- In one line: Still-lofty growth remains very exposed to a further slowdown.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The Philippines' slowdown resumes, but less dramatically than expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines cooled only modestly in Q4 to 5.6%, from 6.0% in Q3...
- ...Trade and government spending were big drags, offset inconsequentially by inventories and noise.
- Fixed investment was the only real bright spot, but this is also benefiting still from the Covid catch-up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s partial trade numbers for January point to a sharp monthly correction in two-way flows.
- The absolute retail sales numbers cast a lot of doubt over the supposedly gentle slide in growth.
- Headline inflation is likely to remain sticky in H1, but it should inevitably follow the core rate down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Ignore the Tet noise, two-way trade started 2024 poorly
Retail sales had an abysmal January, too, leaving aside the rose-tinted headline
Headline stickiness is masking a persistent decline in core inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A welcome two-sided improvement, but Thai net trade should hit Q4 GDP
Don’t be fooled by the apparent recovery in Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for January suggest the decline in momentum late last year has run its course.
- Philippine GDP grow th likely slowed to 4.8% in Q4, from 5.9% in Q3; consumption growth is tanking.
- Thai exports were firm in December, but Q4 was largely flat; vice versa for imports, hitting GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
MALAYSIA’S Q4 GDP DISAPPOINTS SUBSTANTIALLY...
- ...INDIA’S ADVANCE ESTIMATE FOR 2023/24 GDP IS FARCICAL
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No cuts until inflation is comfortably below target; that is, in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: No cuts until inflation is comfortably below target; that is, in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean non-oil domestic export growth fell into the red in December, as we predicted...
- ...With support to the headline from volatile categories unwinding, and electronics weakening.
- Sticking to our Q2 call for BI rate cuts; policy easing has started in less urgent conditions in the past.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net trade will likely shave 0.4pp off Indonesia's Q4 GDP growth, supporting our soft 4.7% forecast...
- ...But the underlying trends are positive; import base effects and stalling tourism will be to blame.
- India’s trade gap has narrowed swiftly from the record low in October; we examine the main drivers.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Can’t rely on favourable oil price effects going forward.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Exports are improving, but demand still isn’t firing on all fronts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Indonesian exports are improving, but demand still isn’t firing on all fronts
Plenty of reassuring details from India’s December WPI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India rose modestly in December, to 5.7%, on the back of a—final—leap in food inflation.
- The core inflation picture keeps improving; ultimately this will dictate the path of the headline.
- The year-long upswing in industrial production growth is over, leaving aside the acute Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- PM Srettha’s call for cuts is reasonable, but the BoT now has more reason to hold firm in the short run.
- Domestic demand in the Philippines ended 2023 on a bad note, based on a number of indicators.
- The EuroCham BCI for Vietnam rose minimally in Q4, which doesn’t bode well for Q1 GDP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The CPI report has yet to pick-up the correction in onion prices; don’t panic over the Diwali-related crash in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The CPI report has yet to pick-up the correction in onion prices; don’t panic over the Diwali-related crash in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian sales growth is barely keeping its head above water
A welcome widening of the Philippines’ trade deficit in November
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
