US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Homebase suggests modest downside risk to Octo- ber payrolls, but margins of error are wide.
- Unemployment is creeping higher as labor force growth surges, but the monthly data are wild cards.
- The ISM services index is holding up, but is trending sideways, and medium-term risk is to the downside.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Unit labor costs consistent with the inflation target, if sustained
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Higher rates are putting the brakes on the recovery in manufacturing.
US
- The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
- Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
- Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Labor cost inflation is slowing; further progress likely, depressing core services PCE inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Consumers' confidence likely to rebound from here; the manufacturing recovery is stalling.
US
- The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
- ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
- Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US