Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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10 November 2023 US Monitor Households' Debt Servicing Costs will Rise Further, but Remain Manageable

  • Households’ debt service ratios have edged higher since the Fed starting raising rates, but remain low.
  • Debt service costs will rise further, but are unlikely to trigger sudden cuts to discretionary spending.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely improved in November, and inflation expectations probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

9 November 2023 US Monitor How a Soft Landing Base Case Becomes a Full-Blown Recession

  • Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
  • The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
  • In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

8 November 2023 US Monitor Inventories are Wild, but they are Likely to be a Big Drag on Q4 GDP

  •  Inventories are noisy and can’t be forecast with confi- dence, but signs point to drag on Q4 GDP growth.
  • Real personal incomes after tax fell outright in the third quarter, but will rebound in the fourth...
  • ...Spending, though, likely will head in the opposite direction, we see few signs of an impending rollover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 November 2023 US Monitor Fewer Banks are Tightening Credit Standards, but no one is Easing

  • The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows slightly fewer banks are still tightening lending standards…
  • …But on one is easing lending standards, and tight credit will constrain growth for the foreseeable future.
  • Consumer credit growth likely rebounded in September, but the trend is slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 November 2023 US Monitor The Labor Market is Softening, but it is not Rolling Over

  • The gradual downshift in job growth continues, but labor demand is not collapsing.
  • If unemployment hits 4%, the Fed will struggle to jus- tify sticking to the line that it could hike again.
  • Wage growth is slowing, with a further softening in the pipeline; further policy tightening is unnecessary.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, October

Signalling softer spending on services after the summer blowout.


3 November 2023 US Monitor October Payrolls Likely Corrected After the September Spike

  • Homebase suggests modest downside risk to Octo- ber payrolls, but margins of error are wide.
  • Unemployment is creeping higher as labor force growth surges, but the monthly data are wild cards.
  • The ISM services index is holding up, but is trending sideways, and medium-term risk is to the downside.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, October

Higher rates are putting the brakes on the recovery in manufacturing.


2 November 2023 US Monitor Chair Powell Sticks to the Line, but the Data Should Prevent a Dec. Hike

  • The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
  • Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
  • Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. ECI, Q3

Labor cost inflation is slowing; further progress likely, depressing core services PCE inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/Chicago PMI

Consumers' confidence likely to rebound from here; the manufacturing recovery is stalling.


1 November 2023 US Monitor More of the Same from Chair Powell Today; Optionality Still Needed

  • The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
  • ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
  • Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

31 October 2023 US Monitor Wage Pressures Likely Faded Further in Q3, Supporting Fed Doves

  • The ECI is the Fed’s favored measure of labor cost pressures; expect more good news in the Q3 data...
  • ...We see downside risk to the consensus, but other wages data don’t consistently signal ECI swings.
  • Consumers’ confidence likely dipped this month, but lower gas prices should support a year-end uptick.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

30 October 2023 US Monitor Falling Real After-tax Incomes Mean Q4 Spending is Likely to Slow

  • The spike in Q4 consumption is likely to prove a onetime phenomenon; real after-tax incomes are falling…
  • …Sustained 4% consumption would require a steep drop in savings to a record low; possible but unlikely.
  • Core PCE inflation is still falling; the September jump in core services prices will not be repeated.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. GDP, Q3 Advance

Headline obscures weak capex; Q4 GDP growth will be weaker

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade & Orders/Jobless Claims

Core orders nudging up; jobless claims likely will rise further through year-end.


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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence