US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Labor market slack is gradually building.
July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.
- The S&P Global PMI points to underlying growth returning to the rapid pace seen in 2024.
- That seems unlikely to us, given the many headwinds to growth, mostly due to tariffs.
- We doubt the jump in services inflation suggested by the PMI will materialize either.
July bounce in starts likely noise; underlying trends remain weak.
- Home sales have remained very weak despite recoveries in both supply and mortgage applications.
- That suggests to us that asking prices are too high, and need to come down for the market to clear.
- Home prices have already fallen by about 1% since March and we think a further grind lower lies ahead.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes sharp cuts to federal health spending, mostly affecting Medicaid.
- That will probably be a minor long-term headwind for the sector in the coming years.
- But the hit will take time to arrive, and the long-term tailwind from an ageing population looks far bigger.
THE ECONOMY WILL REMAIN STUCK IN A LOW GEAR IN H2
- UNEMPLOYMENT WILL WORRY THE FED MORE THAN INFLATION
The outlook for homebuilding remains grim.
- Foreigners are not “paying” for President Trump’s tariffs: pre-tariff import prices are holding steady…
- …That leaves US consumers and businesses shouldering nearly all of the additional costs.
- Homebase data point to a rebound in private payrolls, but likely give a misleading signal.
Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.
- Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
- ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
- We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.
