3 November 2025 US Monitor Indicators of consumers' spending are starting to flash amber

• Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
• Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
• Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, September 2025

Rates still too high for a sustained housing market renaissance.

31 October 2025 US Monitor Chair Powell's tariff math needs some improvement

• We calculate tariffs have lifted core PCE inflation by 0.4pp, below Mr. Powell’s “five to six tenths” estimate.
• Pass-through, however, is probably just over half complete, and services inflation will fall next year.
• The looming suspension of SNAP benefits could hit GDP by 0.2% if paused through the end of Q4.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, October 2025

Services inflation likely to remain in check.

PM Datanote: US CPI, September 2025

Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, September 2025

Lower mortgage rates boost sales, but major headwinds remain.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, September 2025

Rock-bottom response rate casts doubt over reliability.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, October 2025

Shutdown hit limited for now, but strong headwinds remain.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, September 2025

An unreliable guide to growth in services spending.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2025

Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, September 2025

Far from definitive.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, September 2025

Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, August 2025

Drops in the openings-to-unemployment ratio and quits signals slower wage growth ahead.