Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

30 January 2024 US Monitor The JOLTS quits rate is more important than headline job openings

  • We’re much more interested in the JOLTS quits rate than the headline job openings number…
  • …Surging quits warned of the 21-to-22 jump in wage gains; the signal now is to the downside.
  • Soaring stocks and cheaper gas are boosting consumers’ sentiment; will spending follow?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

29 January 2024 US Monitor The consumer looks set fair in the first quarter; later outlook is more cloudy

  • Consumption is on track for another solid increase in Q1, but cashflow growth is slowing…
  • Spending growth likely will moderate in the spring, but a serious weakening requires rising layoffs.
  • Core inflation is slowing on all fronts; faster margin compression would intensify the downward pressure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: GDP, Q4 advance

Inflation matters more than the GDP overshoot, and it looks great.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Durable Goods Orders/Weekly Jobless Claims

Demand for core capital goods remains weak; rebound in claims does not change the low and flat trend.

US

26 January 2024 US Monitor Inflation is tamed, and that matters more to the Fed than strong growth

  • The excellent Q4 inflation numbers are much more important than the overshoot in Q4 GDP growth.
  • The core PCE deflator likely rose 0.2% in December, but 0.1% is much more likely than 0.3%.
  • Pending home sales probably rebounded strongly in December, with further gains ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

25 January 2024 US Monitor Downside risks prevail for Q4 GDP growth, but the range is wide

  • We see downside risks for Q4 GDP growth, but the uncertainties over inventories and trade are great.
  • The core PCE deflator likely rose at a 2.0% annualized rate for the second straight quarter.
  • December’s durable goods orders likely flattered by aircraft; new home sales probably rebounded.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

24 January 2024 US Monitor Recovery in housing will partly offset slowing growth in other sectors

  • Housing market activity looks primed for a rebound this year, but no return to Covid-boom levels.
  • Residential construction will provide a small boost to overall growth, partly offsetting weakness elsewhere.
  • The upturn in existing home prices requires more supply, which means prices will flatline, at best.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

23 January 2024 US Monitor Downside risk for Q4 GDP growth, but inventories and trade are wildcards

  • Risks to Thursday’s Q4 GDP print are mostly to the downside, but trade and inventories are wildcards.
  • Solid consumption propelled final demand, offsetting sluggish business capex and flat housing spending.
  • The core PCE deflator probably rose at a 2.0% annualized rate, for the second straight quarter.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

January 2024 - US Economic Chartbook

  • RESISTANCE IS CRUMBLING...
    ...THE FED WILL START EASING IN MARCH OR MAY

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Consumer Sentiment/Existing Home Sales

Consistent with another solid consumption print in Q1.

US

22 January 2024 US Monitor The Fed wants to ease slowly, but their forecasts lean too far towards caution

  • The Fed is understandably cautious after the “transitory” mess, but its rate forecasts are too cautious.
  • We expect the FOMC gradually to lower both its inflation and rate forecasts, starting in March.
  • Soaring consumer sentiment, thanks to cheaper gas and rising stocks, signals continued solid spending.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Housing Starts/Philly Fed

Starts data are noisy, but a modest housing recovery is underway.

US

19 January 2024 US Monitor Shutdown averted by yet another kicking of the can; no real deal in sight

  • The House likely will vote to prevent a government shutdown today, but no real progress on spending.
  • Governor Waller doesn’t know how the CPI revisions will play out, they’re as likely to be good as bad.
  • Existing home sales likely little changed in December, but consumers’ confidence is improving.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, December

UAW strike impact fully reversed in December; manufacturing output ex-autos is still falling outright.

US

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, December

A solid end to 2023 means a positive carryover into Q1.

US

18 January 2024 US Monitor Solid spending means exemplary PCE data are needed for March Fed ease

  • The December retail sales report was much stronger than expected, and revisions were minimal.
  • We now think real consumption spending rose at a 2.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter.
  • The Fed would prefer softer numbers, but what really matters to policymakers is the inflation picture.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,