Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, August

Expectations index still points to faster real consumption growth in H2, but we are not convinced. 

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

30 August 2023 US Monitor Labor Market Inflation Risk is Receding Faster than the Fed Thinks

  • The quits rate is back to the pre-Covid level, pointing to a sustained slowing in wage growth.
  • Net exports likely will boost Q3 GDP growth, but the boost will be partly offset by an inventory correction.
  • Pending home sales likely were little changed in July, but new lows are likely before year-end. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 August 2023 US Monitor GDPNow Probably is Substantially Overstating Q3 GDP Growth

  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model likely is substantially overstating Q3 GDP growth…
  • …Consumption and inventories probably will be much weaker than the model suggests.
  • Consumers’ confidence likely dipped a bit in August; stock and gas prices imply a further hit in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole

Cautious optimism coupled with clear determination to take no chances with the inflation outlook.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 August 2023 US Monitor Caveats Galore, but the Fed is Likely Done

  • Chair Powell’s cautious optimism at Jackson Hole is no surprise; the Fed can’t afford to be wrong again.
  • Markets will price-in sustained disinflation long before the Fed declares victory.
  • Our base case is that the Fed is done, but a final rate hike remains perhaps a 30% probability.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Back to trend, and likely to be flat through year-end

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, July

Huge drop in headline is aircraft-related noise; real core capital goods orders are still falling.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

25 August 2023 US Monitor Mr. Powell is More Likely to Talk About 2024 than Near-Term Rate Decisions

  • Chair Powell will not declare victory at Jackson Hole today; he will retain clear policy optionality...
  • ...He will acknowledge that inflation is falling, but will highlight the still-tight labor market.
  • Core capital goods orders are still falling, despite the uptick in capex intentions surveys.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 August 2023 US Monitor Payroll Benchmark Revisions Say Nothing about the Future

  • The downward benchmark revision to March payrolls says nothing about the near-term outlook…
  • …But the emerging softening in growth in spending on discretionary services is a hint of trouble ahead.
  • Ignore the plunge in headline July durable goods orders today; the key number is core capex orders.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales

More of the same; nothing will change until mortgage rates fall significantly.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

23 August 2023 US Monitor Stronger Growth is the Key Driver of Rising Yields; Peak is Close

  • The back-up in yields is mostly due to stronger-than-expected economic growth…
  • …The next data suprises likely will be to the downside, so we expect a Treasury rally through year-end.
  • Starkly different supply pictures explain the gap in performance between new and existing home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 August 2023 US Monitor The Fed Has to Hit 2% Before it Can Talk About a Higher Inflation Target

  • If the Fed were setting an inflation target today with a blank sheet of paper, it likely would be above 2%…
  • …But the paper is not blank, and officials can’t begin to talk about a higher target until they get back to 2%.
  • Existing home sales likely were low and little changed in July; the market is not recovering.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 August 2023 US Monitor Most of the Hit from Fed Rate Hikes to GDP Growth has Yet to be Felt

  • Rate hikes take a year-and-a-half—at least—to feed through fully into slower economic growth.
  • …The impact from the Fed’s 525bp in hikes therefore, will become clear only in mid-2024, at the earliest.
  • Both Homebase and the NFIB survey signal 200K-ish private job growth in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims/Philly Fed Survey

Trend in claims is flattening; Philly Fed jump is likely noise.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, July

Autos to the rescue once again, but the outlook for manufacturing remains bleak.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, July

Rising single-family starts will continue to offset falling multi-family starts.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

17 August 2023 US Monitor Trend in Jobless Claims is Flattening, Despite Yellow Corp. Bankruptcy

  • The collapse of Yellow Corporation, a major trucking company, has temporarily boosted jobless claims…
  • …But all the leading indicators we track signal little change in jobless claims over the next few months.
  • The minutes from the July FOMC point to a widening gap between the doves and the hawks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index, August

A temporary departure from the otherwise-upwards trend.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales/Empire State Manufacturing Survey

It's too soon to conclude that consumers' spending growth is reaccelerating.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence