2 June 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ Disinflation is Accelerating; the ECB will be Done Next Month

• Core inflation in the EZ is now being pulled lower by disinflation in goods; services will follow later.
• The EZ inflation data support our call that the ECB will end its hiking cycle in July.
• Punchy wage growth won’t keep the ECB hiking beyond July, but it is an upside risk for rates in 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Advance Inflation & Unemployment, EZ, May/April 2023

In one line: Disinflation is intensifying.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, May 2023

In one line: Small upward revision doesn’t change bleak outlook. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, April 2023

In one line: Hopefully the beginning of a modest rebound. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 June 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ Core Inflation will Undershoot the Consensus Today

•  Advance data point to a downside surprise in today’s EZ inflation report; fade hawkish ECB-speak.
• German core inflation is now rolling over, irrespective of summer volatility in transport services.
• The May CPI in France points to cracks in the national core rate; surveys suggest more to come.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, May 2023

In one line:  Falling, sharply. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, May 2023

In one line:  Leading indicators are a mixed bag.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, May/April 2023

In one line: Disinflation has arrived in the EZ. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, May 2023

In one line: More evidence of downside risks to growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, April 2023

In one line: Still recessionary. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone