Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

21 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor The July jump in EZ construction is misleading; the trend is falling

  •  EZ construction output rose at the start of Q3, but don’t extrapolate; the sector is stuck in a downturn.
  • Surveys indicate that building activity is crashing, but civil engineering is looking better.
  • Investment in construction slowed sharply in Q2, and we’re looking for an outright fall in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor We See No Hawkish Surprises in the EZ Inflation Data in Q4

  • Headline and core inflation in the Eurozone remained sticky in August; they will fall back in September.
  • Rising oil prices are only a minor threat to energy inflation at this point; don’t push the panic button.
  • The ECB story is shifting; all eyes are now on the outlook for rate cuts in 2024; we still see two.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor SNB to Follow the ECB This Week and Hike One Last Time

  • Swiss inflation is below the SNB’s target cap, but we think it will still hike this week, for a final time.
  • If so, the key policy rate would peak at 2.0%, well below equivalent rates elsewhere.
  • We expect the SNB to start cutting rates next year as inflation falls significantly below the 2% target cap.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Hourly Wage Growth & Trade, EZ, Q2/July

In one line: Don’t read too much into the slowdown in hourly wage cost growth; net trade in goods will be a drag on GDP in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor ECB Hawks Are Threatening a December Hike; We Don't Buy It

  • EZ hourly labour-cost growth slowed in Q2, due mainly to favourable calendar adjustments.
  • Trade data for July suggest that net exports will be a drag on EZ GDP growth in Q3, again.
  • Inflation in France was revised a touch higher in August, but the trend in the core is now downward.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, September 2023

In one line: The bar for further hikes is high; no mention of cuts, yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor The Monetary Policy Tightening Cycle in the Eurozone Is Over

  •  The ECB lifted its key policy rates yesterday; this was likely the last hike in this tightening cycle.
  • The central bank now sees headline inflation returning to target by the end of 2025, just.
  • We still see a window for rate cuts next year, but it is narrowing; we look for cuts in March and April.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor Beware the Seasonal Fluctuations in the EZ Services PMI

  •  The PMIs are one of the best leading indicators for GDP in the EZ, but beware the post-Covid seasonals.
  • Our analysis suggests a structural break in the seasonal adjustment of services since 2021.
  • If we're right, the services PMIs will tend to be biased to the upside in Q2, but down in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, September 2023

In one line: ZEW suggests it will get worse before it gets better. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor Official EU Growth Forecasts are Now Falling; More to Come

  • The focus on the EC’s GDP downgrades is much ado about nothing; our forecasts are lower still.
  • The new inflation forecasts are in line with the ECB’s, and therefore higher than ours.
  • The ZEW suggests September is the trough for the fall in German private-sector activity; will it be?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor Macro Data Have Turned Against the Euro, but Rates Haven't

  • Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials suggest EURUSD should be a lot higher...
  • ...But the trend in political uncertainty suggests it is exactly where it is supposed to be.
  • The relative downshift in the EZ PMIs hint at a return to parity for EURUSD; we're not buying it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, August

In one line: Inflation in motor fuel is rising, temporarily; the core will fall sharply in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence