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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: Final Composite PMIs, Eurozone, November

In one line: Pointing to downside risks still, but probably overdoing it.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 December 2024 Eurozone Monitor A close call, but we still look for a 50bp rate cut from SNB next week

  • Swiss inflation edged up but remains low enough for the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 50bp next week...
  • ...New Chairman Martin Schlegel’s recent comments support our call for a bigger-than-consensus cut.
  • French budget woes are pulling the OAT-Bund spread up towards the 100bp mark.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 December 2024 Eurozone Monitor Outlook for Italy decent, but downside risks remain

  • Detailed data show a jump in consumers’ spending prevented a fall in Italian GDP in Q3.
  • Consumers will continue to lead the way, and we are revising up our call for Q4 growth.
  • But GDP will still likely rise by just 0.5% this year, half of the government’s latest forecast.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Italy, Q3 2024 & Unemployment, EZ, Oct 2024

In one line: Consumers came to the rescue for Italy in Q3; Still no dovishness in EZ labour market data.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: German Unemployment & ECB CES, Nov/Oct 2024

In one line: German joblessness is still rising; rise in inflation expectations a lagged effect of rebounding inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November 2024

In one line: Rising enough to prevent a 50bp cut in December, we think. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October 2024

In one line:  A setback, but seasonals look unduly restrictive. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2024

In one line: Switzerland will still outperform the EZ this year, despite slower growth in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, November 2024

In one line: HICP headline likely held back by falling food inflation, but the core firmed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, November 2024

In one line: Headline oddly stable; consumer inflation expectations surge.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 December 2024 EZ Monitor ECB likely to cut by 25bp this month, and the same in January

  • The scene is set for a hard-fought ECB meeting later this month; we still look for a 25bp cut…
  • …But we’re adding a 25bp cut in January to our forecasts, as ECB doves now have the upper hand.
  • Swiss GDP growth slowed a touch in Q3, but we look for a rebound in Q4; the SNB will cut in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

November 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB DOVES STILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND...

  • ...BUT THEY WON’T GET A 50BP CUT IN DECEMBER

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Slight upside risk to EZ headline and core inflation today

  • We still see EZ HICP inflation at 2.3% in November, but we’re lifting our core forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.9%.
  • Our model, based on the negative skew in ESI data,still points to low recession risk in the EZ.
  • The upturn in real M1 growth is a positive—andmincreasingly contrarian—signal for the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK/NIM Consumer Confidence, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Politics rattle German consumers; we doubt falling sentiment will be reflected in spending figures. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,