Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Improving, but still subdued.
- EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
- We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17.
- If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda.
In one line: Positive pick-up in services, but downside risks loom in industrial output.
- September’s first business survey from INSEE for France suggests the outlook is still weak.
- We look for a small rise in the Eurozone’s flash PMIs next week, but they will still point to slow growth.
- Other surveys, such as Germany’s IFO BCI and the EC consumer sentiment gauge, likely advanced too.
In one line: A decent start to Q3, but the carry-over is still negative.
- It will be a close call but we see more reasons for the SNB to cut its key policy rate next week than to hold.
- Inflation is low and set to fall, while other tools will not be as effective in fighting deflationary pressures.
- We look for the Swiss central bank to cut by 25bp to -0.25%, leaving it the lowest policy rate in the world.
In one line: All set for a rebound into year-end.
- We think a rebound in inflation will now close the window on further monetary policy easing.
- Risks are asymmetric, however; the ECB will either cut or hold in the next three-to-six months.
- A near-term downside surprise in core inflation and further euro strength will prompt doves to pounce.
In one line: Industry barely budged in early Q3.
In one line: Lifted by rebound in equities.
- Our fair-value model for bunds points to little near-term upside to yields, due to falling US rates.
- We estimate that fiscal stimulus in Germany will add around 30bp to bund yields between now and 2027.
- Overall, we see a slow rise in bund yields to 3% by 2027, implying limited near-term upside.
In one line: The drag on GDP from net trade in goods is disappearing.
- The Eurozone’s nominal goods trade surplus rose at the start of Q3, as imports fell further than exports.
- The bloc’s trade surplus with the US is now half what it was before the Trump administration took power.
- Net trade in goods will likely have a neutral impact on Q3 GDP, despite the increase in US tariffs in August.
In one line: A cyclical low; a gentle rebound now lies ahead.
In one line: A further near-term rise is coming before a plunge in early 2026.
- Fiscal easing to reduce energy prices will lower German inflation by 0.4-to-0.5pp in January.
- Eurozone employment growth eased in Q2, continuing the downward trend since 2022…
- …Hiring is falling in manufacturing and agriculture, even as it holds up well in construction and services.
In one line: The ECB is happy at 2%, for now.
In one line: ECB doves need better persuasion skills.
- The ECB stands pat, despite lowering its headline and core inflation forecast for 2027; why?
- A more balanced growth outlook and a relatively high neutral rate mean the ECB is happy, for now.
- Has the bar for easing been lifted or is the risk of a Q4 cut now higher? It could be both, actually.
In one line: Held back by a drop in energy.
