Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The SNB left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, despite raising its inflation forecasts.
- Our 2027 inflation forecasts are still higher than the Bank’s; we think a rate hike is likely in 2027.
- Uncertainty around our call is high and financial markets expect a rate hike later than we do.
In one line: Still supportive of another ECB hike.
- Based on current oil prices, and our forecast for the June HICP, the ECB will hold fire in July…
- …but we still think the bank will tighten by 50bp in the end, so we now see a final hike in September.
- Inflation is now on track to undershoot the ECB’s forecast this year, but not in 2027.
- Eurozone labour costs were rising by just over 3% year-over-year at the start of 2026…
- …but more timely data suggest the trend in wage growth is now easing temporarily, to just over 2%.
- A jump in ZEW investor sentiment in June is the first evidence of US-Iran peace hopes hitting the data.
- A July hike from the ECB is now a long shot, but markets still see one more hike this year.
- Oil futures are still pricing in a 20% uplift to oil prices over the next 12 months compared to before the war.
- The June survey should have a spring in its step if the US-Iran peace deal survives the next few weeks.
- The SNB will leave rates on hold throughout 2026, unlike its neighbouring central bank, the ECB.
- The SNB’s Q2 projections for inflation in the medium term will be slightly higher than before.
- We expect the Chairman to reiterate the SNB’s willingness to curb the strength of the CHF.
In one line: The ECB will hike again, but when?
In one line: As expected, and further tightening is likely.
- The ECB hiked, and Ms. Lagarde struck a hawkish tone, backed by punchy new inflation forecasts.
- We’re maintaining our view of a back-to-back hike in July, though it remains a close call.
- The ECB is worried that a prolonged energy inflation shock is now driving second-round effects.
In one line: Boosted once again by capital goods.
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
In one line: Looking good for a Q2 rebound in manufacturing.
- A leap in construction boosted German industry in April; core manufacturing is still lagging the surveys.
- Energy-intensive industry in Germany is rebounding, and relative PPI trends point to further gains.
- Nowcast models point to downside risk to German GDP growth in Q2, but it’s still early days.
- The ECB will hike this week, commencing a modest tightening as the US-Iran war drives up inflation.
- An upgrade to the ECB’s 2027 inflation forecast likely will be the main hawkish flash point this week.
- The ECB, faced with the risk of doing too little or too much in light of rising inflation, prefers the latter.
In one line: A setback, but not enough to reverse recent strength.
In one line: Early days, but industry looks on track for a solid Q2.
- A crash in Irish GDP stung EZ growth in Q1, but the trend ex-Ireland was firm before the US-Iran war.
- We see EZ GDP, ex-Ireland, increasing by 0.1% in Q2, before rising a touch quicker in Q3 and Q4, to 0.2%.
- A slowdown in consumption still lies ahead as growth in real incomes takes a hit.
- Swiss inflation was stable at 0.6% in May; we expect it to stay within the 0-to-2% target band during 2027…
- …The SNB will hold rates this month and throughout 2026. Its next move will be a 25bp hike in Q1 2027.
- Revisions to Irish GDP suggest Eurozone GDP fell slightly in Q1, threatening a technical recession in H1.
In one line: All set for a 25bp rate hike next week.
- DM central banks are missing their inflation targets; the ECB seems most keen to rectify this.
- A higher inflation target would be no panacea for the ECB, faced with successive supply-side shocks.
- Our interest rate forecast is consistent with a real policy rate at zero by the middle of 2027.
