EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, November

In one line: Upside risk to German core inflation.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2025

In one line: Q4 will be better.

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct 2025

In one line: Downside risk to EZ core inflation, relative to our forecast.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, October 2025

In one line: Spanish households' spending spree is coming to an end.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Plateauing after strong growth earlier in the year.

EZ Datanote: ESI, EZ, November 2025

In one line: Another survey suggesting ECB easing is over.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply & ISTAT Business Confidence, EZ/Italy, Oct/Nov 2025

In one line: Consistent with faster EZ GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Decent headline, but mixed details.

28 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Thursday's data were for ECB hawks; easing is over in the EZ

• The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy. 
• The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data. 
• It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.

November 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

LITTLE IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT...

• …ECB EASING IS OVER

27 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor BTP-Bund spread has further to fall this year and in early 2026

• The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call. 
• We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. 
• A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, November 2025

In one line: Stabilising, but downside risks loom. 

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q3 2025

In one line: Stung by falling consumption and another hit from falling net trade.

26 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Don't give up on the recovery in Germany just yet

• German Q3 growth was hit by falling consumption, but the spending details are better than the headline.
• Investment in Germany is stabilising, but we’re yet to see evidence of the much hoped-for recovery.
• Jump in government spending was mainly due to welfare spending, but borrowing is rising fast.

25 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: Data unlikely to offer much hope for ECB doves

• We think this week’s inflation data for November will continue to signal Eurozone inflation above 2% in Q4. 
• The acceleration in money supply growth is easing, but it still indicates decent GDP growth. 
• Early Q4 spending data are mixed: we see strength in France and Spain, softness in Germany.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Stalling? 

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, November 2025

In one line: Still pointing to upside risks to our forecast for Q4.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Private sector activity growth slows but Q4 still set to be better than Q3.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence & Advance PMIs, France, November 2025

In one line: Solid headlines in services; weakness coming in industrial output.