EZ LEADING INDICATORS ARE THROWING OFF MIXED SIGNALS
- ...WHICH ONES SHOULD YOU TRUST?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Edging down, in line with deteriorating overall business sentiment in France and Germany
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stable, but unemployment fears are creeping higher.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still pointing to an improvement in growth, in contrast to the business surveys.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Plunging French and German business confidence raises the probability of a rate cut in September…
- …but we’re sceptical whether these data should be trusted as reliable leading indicators for Q3 GDP.
- Our index of the credit impulse, M1 growth and credit standards points to stronger EZ GDP growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hanging on for dear life, but also likely underestimating the pace of growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: PMI lower by weakness in manufacturing; services and consumer sentiment are looking much better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: PMI lower by weakness in manufacturing; services and consumer sentiment are looking much better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Poor, but GDP growth is stronger than implied by the headlines.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ composite PMI is on the verge of falling below 50; will it matter for Q3 growth? Probably not.
- Manufacturing remains the weak spot, according to the PMIs, while services are still relatively robust.
- The EZ output price PMI in services fell further in July; inflation will follow, eventually.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain…
- ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed.
- So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We’re flying half-blind on Q2 GDP data in Germany, but we’re lifting our forecasts slightly, all the same.
- Construction investment was a drag on growth in Q2, but consumers’ spending likely rebounded.
- Our forecasts for Germany for the rest of 2024 see domestic demand now rebounding.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The headline should soon fall; foreign demand for EZ assets remain strong.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week sees a raft of business surveys for July; we expect increases across the board.
- Political uncertainty in France is a threat, but the unclear outcome of the elections removes tail risks...
- ...German industrial surveys were too weak in June, given early signs from hard data; they will rebound.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: "September is wide open”, apparently.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: No signal of a cut in September; we look for such a signal at the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction fell back in Q2, after a decent Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services is sticky as ever, and it won’t drop meaningfully anytime soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
