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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

28 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor Cover Your Bund Shorts Ahead of Today's German CPI Print

  • German inflation dived in September, pulled lower by falling inflation in both core and energy.
  • The slowdown in M1 continues, and we still think it is worth watching as a leading indicator.
  • Spain’s search for a new government goes on; repeat elections look increasingly likely.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

September 2023 - EZ Economic Chartbook



Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor Inventories and Foreign Trade will Weigh on French Growth in Q3

  •  A shift in the net balance of foreign trade and inventories will weigh on French GDP in Q3.
  • Consumers’ spending in France is likely rebounding now, but investment has further to fall.
  • Our full-year forecasts for growth in 2023 and 2024 imply further downside for official forecasts.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor Is Germany the new Sick Man of Europe? The Cyclical Data say Yes

  • German business surveys stabilised at the end of Q3, but still paint a bleak near-term picture.
  • We look for a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 GDP, and risks are tilted to the downside.
  • We are nudging our forecasts for 2024 growth down by 0.2pp, to 0.8%; further downgrades are possible.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, September 2023

In one line: Rebound in expectations is positive, but the near-term outlook remains poor.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ on Track for a Q3 Fall; All is Not as It Seems in the PMIs

  • The EZ Composite PMI rose in September but still points to GDP falling by 0.5% q/q in Q3...
  • ...We think the drop will be smaller, as the services PMI is likely being distorted by seasonals.
  • Upward revisions to Italian GDP are a relief but don’t offer much fiscal leeway for next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, September

In one line: Not pretty; the rebound in services looks like an issue with seasonal adjustments. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor The July jump in EZ construction is misleading; the trend is falling

  •  EZ construction output rose at the start of Q3, but don’t extrapolate; the sector is stuck in a downturn.
  • Surveys indicate that building activity is crashing, but civil engineering is looking better.
  • Investment in construction slowed sharply in Q2, and we’re looking for an outright fall in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor We See No Hawkish Surprises in the EZ Inflation Data in Q4

  • Headline and core inflation in the Eurozone remained sticky in August; they will fall back in September.
  • Rising oil prices are only a minor threat to energy inflation at this point; don’t push the panic button.
  • The ECB story is shifting; all eyes are now on the outlook for rate cuts in 2024; we still see two.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence