Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, May 2024

In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Markets still underestimating the amount of SNB easing

  • Swiss inflation held steady in May but is likely to fall in the coming months, to around just 1% by August.
  • Weak growth will drag down domestic inflation, and gas & oil prices point to a falling imported rate.
  • The SNB will probably cut its key policy rate again this week, by 25bp to 1.25%; more cuts are likely.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Nasty, especially in the core, but it’ll get better soon.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor EU tariffs on Chinese EVs are not the start of a trade war

  • The EU is about to hit Chinese EV producers with tariffs, but this is not a full-blown trade war. 
  • Services inflation is rising, judging by German May CPI, but leading indicators point to weakness soon. 
  • German bond yields should fall between now and end-2024, but they will rebound next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will RN win an absolute majority? Initial poll suggests not

  • Le Pen’s RN is on track to become the biggest party in the National Assembly, but without a majority.
  • What is the ECB watching over the summer to determine its move in September? We list the key data.
  • Inflation data will support a rate cut in September, but what about wages, margins and productivity?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Italian IP, Sentix and French Parliamentary Elections

In one line: Disappointin manufacturing in Italy, a still-rising Sentix and political drama in France.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Domestic political risk returns to Eurozone financial markets

  • Europe has swung to the right in the EP elections, but not dramatically so; Greens and Liberals lost big. 
  • Snap parliamentary elections in France could well hand Marine Le Pen the job of prime minister. 
  • Would a RN government ruin the party’s chance of a successful presidential bid in 2027? Perhaps.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, EZ, Q1

In one line: Net exports did the heavy lifting, but the trend in consumption looks decent.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The EZ economy is in the early stages of a cyclical upturn

  • A mini-boom in EZ consumption is coming, judging by the trend in real disposable income growth.
  • The inventory cycle reached a trough in Q1; gross capital formation will rebound from here.
  • Net exports soared at the start of 2024 but will likely be a drag on growth for the rest of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The ECB gets a cut over the line, and we'll get another in September

  • The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely. 
  • We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March. 
  • For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The sovereign debt downgrade in France that 'never happened'

  • The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come? 
  • Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1. 
  • The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,