Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- GDP growth in Vietnam surprised massively to the upside in Q4, rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3…
- …But we still expect to see a sustained moderation this year; our revised 2026 forecast is 7.5%.
- Export momentum has almost vanished, FDI is rolling over, and wage growth is softening.
- Singapore ended 2025 strongly, with GDP growth accelerating to 5.7% in Q4, from 4.3% in Q3.
- Manufacturing drove the uptick, led by pharmaceuticals and electronics exports…
- …We think the headline was inflated by tariff-related front-loading that could fade in coming quarters.
The H2 surge in ASEAN manufacturing ends on a soft note
Slump in Indonesian export growth should soon bottom-out
Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation in Indonesia
- India’s punchy November IP print is a big head-fake; cooling manufacturing will hit Q4 GDP growth.
- Thailand’s exports to the US are still soaring, but likely to no real avail for the broader economy…
- …The overall Q4 numbers to date suggest the economy faces a real risk of a technical recession.
- Taiwan’s CBC held rates steady last week; strong growth has removed the need for easing…
- …Still, growth is increasingly precarious, with exports—and GDP—heavily reliant on the AI boom.
- The silver lining is the CBC can now save a rate cut for when a genuine shock materialises.
- In one line: No rate cut needed.
- In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.
- In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.
- BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
- …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
- The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.
An anticlimactic end for India’s PMIs to 2025
Q3 SHOULD BE THE PEAK IN INDIA’S ABSURD GDP DATA
- …TAIWANESE EXPORTS SHOWING NO SIGN OF PAUSING
- India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
- …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
- A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.
- In one line: Historic leap in gold imports in October unwinds dramatically.
Upstream food price pressures in India are reviving more noticeably
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
Malaysian retail sales are pretty static, again.
- The November bounce in Indian inflation was due mainly to lingering Diwali-related noise in food…
- …Supply points to a persistent rise in food CPI in 2026, but low expectations will be a ‘core’ anchor.
- Malaysian retail sales growth is still flat, but the government is trying to boost tourism for 2026.
BSP easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%
- The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
- …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
- Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.
A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth
