- India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
- Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
- Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Only a small respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November
The mean-reversion in Indian’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact
Adverse food price base effects in Indonesia will now unwind
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November won’t last long, with demand still deteriorating…
- …Export-oriented countries continue to cause the most misery; supply-side issues are re-emerging.
We no longer expect BI to start cutting this month, following the upside surprise in
- November CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Q3 was better than Q2, but the headline continues to be flattered absurdly by statistical discrepancies.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in India slowed trivially in Q3, to 7.6%, but the flattery of discrepancies remains absurd.
- The drop in consumption growth is no one-off; finances are weakening and the credit binge is over.
- The impact of tightening is surfacing more clearly in M3, with cash growth down and deposit growth up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Vietnam’s export recovery remains intact, heading into 2024
The contradictory headline rates aside, retail sales growth is clearly regaining momentum
No power price pop to see in November CPI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT finally hit pause yesterday after eight straight hikes, leaving the policy rate, at 2.50%...
- ...We continue to expect 50bp of easing next year; the Bank is behind the curve on GDP and CPI.
- Vietnam’s growth recovery is becoming more broad-based; we now expect Q4 GDP of 5.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
PUBLIC SPENDING CAN’T RESCUE THE PH LONG TERM
- ...Q3 GDP AND OCTOBER CPI MAKE THE BOT LOOK FOOLISH
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai exports and imports in October grew year-over-year—together—for the first time in 13 months.
- But downside risks to exports prevail, and oil effects are largely behind the return of import growth.
- Malaysian inflation cooled further to 1.8% in October, from 1.9%, dropping to a 29-month low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ASEAN is carrying the nascent recovery in Thai exports on its back
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Probably already regretting the October hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Inflation in Singapore spikes on base effects and record COEs
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s fiscal budget for 2024 targets a steep cut in the deficit to 4.3% of GDP, from 5.0% this year...
- …But the deficit is likely to be bigger, with the bulk of the adjustment falling to lower subsidy spending.
- The Fiscal Responsibility Bill, if credible, forces the government into stricter austerity measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI stood pat yesterday after October’s surprise hike; we maintain that easing is just around the corner.
- We no longer expect a fourth 50bp rate cut from the SBV, with M2 growth now clearly turning a corner.
- Jump in Singaporean inflation in October should not distract from a likely sharp drop in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth leapt to -4.4% year-over- year in October, from -13.8% in September...
- ...Supported by friendly base effects, recovering electronics exports and higher commodity prices.
- The factors behind October’s jump are likely to persist over Q4, boosting export growth further.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
- ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
- We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
