26 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BoT hits pause and ups its 2025 outlook post-"Liberation Day" chaos

• The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
• The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
• We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.

25 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's retail sales fall, spelling bad news for Q2 consumption

• Taiwan’s retail sales fell for a second straight month, because of a slump in vehicle sales...
• ...Reports suggest consumers are holding off purchases, hoping for a reduction in import tariffs.
• Malaysian inflation fell to its lowest in 51 months, due to a decline in services inflation.

24 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Solid end to Q2, but India's PMIs still point to soft-ish GDP growth

• India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
• …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
• Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 June 2025

A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, May

• In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.

23 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Collapsing commodity demand weighs on Malaysian exports

• Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
• …Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
• Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.

20 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts

• The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
• …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
• The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 June 2025

Export front-running in Thai exports is still going strong

19 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Front-running of Thai exports expanding, but H2 outlook souring

• Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
• …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
• Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.

18 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Singapore's NODX disappointment in May has been on the card

• Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
• The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
• …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, May

• In one line: Led by an overdue correction in oil imports.

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, May

• In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 13 June 2025

March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, May

• In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 June 2025

The RBI front-loads most of this year’s remaining cuts
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US continues apace
Latest electricity-price hike nudges Vietnamese inflation up a touch
Vietnamese retail sales are having a torrid Q2
The resurgence in Philippine sales is topping out

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 June 2025

All clear for another BSP cut this month

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 June 2025

A bounce of sorts, but ASEAN manufacturing is still shaky

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 June 2025

A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner