7 January 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Dissecting Vietnam's Q4 GDP, with one hand tied behind our back

• GDP growth in Vietnam surprised to the upside in Q4, rising to 7.6% from 7.4% in Q3…
• …Services popped, thanks to a leap in tourism, but we’re sceptical about the strength in overall retail.
• Industrial growth—while still healthy—moderated; signs point to more softness in early 2025, at least.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 January 2025

A scorching end to 2024 for Vietnamese services
Exports in Vietnam are once again finding their feet
Not buying the five-month high in Vietnamese sales growth
Vietnamese inflation stays under 3% for a fourth month
Turnaround in Thai transportation & communication CPI should soon peak

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 January 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A few silver linings in otherwise soft December ASEAN PMI

• The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN slipped in December, to 50.7, as its DM members faltered…
• …But the headline is largely stabilising, as orders find their feet while price pressures remain muted.
• Indonesian CPI sprung no surprises in December; consensus seems blind to further food disinflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 January 2025

December manufacturing let down by developed ASEAN
Reassuringly unchanged readings for Indonesian CPI to close out 2024

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 January 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor No clear boost to Thai household spending from first cash handout

• The deceptively inflated rate of Thai retail sales growth masks a tepid response to the handout…
• …Consumer confidence is at least stabilising; rising wage growth, while encouraging, looks very fragile.
• Core IP in India continues to recover from the August plunge, with monthly trends now improving.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 January 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Expect a soft landing for Vietnam's upcoming Q4 GDP report

• Our final forecast sees GDP growth in Vietnam cooling to 6.5% in Q4, from 7.4% in Q3…
• …The moderation should be broad-based, though quirky residual seasonal effects pose upside risks.
• Household spending is still struggling; the recent pop in car sales is a policy-induced head-fake.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia