Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Indonesian CPI came in above expectations in April, mainly reflecting the end of power discounts.
- The consensus for the Philippines’ Q1 GDP is well-positioned; we expect a similar-ish 5.8% print.
- The MAS is likely to ease policy further in July, but October could be more 50-50.
Indonesia’s electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past
- Our bullish forecast for Taiwan’s GDP paid off for Q1, as growth jumped to 5.4% year-over-year.
- Exports surged 20%, driven by extreme front- loading ahead of tariffs set on “Liberation Day”.
- We expect this momentum to slow, as the front-loading inevitably fades in the months ahead.
- In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
Underneath the surface; a weak close to a robust Q1 for Philippine trade
FACTORY ASIA—EX-CHINA—IS DOWN, BUT NOT OUT
- …MORE CUTS TO COME FROM THE RBI AND THE BSP
- The BoT enacted a second straight 25bp rate cut, to 1.75%, in the wake of the US’s tariff aggression…
- …We think it has left the door open to, but also set the bar high for, extra cuts; for now, we see no more.
- Our final GDP forecast for Q1 sees only a minor slip in headline growth to 2.9%, from 3.2% in Q4.
