China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
- Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
- The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
- …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
- We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
- Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
- Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May steady broad credit growth was based mainly on strong government bond issuance, again.
- Private sector credit demand still dull; the M1 uptick isn’t meaningful and will probably reverse in June.
- The financial system is absorbing rapid government bond issuance with no sign of strain; PBoC has tools.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
- ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
- Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Handshakes in London iron out implementation of the US-China deal struck in Geneva, subject to approval.
- The 90-day tariff reprieve revived China’s exports in May, temporarily, with trade diversion to the EU…
- …Uncertainty-induced front-loading demand puts a floor under monthly growth ahead of reprieve expiry.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's services sector expands at a slower pace in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s FX reserves rise modestly as bond revaluation offsets inflows
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line : China's services activity ticks up, but deflationary pressure still lurking in the background.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line : Japanese inflation continues to outpace labour earnings; BoJ likely to hold rates in June.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
- Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
- Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Producer deflation slammed by weakening international energy prices, weather-hit construction activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Chinese private-firm sentiment is holding up reasonably well, despite the tariff chaos.
- Domestic demand appears resilient, albeit far from robust, in the May PMIs.
- The current targeted policy approach is working, so don’t expect any mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ will probably leave its bond-buying plan unchanged, after signs the market is functioning better.
- Thursday’s 30-year bond auction went well, after reports the MOF is likely to slow ultra-long bond issuance.
- The ruling coalition is likely to lose seats in the July Upper House election though, sparking debt worries.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Golden Week boosts May's services activity in China, but overall non-manufacturing weighed down by weak resi-construction
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
