CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 April 2024: PMIs point to services buoyancy in China & Japan

PMIs point to services sector buoyancy in China and Japan

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, March

In one line: Japan’s Tokyo inflation ticks up in March, thanks to a smaller fall in energy prices

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, March

In one line: Manufacturing activity expands for the first time in 6 months 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, March

Chinese manufacturing demand improves after the Lunar New Year holiday 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, March

Korean exports propelled by resurgent semiconductor shipments

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 April 2024: Post-holiday bump in Caixin and Korean PMIs

Post-holiday improvement in Caixin, Korean PMIs; Japanese Tankan fades; Korean exports sustain recovery trend

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 April 2024 China+ Monitor Hopeful signs of a gradually broadening recovery in China

• China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
• A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
• But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's residential property market still festering; no big policy shift yet

• Chinese officials are downplaying the risks linked to the continued struggles of the property sector.
• But the new-housing market showed little sign of reviving in the first two months of 2024.
• Piecemeal policy support is unlikely to bring about a near-term recovery in new-home sales.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 March 2024

China’s industrial profits bounce in February, owing to base effects

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: LPR, China, March

In one line: China lending rates unchanged in March as per market consensus

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

28 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's industrial profits surge on base effects; awaiting spending boost

• China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
• Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
• We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

March 2024 - China+ Chartbook

CHINA+ OUTLOOK

- CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS OFFER ONLY TARGETED STIMULUS
- BOJ EXITS FROM NEGATIVE RATES; NO NEAR-TERM MOVES
- DEMAND FOR HIGH-END CHIPS LIFTS KOREAN EXPORTS

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 March 2024 China+ Monitor FDI into China has weathered the storm, but the waters are still choppy

• China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
• Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
• But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 March 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's wage-price spiral still in its infancy; BoJ admits it moved early

• Japan’s much-heralded wage-price spiral is likely a way off, despite the end of the negative rate policy.
• Household spending dived in January, while consumer inflation is on a cooling trend.
• A PBoC deputy governor on Thursday was relaxed about slowing credit and broad money growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, March

Modest improvement in still-dull Japanese manufacturing activity reading

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 March 2024: Flash PMIs points to improved activity

Japan's robust services sector contrasts with drab manufacturing activity; Exports still strong, despite headline dip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

22 March 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's sunny service sector clouded by insipid manufacturing activity

• Japan’s March flash manufacturing PMI points to still-tepid activity, though improving modestly.
• The service sector continues to shine brightly, albeit based narrowly on tourism and finance.
• A jump in service-sector input costs is a worrying sign of persistently elevated inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoJ decisions, Japan, March

In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 March 2024

In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

20 March 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ marches towards normalisation, scrapping negative rates and YCC

• The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, while ending YCC and risky asset purchases.
• At the press conference, Governor Ueda’s rhetoric on the future path of the policy rate was neutral.
• Japan’s monetary policy should stay accommodative unless significant inflationary pressures mount.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+