Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 May 2024

Despite tick-up in China CPI, demand is still weak; Producers still battle deflation

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, April

In one line: Chinese producers still battle deflation

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, April

China's big money and credit misses reflect fund diversion and slow government bond issuance, rather than shifts in underlying credit demand  

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 May 2024 China+ Monitor April data likely to show tentative improvement in China's recovery

  • China’s industrial output likely picked up steam in April, thanks to a modest export rise.
  • Falling auto sales probably hit overall retail sales growth, with buyers waiting for further price cuts.
  • Government bond issuance should be stepped up from May, heeding clear top-down policy direction.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 May 2024: China's exports see only modest improvement

Only modest improvement in China's headline exports; imports rise in anticipation of stimulus impact; Japanese broad wages yet to turn around

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's exports recoup lost ground in April, thanks to base effects

  • China export growth bounced in April, thanks partly to receding high base from last year.
  • Adjusted for seasonal factors, monthly exports actually steepened its fall, pointing to still fragile recovery.
  • While exports share to US decreased over the years, those to Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, April

In one line: China’s FX reserves fell sharply in April, thanks to a stronger dollar and a record rise in US yields  

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 May 2024 China+ Monitor PSL funding removal likely heralding policy-bank bond issuance

  • April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
  • The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
  • The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

7 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's broadening services recovery will go only so far

  • China’s Q1 GDP grew solidly, thanks to vigorous manufacturing output and services growth.
  • Services growth is broadening to business services, but the consumption recovery is relatively lacklustre.
  • China will follow its own reform path at the Third Plenum, rather than adopting Western prescriptions.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+


In one line: Korean export recovery continues, thanks to resilient US and Chinese demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 May 2024: Korean PMI points to cost pressures

Korean manufacturers are highly bullish, despite mounting cost pressures

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 May 2024 China+ Monitor Glass-half-full Korean PMI: higher output but also higher costs

  • Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
  • But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
  • The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 May 2024 China+ Monitor Korea's export recovery continues, bolstered by microchip revival

  • Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
  • Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
  • Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 April 2024

Chinese industrial profits continue to improve in Q1 despite March's slowdown

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMIs, China, April

Manufacturing output in rude health, though the PMIs provide contrasting readings for new orders

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 April 2024: Manufacturing PMIs point to robust output

China's PMIs indicate manufacturing output surge, despite mixed demand readings; services activity suffers post-holiday dip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's output rebound continues; Politburo tone more confident

  • Both China’s April PMIs agree that manufacturing output is going from strength to strength...
  • ...But the official gauge shows demand fading slightly, while the Caixin indicates further robustness.
  • It was announced at yesterday’s Politburo meeting the reform-oriented Third Plenum will be held in July.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

April 2024 - China+ Chartbook


Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, April

Tokyo inflation slows due to implementation of free high school education and cooling food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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independent macro research, China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,