China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Korea's exports set back less severe than expected, as tariff reprieve offers breathing space
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s May manufacturing PMI readings diverged, as activity gradually revived post-May 12’s tariff truce.
- Small exporters are likely being hit harder by the trade-policy oscillations, and the détente is already fraying.
- Sentiment has held up surprisingly well, and improved slightly in both manufacturing gauges.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
- May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
- Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korean PMI shows domestic demand tanking, but sentiment is improving thanks to tariff war pause
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer inflation was flat in May, as fresh food inflation cooled but rice inflation soared.
- The new rice-reserve-release plan looks good though, and should lower inflation in the coming months.
- The BoJ is likely to stay put, amid sluggish growth and with little chance of a big upside trade surprise in H2
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.50% in May; board members’ decision was unanimous.
- Weaker growth and lingering uncertainty over trade were likely the factors driving this month’s cut.
- The stronger KRW gave the BoK a window to ease, and a July Fed cut would allow another 25bp cut this year.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s residential sales have cooled gradually since the late-September round of policy support.
- May’s cuts to lending rates should pep up sales, but it won’t be the last round of support.
- Broad inventory likely still has two years to bottom out, though the recovery should begin earlier.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s April industrial profits ticked up a notch, helped by the consumer goods and equipment policies.
- But auto profits are still falling, despite rising sales, owing to fierce competition and excess supply.
- The tariff-war impact is likely to be felt in the coming months, hitting the profits of export sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
- The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
- Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
- Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
- The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: China's PMI data offers little cause for celebration
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s April retail sales, investment and industrial production point to flagging growth.
- Policymakers saw this coming, hence the PBoC’s May 7 announcement of interest rate and RRR cuts.
- The slowdown stems more from existing issues, with the direct impact of the tariff war still emerging.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China to stick to targeted easing, despite broad cooling in April activity growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s GDP shrank more than the market expected in Q1, and for the first time in a year.
- Weak services exports were to blame; consumption was hit by fragile confidence and high inflation.
- The BoJ will hold rate s for the time being, as it mulls the outcome of talks and assesses its effects.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s broad credit growth rose in April, driven primarily by faster issuance of government bonds.
- The widening M2-M1 gap signifies persistent deflation pressure and subdued economic activity.
- Uncertainty over the outcome of talks will weigh on the economy, despite the recent US-China trade truce.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
- Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
- The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
