Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, June

In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, July

In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, June

In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in June on currency and bond revaluation gains.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, May

In one line : Japanese wage growth is not as weak as it looks, the wage slump was mostly about bonuses.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Services PMI, China, June

In one line: China’s services momentum cools amid property drag and post-holiday blues; Caixin composite PMI signals softer Q2 GDP.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

16 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation

  • .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
  • …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
  • Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 July 2025: China's real GDP steady, with steeper deflation

China's steadyish Q2 real GDP growth boosted by intensifying deflation; nominal growth lowest since Q4 2022

Duncan WrigleyChina+

15 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's 'glass half-full' money and credit data

  • China’s broad credit growth rose in June, but mainly thanks to government-bond issuance. 
  • The rise in corporate borrowing is distorted by the local-government debt swap; it’s likely still sluggish. 
  • M1 jump is hopeful but may prove a blip given the lack of supporting data elsewhere pointing to an upturn. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves rise due to valuation effects and exports

  • Valuation effects explain 60% of China’s foreign exchange reserves rise in June.
  • A rush to ship exports ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline likely contributed to the rise in reserves.
  • Beijing’s moderate 2030 consumption growth target offers clues about China’s growth strategy.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 July 2025 China+ Monitor The BoK paused easing cycle in July due to financial stability worries

  • The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged in July, citing concerns over trade policy and Seoul’s housing market.
  • The MPB was torn, focusing its decision on trade- induced growth worries versus financial stability risk.
  • We expect the Bank to resume rate-cutting once apartment prices show signs of easing in Seoul.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 July 2025: China's producer deflation worsens

China's worsening producer deflation mainly due to bad weather
Low core consumer inflation reflects weak demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's producer deflation steepens as supply-side policy is planned

  • China’s producer deflation is entrenched, but the worsening in June was due to temporary factors.
  • Auto prices rose, after firms pledged faster supplier payments; other sectors are making supply policies.
  • Weak core consumer inflation is indicative of poor demand; all eyes on the end-month Politburo meeting.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's wages hit by plunging bonuses, as trade war bites

  • Japan’s wages took a big knock from a bonus plunge in May, as exporters’ profits were hurt by the tariff war.
  • The headline large-manufacturer Tankan was oddly steady in Q2, despite the tariff war.
  • Consumption still looks soft, despite one-off factors boosting May’s household spending data.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

7 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's coming supply-side policy shift could help soften deflation

  • Chinese policymakers are seemingly rethinking policy to rein in unbridled competition, after prior false starts.
  • The key is political will—and a plan—to overcome vested interests, both local governments’ and firms’.
  • Getting it right should lead to firmer pricing, stronger profits and less wasted capital investment.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 July 2025 China+ Monitor Hong Kong dollar peg here to stay, despite talk of its demise

  • The HKMA intervened again on Wednesday to defend the currency peg, which has been in place since 1983.
  • The LERS is a double-edged sword: Hong Kong loses monetary policy freedom but gains stability.
  • Any talk of re-pegging the HKD is premature; China and HKSAR are not yet an Optimal Currency Area.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 July 2025: China's Caixin manufacturing PMI also rises

China's Caixin PMI, Korea's PMI and Japan's Tankan point to manufacturers' measured relief at easing trade tensions

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 July 2025 China+ Monitor Both China's manufacturing PMI rises led by output; deflation lingers

  • The Caixin PMI rebounded more strongly than the official manufacturing index in June…
  • …Deflation pressures are festering, however, likely forcing regulatory curbs on excessive competition.
  • Korea’s manufacturing PMI is starting to rise from its sickbed, now the election has reduced political risk.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 July 2025 China+ Monitor PBoC signals less urgency for policy support as PMIs improve

  • The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
  • The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
  • The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 June 2025: China's official manufacturing PMI rises

China's Official PMIs point to improving manufacturing and construction activity, but weak jobs market

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 June 2025: Tokyo inflation cools thanks to energy subsidies

Tokyo inflation cools thanks to energy subsidies restart
China's industrial profits hit by slower investment income and weak demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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