China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Efficiency gains help profits but hurt labour demand
- The Xi–Trump meeting in Korea marked a watershed shift in negotiating power between the US and China.
- The RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased, similar to the NBS, on weak demand both at home and abroad.
- China is betting on powering growth by both expanding consumption and maintaining its export prowess.
Investment stimulus should lift China's manufacturing index from October's trough
Tokyo inflation bump driven by local water subsidy expiry
In one line: BoJ stands pat amid trade uncertainty and wage caution as Takaichi takes helm
In one line: Bank of Korea hold rates in October as Seoul housing surges
- China is countering its investment slump by approving an additional RMB500B in local-government bonds...
- ...And driving though the disbursal of RMB500B in policy-bank funds for investment projects.
- This should boost the official manufacturing index from its October trough.
- - CHINA DOUBLING DOWN ON MANUFACTURING-LED MODEL
- - JAPAN’S NEW PRIME MINISTER LIKELY TO MODERATE POLICY
- - BOK SHOULD LEAN TOWARDS EASING IN NOVEMBER
- President Trump met PM Takaichi in Tokyo, marking the start of a new 'golden age' for US-Japan relations.
- The BoJ held rates in October, citing the ongoing trade uncertainty and need to monitor wage trends.
- A next hike in Q1 seems more probable now, as rhetoric teeing up a December move was lacking.
- President Xi’s commentary on Tuesday confirms an industry-first view of growth...
- ...with the domestic economy serving mainly as a hedge against external uncertainties.
- China will stick to manufacturing-led growth, with only modest support for domestic demand and property.
- China and the US held talks to settle a trade agreement framework before Presidents Xi and Trump meet.
- China’s industrial profits recovery broadened in September, partly due to base effects…
- …Equipment manufacturing drove profit gains; we remain cautiously optimistic on anti-involution policies.
- Japan’s headline inflation ticked up in September, owing to higher energy inflation.
- The new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, said on Friday that addressing inflation was her top priority.
- The October flash PMIs point to a broad weakening in activity, both manufacturing and services.
In one line: BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing
- The BoK held the policy rate yesterday, while signalling its readiness for a rate cut next month...
- ...But only if the KRW stabilises, in turn resting on US-Korea talks, and if the Seoul property market cools.
- China’s Fourth Plenum signalled continued reliance on the manufacturing-export growth model.
- Japan’s new PM Takaichi will put together a stimulus package to alleviate households’ cost-of-living crisis.
- September exports trended higher on improving intra-regional demand, driven by chip and car shipments.
- The BoJ will likely delay its rate hike to December now that Ms. Takaichi has been appointed as the new PM.
- China’s quarterly GDP grew a touch faster in Q3, but the headline masks weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence holds between stronger exports and production, and weaker retail sales and investment.
- China’s Q4 growth hinges on successfully reining in deflation and unclogging local financing bottlenecks.
- China’s next Five-Year Plan will focus on long-term strategies in high-tech, energy, and national security…
- …As well as adherence to dual circulation, and maybe an industrial plan to succeed ‘Made in China 2025’.
- China’s consumers and producers are still mired in deflation despite recent improvements.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
- The re-escalation of trade frictions highlights the lack
of trust between the US and China; more talks needed.
- September’s export rebound was partly due to base
effects, which mask weaker monthly momentum.
- The volatile nature of US-China trade relations still
poses a downside risk to China’s near-term growth.
- China’s industrial development model has sustained growth and resulted in world-class sectors like EVs.
- Policymaker s will aim to curb the undesired side effects of excess capacity while keeping its essence.
- They will aim to spur demand, but not at the price of limiting industrial and technological-led growth.
In one line: China’s FX reserves edge higher, supported by portfolio inflows and persistently strong trade surplus.
