China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s April profit growth masks uneven recovery beneath; Trade uncertainty clouds outlook
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea's exports set back less severe than expected, as tariff reprieve offers breathing space
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
- May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
- Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.50% in May; board members’ decision was unanimous.
- Weaker growth and lingering uncertainty over trade were likely the factors driving this month’s cut.
- The stronger KRW gave the BoK a window to ease, and a July Fed cut would allow another 25bp cut this year.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
- Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
- The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s GDP shrank more than the market expected in Q1, and for the first time in a year.
- Weak services exports were to blame; consumption was hit by fragile confidence and high inflation.
- The BoJ will hold rate s for the time being, as it mulls the outcome of talks and assesses its effects.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s broad credit growth rose in April, driven primarily by faster issuance of government bonds.
- The widening M2-M1 gap signifies persistent deflation pressure and subdued economic activity.
- Uncertainty over the outcome of talks will weigh on the economy, despite the recent US-China trade truce.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
- Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
- The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China reportedly plans to improve its housing model by banning pre-sale housing.
- The move would allow the authorities to control the supply of housing better, stabilising prices.
- China’s foreign reserves rose on the back of a bigger revaluation effect, thanks to the weaker USD in April.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Behind-the-scenes diplomacy has set the stage for Sino-US trade dialogue.
- We expect the bilateral relationship to thaw as internal pressure forces both to the negotiating table.
- Korea fast-tracks US trade talks as tariffs weaken exports and drive industrial activity to a 31-month low.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Industrial profitability improved further in Q1, on the back of strong manufacturing production.
- China’s industrial output was bolstered by stimulus demand and tariff front-loading activity.
- External uncertainty does not bode well for producers’ profit outlook, as overcapacity issues are worsening.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA DIGS IN AGAINST US TARIFF BARRAGE
- - JAPAN FACES STAGFLATION RISK; BOJ TO STAND PAT IN 2025
- - BOK LIKELY TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- President Xi concluded his tour of South-East Asian countries to push economic co-operation.
- China is leveraging on its large market in the face of worries over second-order retaliatory measures.
- China has appointed trade veteran Li as its new chief negotiator, signalling a readiness to talk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s export growth bounced back in March, due to a pick-up in activity after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The increase in shipments was particularly strong to traditional markets, the G7 and the EU.
- President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on electronic goods gives Chinese exports a breather.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China is unlikely to back down openly because of Mr. Xi’s personality and the country’s historical context.
- The State Council published a white paper outlining the official stance on Sino-US trade frictions.
- China will need to worry about second-order retaliation from the US via Vietnam and Mexico.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China appears to be prioritising RMB stability over rate cuts, after decent activity data at the start of the year.
- Industrial profits saw tangible improvements in the first two months, led by rising manufacturing demand.
- The stimulus-led profit growth recovery in China will face significant headwinds from rising trade tensions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
