Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)

China+ Datanote: 20 Day Exports, Korea, August

In one line: Korea’s 20-day export growth fueled by lumpy ship exports and renewed EU demand.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's manufacturing sector still soft, as fiscal stimulus is diluted

  •  China’s August manufacturing PMIs remained at a low ebb, with a modest uptick in the Caixin gauge.
  • Weakening export orders suggest China cannot count on external demand to hit its growth target.
  • Falling special-bond funds for new project investment is dragging on infrastructure investment.
     

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

29 August 2024 China+ Monitor Potential rate cut delay looms as BoK assesses financial stability risk

  • An October cut is our base case, with a month’s delay if the BoK needs more time to monitor financial risks.
  • Korea’s 20-day export data indicate solid external demand for full-month August, due to the chip cycle.
  • Renewed EU demand more than offset slowing ASEAN exports; China is the biggest downside risk.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

August 2024 - China+ Chartbook

  • - CHINA’S WEAK DOMESTIC DEMAND JUSTIFIES MORE STIMULUS
  • - JAPAN’S Q2 GDP EVIDENCES A WAGE-PRICE SPIRAL
  • - BOK TO CUT IN OCT AS BASE CASE; NOV CUT A POSSIBILITY

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

27 August 2024 China+ Monitor China's consumption struggles amid low confidence and policy challenges

  • China's July retail sales bounce is misleading; it is simply a recovery from June's unexpected fall.
  • Consumption has been beset by socioeconomic factors: jobs, income, policies, social norms.
  • Demand-side policies will remain targeted; Western- style handouts to consumers are unlikely.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

23 August 2024 China+ Monitor BoK keeps policy rate unchanged in August on financial stability worries

  • The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
  • Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
  • We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

21 August 2024 China+ Monitor China's banks maintain LPR as net interest margins hit record low

  • China’s commercial banks left loan prime rates unchanged in August as their NIM hit a record low.
  • The PBoC is in no rush to lower policy rates; fiscal policy is bearing the burden of driving the recovery.
  • Q2 inward direct investment was negative again; 2024 is set for the largest net outflows since the 2000s.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: LPR, China, August

In one line: China’s loan prime rates unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 August 2024

China’s LPRs unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 August 2024

Slowing industrial production highlights China’s slumping property sector and rising trade frictions 

China’s retail sales rebound in July, but weak consumer confidence and property woes weigh on growth

Fixed investment falters amid infrastructure slowdown and weak private investment  

China’s property sales activity and price growth remain weak

PBoC shifts to new monetary framework: MLF operations to be carried out on 25th of every month

Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: GDP, Japan, Q2

In one line: Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, July

In one line: China’s TSF data suggest weak demand for loans in the real economy

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

19 August 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's Q2 GDP rebound signals strengthening wage-price spiral

  • Japan’s Q2 GDP surprised to the upside; economic recovery is on a firmer footing than expected.
  • Consumption ended four consecutive quarterly falls in Q2 on the back of first real wage gains since 2022.
  • The BoJ is delighted to see more evidence of wage-price spiral; it provided the basis for July’s hike.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

16 August 2024 China+ Monitor China's July activity data point to softer economic momentum

  • July activity data was unspectacular, with slowing growth in FAI and production and weak retail sales.
  • China's fixed investment growth fell unexpectedly, with infrastructure investment the main drag.
  • FAI growth would have been weaker without the contribution from equipment replacement plan.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

14 August 2024 China+ Monitor China's TSF data point to weak credit demand in the real economy

  • China's total social financing growth ticked up in July, but credit demand remained very weak.
  • Net new loans fell for first time in 19 years, with notable weakness in household and business lending.
  • The PBoC are trying hard to raise long-term bond yields, but we will wait to see if that can be sustained.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, July

In one line: China's July exports disappoint market expectations

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, July

In one line: China’s foreign reserves rise on positive currency and asset valuation effects

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 August 2024

In one line: China's July export growth falls short of expectations amid slowing momentum

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Full-Month Exports, Korea, July

Korea’s export rebound disappoints markets, likely due to deeper-than-expected fall in car shipments to the US

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, Korea, July

Korea’s manufacturing activity continues to grow in July, but at a slower pace

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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