China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- China’s successful diversification kept its exports afloat in 2025, with the amount exported reaching USD3.77T.
- The record trade surplus masks exceptionally weak imports, which reflect feeble domestic demand.
- China’s export strategy will face rising challenges in 2026 as non-US trade protectionism escalates.
- China’s PPI improved on the back of a better supply-demand balance and rising non-ferrous metal prices.
- December’s CPI pick-up was due to transient factors such as food, offset by falling energy prices.
- Sustained reflation momentum will be difficult to maintain as economic fundamentals remain weak.
In one line: China’s FX reserves rise on currency valuation gains as dollar weakens in December
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMIs edges back into expansion, but sustainability remains in question
In one line: China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rebound, but momentum looks fragile
In one line: BoJ won't be fazed by slowing headline wage growth, as regular pay growth is relatively steady
- China’s $11.5B rise in foreign reserves in December was down entirely to currency-valuation effects.
- The large trade surplus has been resilient, despite tariff frictions, due to exports expanding into new markets.
- Our estimated residual net capital outflow probably points to retained export earnings held offshore.
- The December RatingDog services PMI points to slowing demand but a marked revival in sentiment.
- Firms are reluctant to hire though, and services inflation pressure is muted.
- China has provided more funds for consumer subsidies, though less than this time last year.
In one line: Sentiment rose, despite slowing demand
- China’s manufacturing PMIs ended the year on a positive note, but thanks to short-term effects.
- The construction PMI rose to its highest since March, but due to mild winter weather rather than stimulus.
- Policymakers will monitor the quasi-fiscal investment stimulus, while making only minor policy tweaks.
- China’s residential sales are still slumping in December, with weakness across all city tiers.
- Tier-one city pre-owned housing prices sank, amid reports of a surge in listings of low- to mid-end units.
- Policymakers seem resigned to a protracted recovery, with no new ideas at the CEWC.
China's LPRs unchanged for seventh straight month amid lower trade risks
In one line: treading sideways
- - CHINA SIGNALS 'STEADY AS SHE GOES' POLICY APPROACH
- - JAPAN'S STEADY WAGE-HIKE OUTLOOK SHOULD NUDGE BOJ
- - BOK HOPING FOR RESPITE IN KRW PRESSURE
- The BoJ raised the policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% on Friday, surprising no one after earlier signalling.
- Governor Ueda struck a neutral tone when addressing the prospect of further rate hikes.
- Sluggish non-unionised wage rises and fragile growth will likely limit the BoJ to only one rate hike in 2026.
In one line: Reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
Japan's flash PMIs find reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
China's November activity data show goods consumption softening and fixed asset investment worsening
