CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 March 2024: Flash PMIs points to improved activity

Japan's robust services sector contrasts with drab manufacturing activity; Exports still strong, despite headline dip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

22 March 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's sunny service sector clouded by insipid manufacturing activity

• Japan’s March flash manufacturing PMI points to still-tepid activity, though improving modestly.
• The service sector continues to shine brightly, albeit based narrowly on tourism and finance.
• A jump in service-sector input costs is a worrying sign of persistently elevated inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoJ decisions, Japan, March

In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 March 2024

In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

20 March 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ marches towards normalisation, scrapping negative rates and YCC

• The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, while ending YCC and risky asset purchases.
• At the press conference, Governor Ueda’s rhetoric on the future path of the policy rate was neutral.
• Japan’s monetary policy should stay accommodative unless significant inflationary pressures mount.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 March 2024: industry powers on, as retail sales slow

China activity - industrial sector powers ahead, despite persistent property drag and retail sales losing steam

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's China's industrial sector strength contrasting with tepid consumption

• China’s lopsided recovery continued in January and February, led by a galloping industrial sector...
• ...Demand is likely mainly coming from exports and fixed asset investment, with consumption still tepid.
• Further price cuts should drive car sales, while new-property developer woes continue.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: MLF rate, China, March

PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 March 2024

PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022

China’s property market rout continues, with prices falling further in February

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, February

Fiscal stimulus likely to drive credit demand after the holiday period

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come

• China’s February credit data indicate still-flat borrowing demand, after filtering the holiday noise.
• Credit growth is likely to pick up as government-bond issuance rises to fund fiscal support.
• The equipment-upgrade and ‘cash-for-clunkers’ measures should also spur loan demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods

China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods trade-ins to prop up demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 March 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ likely to hold off normalising rates until April

• BoJ Governor Ueda gave mixed signals at his legislature appearance on Tuesday.
• Japan’s January household spending data were broadly weak, but the incoming wage data are key...
• ...The BoJ is likely to keep rates on hold next week, waiting for more data, leaving the rate hike until April.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 March 2024

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February; Upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, February

In one line: China’s upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, February

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February, thanks to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, February

In one line:  Investors return to China’s stock markets in February

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

12 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's CPI bounces; upstream industries still see deflationary pressure

• China’s CPI rebounded due to the timing of Lunar New Year and stronger demand in food and services.
• By contrast, PPI slid further as deflationary pressure on upstream industries persists.
• We expect headline CPI disinflation to resume, and China continues to export deflation to rest of world.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's ramps up fiscal support, notably for industrial development

• The Two Sessions confirm China will mainly rely on fiscal policy to support growth this year.
• We estimate the impact of additional fiscal support at 1.5% of GDP, partly offsetting the property drag.
• Regions are rolling out “ future industry” plans, anticipating the next generation of high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, January-February

In one line: China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb; the jump in the year-to-date headline was due partly to base effects.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+