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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Duncan Wrigley

2 October 2024 China+ Monitor Korean export growth in good shape, as BoK faces tricky decision

  • Korean working-day-adjusted export growth remained robust in September, slowing only a little.
  • Semiconductor shipments drove over 60% of the headline export growth.
  • The BoK is likely to cut the policy rate this month, despite worries over rising household-debt risks.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

30 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's policy shift puts growth target in reach; bold reforms lacking

  • Thursday’s Politburo meeting confirmed the policy shift to growth support away from debt control.
  • Government investment should pick up now local officials have clearer policy directives.
  • But policymakers’ more supportive stance for property isn’t matched by new policy ideas.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Politburo, China, September

Politburo confirms top-level priority on achieving growth target, but only hints at further fiscal support

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: MLF Rate, China, September

MLF rate cut in line with expectations after the PBoC's monetary easing plan yesterday

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 25 September 2024: MLF rate cut as expected

MLF rate cut in line with expectations after the PBoC's monetary easing plan yesterday

Duncan WrigleyChina+

26 September 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's flash PMIs indicate diverging sector performances

  • Japan’s sluggish September flash manufacturing PMI remained below 50 for a third straight month.
  • The September flash services activity index, by contrast, remains strong.
  • The rise in the services output price index suggests continued services inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 September 2024: PBoC launches broad support package

PBoC's policy support should stoke short-term market sentiment and growth, but won't solve China's structural woes 
Japan's flash PMIs show mixed performance

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's monetary policy easing only a short-term sugar rush

  •  PBoC Governor Pan yesterday announced a set of broad monetary policy support measures.
  • These are likely to give a short-term lift to markets, and growth, especially if fiscal policy is stepped up.
  • But they don’t address the underlying structural issues, meaning growth is likely to slow again.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: PBoC Policy Decision, China, September

14 day reverse repo rate cut isn't additional stimulus, but completion of July's rate cuts

Duncan WrigleyChina+

23 September 2024 China+ Monitor Governor Ueda downplays inflation risks, so an October hike's unlikely

  • The BoJ stood pat last week , placing greater emphasis on the price impact of currency moves.
  • Governor Ueda’s dovish tone on Friday suggests an October rate hike is off the table.
  • Mr. Ueda recognises that inflation risks have receded, despite the rise in August national inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: LPRs, China, September

PBoC official hints that RRR cut will be the next move

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, September

 BoJ holds fast, offering rosier view on consumption activity

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, August

Consumer inflation rises on the back of food inflation, notably rice shortages

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 September 2024: BoJ holds steady

BoJ holds steady as Japan's national inflation rises modestly
China's LPRs unchanged

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's residential market wallowing in the mire, as policy boost wanes

  • China’s August developer-funding figures improved only because of policy support, namely loans.
  • Home sales remained weak in August, as the impact of the May policy support is fading.
  • A long, grinding recovery is in prospect, with no sign of a change in approach from drip-fed support.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's steady headline credit growth masks sinking private credit demand

  • China’s August headline credit growth was pretty steady, but due only to government-bond issuance...
  • ...Private credit demand looks weak, and on-balance-sheet bill financing was suspiciously large.
  • The PBoC is preparing “incremental policy” measures, likely an RRR cut and structural tools.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 September 2024 China+ Monitor Deep structural adjustment weighing down China's domestic demand

  • China’s retail sales growth faded in August, as people held back on big-ticket purchases.
  • Bad weather delayed construction, despite a large funding boost from government-bond issuance.
  • Policymakers are unlikely to hit the policy panic button, even if it risks missing 2024’s growth target.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 September 2024: Activity losing steam

Domestic demand fades in August, with fiscal policy slow to gain traction

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, August

Government bond surge props up broad credit growth

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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