China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC's surprise MLF rate cut rams home China's re-orientation towards short-term growth support; fiscal policy tweaks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday made an unscheduled 20bp MLF rate cut, following earlier policy rate cuts.
- Policymakers are clearly worried about the H2 outlook, after Q2 GDP growth halved versus Q1.
- Policymakers are likely to stress fiscal support to stabilise growth, but no mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan’s manufacturing sector is buffeted by auto safety inspections scandal
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's flash manufacturing PMI hit by auto safety scandal
Services sector boost from income tax break likely to prove short-lived
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s July flash manufacturing index sank to the lowest in four months, hit by the auto safety scandal.
- Higher import prices, because of the weak JPY, are driving up business costs.
- The service sector returned to growth, enjoying a likely brief spending boost from a one-off tax rebate.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S Q2 SLOWING JUSTIFIES MORE TARGETED STIMULUS
- - JAPAN’S FALTERING GROWTH GIVING BOJ A HEADACHE
- - BOK UNLIKELY TO MOVE EARLY, GIVEN CHIP EXPORT BOOM
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday took markets by surprise with a 10bp policy rate cut to support the economy.
- Policymakers are prioritising growth support after the disappointing Q2 GDP outturn.
- President Xi’s comments confirm the ‘advanced manufacturing first’ reform strategy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The summary document from China’s Third Plenum hints at further short-term growth support.
- The reform strategy prioritizes manufacturing and high-tech development.
- But bold reforms to fill the demand hole left by the tanking property sector seem unlikely.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese headline exports continue to rise, despite auto shipment disruptions
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s residential sales are staging a modest and narrowly based revival, thanks to policy easing.
- But prices are still mostly falling, and the recovery is fragile given high housing inventories.
- A drawn-out and bumpy rebound is still the most likely scenario, gradually limiting the drag on growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s soft June credit data indicated weak demand for funding, except government bonds.
- Higher net long-term household loans probably reflect a revival in pre-owned property sales.
- Money growth continued to be buffeted by fund flows from corporate bank deposits into bond funds.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q2 sequential GDP growth was the lowest in two years, hit by fading domestic demand.
- Industrial output growth has been relatively steady, supported by export demand.
- A fiscal policy support top-up is increasingly likely, with monetary easing playing second fiddle.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese GDP misses expectations, hit by dull retail sales, despite resilient industrial output
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Money growth is buffeted by corporate deposit outflows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s exports continued to recover in June, while imports fell, leading to a record trade surplus.
- Shipments to ASEAN were strong, and to the US also picked up; falling imports signal weak demand.
- Near-term exports will be helped by a favorable base; EV export uncertainty due to tariffs will linger.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoK keeps the policy rate on hold, likely to make first cut in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoK keeps the policy rate on hold, likely to make first cut in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK held fast on the policy rate yesterday but shifted the focus to rate cuts.
- Disinflation should continue in H2, despite the risks from higher import costs and the weak KRW.
- Chip exports will likely drive GDP growth enough for the BoK to delay its first rate cut until October.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
