Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Duncan Wrigley

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 May 2024: Japan's consumer inflation still cooling

Japan’s consumer inflation still cooling, as the BoJ monitors wage inflation and the impact of the weak JPY

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 May 2024: Japan's exports maintain steady growth

Japan's exports maintain steady growth, led by cars and chips

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's new property measures a good first step, but not enough

  • Policymakers on Friday announced a raft of property support measures aimed at tackling oversupply...
  • ...But the funding allocated to buy up unsold housing inventory is just the start, and more will be needed.
  • In April, second-hand housing prices plunged at their steepest rate since September 2014.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17 May 2024; China activity - retail sales slow

China activity - retail sales slow as industrial output rebounds; likely major property policy announcement due today

Duncan WrigleyChina+

20 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's activity data mixed, ahead of incoming support policies

  • China’s April retail sales were hit by falling auto sales; the trade -in incentives should provide support.
  • Industrial output regained its vim in April, led by high-tech manufacturing.
  • Renewed government-bond issuance should restore infrastructure investment growth, after the April dip.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: MLF Rate, China, May

The PBoC leaves the MLF rate unchanged, despite the April credit data dip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 May 2024; MLF rate on hold again

The PBoC leaves the MLF rate unchanged, despite the April credit data dip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 May 2024 China+ Monitor Bond issuance to start on Friday, in wake of miserable April credit data

  • China’s Ministry of Finance yesterday announced ultra-long special-bond issuance will start on Friday.
  • April’s credit data hit a wall, due to government-bond and bankers’ acceptances repayments .
  • Rising government-bond issuance should lift bond yields and credit growth from May onwards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, April

China's big money and credit misses reflect fund diversion and slow government bond issuance, rather than shifts in underlying credit demand  

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 May 2024 China+ Monitor April data likely to show tentative improvement in China's recovery

  • China’s industrial output likely picked up steam in April, thanks to a modest export rise.
  • Falling auto sales probably hit overall retail sales growth, with buyers waiting for further price cuts.
  • Government bond issuance should be stepped up from May, heeding clear top-down policy direction.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 May 2024: China's exports see only modest improvement

Only modest improvement in China's headline exports; imports rise in anticipation of stimulus impact; Japanese broad wages yet to turn around

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's exports recoup lost ground in April, thanks to base effects

  • China export growth bounced in April, thanks partly to receding high base from last year.
  • Adjusted for seasonal factors, monthly exports actually steepened its fall, pointing to still fragile recovery.
  • While exports share to US decreased over the years, those to Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 May 2024 China+ Monitor PSL funding removal likely heralding policy-bank bond issuance

  • April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
  • The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
  • The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 May 2024: Korean PMI points to cost pressures

Korean manufacturers are highly bullish, despite mounting cost pressures

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 May 2024 China+ Monitor Glass-half-full Korean PMI: higher output but also higher costs

  • Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
  • But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
  • The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMIs, China, April

Manufacturing output in rude health, though the PMIs provide contrasting readings for new orders

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 April 2024: Manufacturing PMIs point to robust output

China's PMIs indicate manufacturing output surge, despite mixed demand readings; services activity suffers post-holiday dip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's output rebound continues; Politburo tone more confident

  • Both China’s April PMIs agree that manufacturing output is going from strength to strength...
  • ...But the official gauge shows demand fading slightly, while the Caixin indicates further robustness.
  • It was announced at yesterday’s Politburo meeting the reform-oriented Third Plenum will be held in July.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, April

Tokyo inflation slows due to implementation of free high school education and cooling food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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