16 September 2025 China+ Monitor China's ailing domestic demand likely to prompt targeted support

• China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
• Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
• Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, August

In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 September 2025: China's August broad activity cooling

In one line: China's August broad activity cooling likely to prompt additional targeted support

15 September 2025 China+ Monitor China's dull credit growth points to still sluggish investment

• China’s broad credit growth slowed slightly in August, with seemingly dull private sector credit demand.
• Rising M1 growth is a probably a sign of funds returning from the bond market.
• No smoking gun yet in terms of fund leakage into the stock market via unofficial channels.

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, August

In one line: Valuation effects lift China’s FX reserves in August; expect them to drive reserves higher in H2

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, August

In one line: China exports slow on low-tech weakness; US, Africa and LatAM slump offsets ASEAN strength

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, July

In one line: Japan's real wage turned positive for the first time in seven months, paving the way for an October BoJ hike.

China+ Datanote: Flash Services PMI, Japan, August

In one line: Japan’s private sector activity posts its fastest rise since February, with broad based services and manufacturing improvements.

China+ Datanote: Flash Mfg PMI, Japan, August

In one line: Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI nears 50, boosted largely by domestic demand.

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, July

In one line: Japan’s export show strain from tariffs, with cars and steel leading declines.

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, August

In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports rebound in August, monthly momentum firms despite fading US front-loading.

China+ Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q2

In one line: Japan Q2 GDP: Net trade and business investment lift growth; likely to bolster BoJ’s determination to hike.

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, July

In one line: China’s producer prices continue to fall amid involution and weak demand

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, July

In one line: China’s CPI stays flat in July as disinflation pressure lingers on weak demand 

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 September 2025: China's producer deflation improvement

In one line: China's producer deflation improvement mainly driven by short-term factors; consumer price fall is due to food prices, with core inflation rising

11 September 2025 China+ Monitor China's producer prices supported by short-term factors

• China's August producer deflation improved, led by steel and coal, likely due to reviving building demand.
• Anti-price-war policies are likely to have more effect in traditional sectors than in high-tech ones.
• Core consumer inflation is weak but gradually rising, indicative of the slow repair in domestic demand.

9 September 2025 China+ Monitor China's exports lose steam on low- techs; slump in US exports persists

• China exports slowed for third successive month in August, dragged down by low-tech shipments.
• US was largest drag on growth; monthly exports fell 12.8% seasonally adjusted, offsetting ASEAN's gains.
• Export growth is set to slow in H2 on the back of a weaker US economy and less stockpiling.

8 September 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's car-tariff deal sealed; wage growth paves way for October hike

• A US executive order finally formalises its trade deal with Japan, ending uncertainty for Japan’s economy.
• Real wages have risen for the first time since December, boosting October rate-hike bets.
• The BoJ is likely to look past weaker ‘same-sample’ data, with trade worries fading.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 September 2025: RatingDog services PMI points to job risks

In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI points to job risks after court ruling on social security contributions

4 September 2025 China+ Monitor Will China prevent a slow-motion labour-market trainwreck?

• The August RatingDog services PMI flashed a warning signal about job losses, despite strong activity.
• A court ruling on mandatory social security payments is the likely culprit, leading firms to trim workers.
• Local governments probably won't fully enforce the rule, but the uncertainty created is hitting jobs already.