In one line: China's LPRs on hold, despite July's weakening demand data
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's LPRs on hold, despite weakening demand data
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC on Monday gave no hint of imminent easing, despite July’s underwhelming activity data.
- China is likely to go slow on further policy support, so it has options if trade talks with the US hit a wall.
- The property market is worsening again, putting developer finances under pressure.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China's weakening investment and retail sales data raise worries for H2 demand outlook
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s July activity data point to a worrying slowdown in domestic demand, notably investment.
- Industrial and services output maintained growth, however, above the 5% target for official GDP growth.
- More targeted stimulus will be needed in the coming months, especially if and when export growth sinks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China’s FX reserves dip on stronger dollar and bond loses in July.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s monthly export momentum fades in July; pharma shipments surged while rare-earth exports rebound.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line : Japan’s nominal wage growth remains sturdy amid trade headwinds, but real wages stay deeply negative.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: NBS non-manufacturing PMI dragged down by construction activity in July.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s industrial profits slid further in June, weighed down by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s exports slip unexpectedly in June, raising risk of a technical recession
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s broad credit growth edged up in July, only thanks to rapid government-bond issuance.
- Credit demand elsewhere appears lacklustre, with net long-term corporate loan repayments.
- Subsidies for consumer and services firm loans are helpful but unlikely to be a game-changer.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer prices are teetering on the brink of deflation, with July’s rate falling back to 0.0%.
- Producer deflation has deepened further. Any progress on anti-involution will take time to appear.
- Trade uncertainty will weigh on factory-gate prices regardless; all eyes are on the 15th five-year plan.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s monthly export momentum slowed for a second straight month as the US reprieve expiry nears.
- Easing of the seasonally adjusted rate likely reflects fading stockpiling and transshipment demand in July.
- Shipments of pharma and rare earth surged after the ‘London consensus’ and ahead of Section 232 tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s FX reserves fell less than the market expected, but still staged the first drop since December.
- The currency-valuation effect was the main downward driver, and the bond-valuation effect to a lesser extent.
- The evolution of China’s FX reserves in H2 hinges critically on the outlook for USD and the Fed.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
