China's official GDP hits 2024 target thanks to Q4 stimulus sugar rush, but domestic demand is still lagging output growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK delivered a ‘dovish hold’ yesterday due to FX-volatility worries, in line with our forecast.
- The MPB recognises the need to shore up the economy but wants to learn more of Trump’s plans.
- The Bank is likely to resume rate cuts in February, as downside risks to domestic growth are rising.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Credit growth propped up by government bond issuance, but sagging long-term corporate loans bode ill for investment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China's 2024 export value surpasses Covid peak, trade surplus hits record high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s producer price deflation eases further, but overcapacity risks remain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s core inflation shows a silver lining; Headline CPI nears deflation on falling food prices.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves fell more than consensus in December, thanks to sizable valuation effect.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s total social financing ticked up in December thanks to greater government-bond issuance.
- Stronger M2 growth reflects the policy lift to asset-market activity and consumer goods sales.
- But the shocking long-term corporate loan figure casts doubt on funding needs for investment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s export growth rebounded in December, led by improvements in ASEAN and US shipments.
- China suffers from overcapacity in some industries, with export volume growing faster than value.
- Will President Trump follow through on his tariff threats on his first day, and how will China respond?
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Governor Ueda is keeping the BoJ's options open, monitoring Mr. Trump's return to power, and wages.
- Japan's November wage growth was steady, but most small firms aren't planning big wage hikes.
- Manufacturers are surprisingly optimistic, despite the darkening risks of trade protectionism.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s CPI inched closer to deflation in December; fresh food and pork prices were the main drags.
- Core inflation improved for the third straight month, highlighting stabilising demand conditions.
- PPI reflation hinges on stimulus-related demand and how China addresses its overcapacity issue.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s currency is under pressure from expectations of more PBoC easing and a less dovish Fed.
- Foreign reserves fell sizeably in December, driven primarily by currency and bond valuation effects.
- Some of China’s policy firepower has been saved, to be deployed depending on future US trade policy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Both of China's December services PMIs point to higher activity, thanks to short-term stimulus.
- But sentiment has plunged since the US election, with firms worried about protectionism.
- More targeted stimulus is coming, including reported public-sector wage hikes.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin services PMI rises at year-end, despite sagging export orders and sentiment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Despite upside surprises on headline numbers, Korean WDA exports weakened in December amid regional demand slowdown and political uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's PMI data offers little cause for celebration
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's industrial profits deteriorate amid insufficient demand and external uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s manufacturing growth stabilises at best; more stimulus needed for broader growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan CPI outturn signals upside risks to prices; BoJ’s summary of opinions highlights diverse December views
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s WDA 20-day exports remain steady ahead of Trump inauguration
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
