CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 March 2026: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"

In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 March 2026: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks

In one line: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks and divided inflation views

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 March 2026: Japan's exports slow due to holiday effects

Japan's exports slow due to holiday calendar effects
Chip and electrical machinery shipments rise

20 March 2026 China+ Monitor BoJ stands pat amid oil-price risks; MPC members split on inflation

• The BoJ held the policy rate yesterday, unsurprisingly given the ever-changing oil-price situation.
• Governor Ueda is keeping options open, amid different views on inflation among voting members.
• Our base case is a July rate hike, assuming oil prices fall in the coming months; but April is not ruled out.

19 March 2026 China+ Monitor China less exposed to the oil-price jolt than Japan

• China faces the likely prospect of a modest bump in consumer inflation from the oil-price surge...
• ...Soft pork prices are likely to partly offset higher energy costs; but producer inflation could swing dramatically.
• Japan would be more vulnerable to an oil price at $150 per barrel, forcing an early BoJ rate hike.

17 March 2026 China+ Monitor China's fundamentals yet to turn a corner; still, better than late 2025

• China’s activity data for the first two months of this year paint a brighter picture than we expected...
• ...But stronger consumption is largely a temporary effect of higher spending during the extended holiday.
• Policy-supported infrastructure investment rebounded earlier than we expected; property sector is still weak.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 March 2026: China's activity data improves in Jan-Feb

China's consumer spending was boosted by longer holiday
infrastructure investment rebounds thanks to policy support
Industrial output lifted by export demand

16 March 2026 China+ Monitor China's domestic demand likely still sluggish in January-to-February

• We expect little improvement in China’s consumption activity in January-to-February in the data out today...
• ...Falling car sales should off set higher holiday spending, while the FAI improvement will be slow.
• Government-bond issuance continues to prop up broad credit growth; corporate credit should edge up.

13 March 2026 China+ Monitor China's robust exports reduce pressure to spur domestic demand

• China’s exports sustained a robust performance in the first two months of 2026...
• ...Meaning policymakers feel little pressure to spur domestic demand in the near term.
• Falling land sales in the first two months point to sustained property investment weakness.

PM Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, February

In one line: Bank of Korea hold rates at 2.50%; Adding Fed-style dot plot to anchor market expectations, signals six months hold

PM Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, February

In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports surge in February on semiconductors, despite fewer working days, as DRAM prices soar in Q1

PM Datanote: Exports, Japan, January

In one line: Japan exports spike on Lunar New Year boost, strong momentum unlikely to last.

10 March 2026 China+ Monitor China's low inflation cushions against energy-price shock

• China’s consumer inflation in January-February, at 0.8%, was in line with the previous two months.
• Low inflation and sluggish domestic demand leave ample room to absorb an energy-price surge. 
• Producer inflation continued to improve in February, thanks to oil and non-ferrous metals prices. 

PM Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q4

In one line: Japan’s softer than expected GDP outturn reinforces our case for a later than market rate hike.

PM Datanote: Current Account, China, Q4 (Preliminary)

In one line: China’s Q4 current account surplus surges on strong goods exports 

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 February 2026: China's PPI reflation remains patchy; CPI falls back on Lunar New Year timing

China's PPI reflation remains patchy; CPI falls back on Lunar New Year timing

PM Datanote: PPI, China, January

In one line: China’s PPI deflation eases further in January, but improvements were patchy.

PM Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, January

In one line: China’s FX reserves jumped in January on factors beyond valuation effects.

PM Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, February

In one line: China’s FX reserves rose further in February amid RMB strength, partly driven by exporters repatriating overseas USD proceeds.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 March 2026: Consumer inflation gets holiday bump

In one line: Consumer inflation gets holiday bump; Producer inflation continued to improve, ahead of oil price surge