China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Hi-tech and energy-related upstream sectors drive Chinese industrial profit growth higher in Q1
In one line: Japan National CPI firms on core goods and fading energy drag; BoJ likely to delay hike next week.
In one line: Japan manufacturing boosted by precautionary front-loading amid supply shocks while services slow
In one line: Japan exports rebound in March on post-LNY China demand; BoJ hike likely delayed to June after media leak
In one line: Korea exports still strong in early April, led by semiconductors.
In one line: China’s LPR steady in April amid NIM pressure
In one line: BoJ on hold, but Governor Ueda's lack of clear policy signalling leaves JPY exposed
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.75% yesterday, amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
- Governor Ueda’s mixed message on policy direction could invite speculation on USDJPY.
- We think a June rate hike is still on the table, as long as prospects for a lasting ceasefire have improved by then.
- China’s industrial profits rose in Q1 on lower costs and higher revenues from precautionary front-loading.
- Producer reflation supported the rise, but was more evident in metals and upstream energy sectors.
- Profit growth will face pressure from war-related costs, fading front-loading and weak domestic demand.
- - CHINA'S Q1 GROWTH SPURT COULD BE HIGH-WATER MARK
- - BOJ WILL LIKELY HOLD POLICY RATE AT APRIL'S MEETING
- - KOREA'S CHIP EXPORT RISE OFFSETS OIL IMPORT BILL
- President Trump’s mid-May Beijing visit faces risk of another delay amid persistent Middle East tensions.
- China’s relative insulation from the war has supported Beijing’s position in discussing trade terms with the US.
- Japan’s manufacturing is boosted by precautionary front-loading amid supply shocks, while services slow.
- China’s LPRs and de-facto policy rate were unchanged in April, amid pressure on banks’ margins.
- Banks started a new round of deposit-rate cuts, given the liquidity glut in the system from weak loan demand.
- The MoF is offering ultra-long special bonds at record levels, taking advantage of the risk-averse mood.
- China is expediting fiscal measures to support investment by the end of H1...
- ...Providing flexibility for additional support in H2 if the Iran war drags on and hurts global growth.
- The residential property market is enjoying a ‘little spring’ with rising sale s, but a real recovery is still far off.
In one line: China's lopsided Q1 GDP growth bump likely the year's high-water mark
- China’s GDP growth rose to 5.0% in Q1, but it was highly dependent on robust exports...
- ...Which are likely to slow as the oil price shock hits global growth.
- Real household spending slowed and underlying consumption activity remains sluggish.
- China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in March, as import strength outpaced exports, hit by payback.
- The import surge was led by high-tech items, with price effects outweighing geopolitical energy dynamics.
- Exports were distorted by LNY effects, but underlying momentum was notably weaker for the Global South.
In one line: Private sector credit showing early but uneven improvement
- China’s March credit data, albeit soft overall, points to a tentative private credit revival in select areas.
- Rising pre-existing home sales likely drove mortgage demand; bottoming out is happening albeit slowly.
- Policy-driven infrastructure investment probably supported improving underlying corporate credit.
- China’s first rise in producer prices in 41 months was partly due to the global energy-price shock...
- ...But it does not indicate an improvement in demand fundamentals nor the exit from low inflation.
- Producer prices for consumer goods continue to fall, while core consumer inflation is subdued.
- China has ramped up energy production from alternative sources in the wake of the Iran war.
- China has seen limited trade spillover; East Asian PMIs show a common theme of higher oil-driven input costs.
- Hong Kong’s PMI plunged on war uncertainty, with price pressures yet to feed through.
