In one line: Korea’s exports rebound on a WDA basis despite slowing headline growth in August.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s services sector rebounds after July’s bad weather, while construction index continues to dive.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's manufacturing sector hit by rapidly weakening demand in August
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Tokyo consumer inflation surprises on the upside, backing BoJ’s decision to hike.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Stagnant profit growth amid China's sluggish demand and ample capacity
China’s MLF rate was unchanged as expected
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s MLF rate was unchanged as expected
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's inflation remains steady in July as energy prices rebound and core-core inflation eases
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's inflation remains steady in July as energy prices rebound and core-core inflation eases
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
BoK holds rate steady on financial stability worries; Japan's flash PMIs indicate better growth momentum in August, especially in services
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in August, thanks to improvement in output and employment
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The Bank of Korea is in no rush to cut rates, likely to start its easing cycle in Q4
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s 20-day export growth fueled by lumpy ship exports and renewed EU demand.
Japan’s July export growth boosted by semiconductors gains and mixed regional demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s July export growth boosted by semiconductors gains and mixed regional demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea’s 20-day export growth fueled by lumpy ship exports and renewed EU demand.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s August manufacturing PMIs remained at a low ebb, with a modest uptick in the Caixin gauge.
- Weakening export orders suggest China cannot count on external demand to hit its growth target.
- Falling special-bond funds for new project investment is dragging on infrastructure investment.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- An October cut is our base case, with a month’s delay if the BoK needs more time to monitor financial risks.
- Korea’s 20-day export data indicate solid external demand for full-month August, due to the chip cycle.
- Renewed EU demand more than offset slowing ASEAN exports; China is the biggest downside risk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA’S WEAK DOMESTIC DEMAND JUSTIFIES MORE STIMULUS
- - JAPAN’S Q2 GDP EVIDENCES A WAGE-PRICE SPIRAL
- - BOK TO CUT IN OCT AS BASE CASE; NOV CUT A POSSIBILITY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China's July retail sales bounce is misleading; it is simply a recovery from June's unexpected fall.
- Consumption has been beset by socioeconomic factors: jobs, income, policies, social norms.
- Demand-side policies will remain targeted; Western- style handouts to consumers are unlikely.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
- Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
- We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s commercial banks left loan prime rates unchanged in August as their NIM hit a record low.
- The PBoC is in no rush to lower policy rates; fiscal policy is bearing the burden of driving the recovery.
- Q2 inward direct investment was negative again; 2024 is set for the largest net outflows since the 2000s.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
