Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)

22 April 2025 China+ Monitor China's strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures

  • President Xi concluded his tour of South-East Asian countries to push economic co-operation.
  • China is leveraging on its large market in the face of worries over second-order retaliatory measures.
  • China has appointed trade veteran Li as its new chief negotiator, signalling a readiness to talk.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

15 April 2025 China+ Monitor China's exports rebound, but tariff cloud still looms over electronics

  • China’s export growth bounced back in March, due to a pick-up in activity after the Lunar New Year holiday.
  • The increase in shipments was particularly strong to traditional markets, the G7 and the EU.
  • President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on electronic goods gives Chinese exports a breather.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 April 2025 China+ Monitor Beyond tit-for-tat tariffs: what Xi's China is really fighting for

  • China is unlikely to back down openly because of Mr. Xi’s personality and the country’s historical context.
  • The State Council published a white paper outlining the official stance on Sino-US trade frictions.
  • China will need to worry about second-order retaliation from the US via Vietnam and Mexico.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

28 March 2025 China+ Monitor PBoC Changes MLF operations to multi-rate, fixed amount bidding

  • China appears to be prioritising RMB stability over rate cuts, after decent activity data at the start of the year.
  • Industrial profits saw tangible improvements in the first two months, led by rising manufacturing demand.
  • The stimulus-led profit growth recovery in China will face significant headwinds from rising trade tensions.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

March 2025 - China+ Chartbook

  • - CHINA CRANKS UP FISCAL SUPPORT; LIKELY MORE TO COME
  • - BOJ SHIFTING TO HAWKISH BIAS AS FOOD INFLATION RISES
  • - KOREA CHIP EXPORTS UNDER COMPETITIVE PRESSURE

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

20 March 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ stands pat in March on external trade policy considerations

  • The BoJ left rates unchanged at yesterday’s meeting, citing the evolving external situation as a new risk.
  • The Bank considers developments in domestic wages and prices are in line with it achieving its policy target.
  • We continue to expect two more hikes in 2025, taking rates to 1%, with the next rise in Q2.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 March 2025 China+ Monitor China's deflation pressure mounts as CPI falls more than expected

  • China’s CPI fell more than the market expected, dragged down by weak food and services inflation.
  • PPI deflation eased slightly; NDRC announced a cut to steel production and measures to curb ‘Nei Juan’.
  • Japan’s full-time regular base pay growth hit a 32-year high, giving the BoJ confidence to normalise rates.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

5 March 2025 China+ Monitor China retaliates with tariffs on US agricultural products

  • China has retaliated to US tariffs with its own tariffs on American agricultural products, and company bans.
  • Korean WDA exports reversed trend and fell in February, due to weaker demand for semiconductors.
  • Korea’s low-end chip production is facing intense competition from China, leading to falling unit prices.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

18 February 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's Q4 GDP surprises to the upside, paving way for BoJ to hike

  • Japan’s Q4 GDP grew by more than the market had expected, driven primarily by stronger net exports.
  • Domestic demand disappointed, though spending on durables was strong; business investment rebounded.
  • US trade policy uncertainty is overshadowing certain industrial sectors, weighing on Japan’s future growth.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

28 January 2025 China+ Monitor Surprise fall in China's PMIs signals recovery is far from assured

  • China’s official PMIs unexpectedly fell in January; manufacturing activity dropped to a five-month low.
  • The services PMI reversed December’s gain and fell back to the period-average prior to that month.
  • Manufacturers and developers are optimistic about the outlook despite local and global headwinds.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

January 2025 - China+ Chartbook

  • - CHINA’S Q4 ACTIVITY BUMP IS LIKELY TO FADE
  • - BOJ IS KEEN TO NORMALISE RATES
  • - BOK IS LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

17 January 2025 China+ Monitor Bank of Korea's hiatus likely to be brief; easing to resume in February

  • The BoK delivered a ‘dovish hold’ yesterday due to FX-volatility worries, in line with our forecast.
  • The MPB recognises the need to shore up the economy but wants to learn more of Trump’s plans.
  • The Bank is likely to resume rate cuts in February, as downside risks to domestic growth are rising.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, December

In one line: China's 2024 export value surpasses Covid peak, trade surplus hits record high

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, December

In one line: China’s producer price deflation eases further, but overcapacity risks remain.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, December

In one line: China’s core inflation shows a silver lining; Headline CPI nears deflation on falling food prices.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, December

In one line: China’s foreign reserves fell more than consensus in December, thanks to sizable valuation effect.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

14 January 2025 China+ Monitor All eyes on China's likely response to President Trump's opening salvo

  • China’s export growth rebounded in December, led by improvements in ASEAN and US shipments.
  • China suffers from overcapacity in some industries, with export volume growing faster than value.
  • Will President Trump follow through on his tariff threats on his first day, and how will China respond?

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

10 Janaury 2025 China+ Monitor China's core CPI signals stabilising activity; food prices drag on headline

  • China’s CPI inched closer to deflation in December; fresh food and pork prices were the main drags.
  • Core inflation improved for the third straight month, highlighting stabilising demand conditions.
  • PPI reflation hinges on stimulus-related demand and how China addresses its overcapacity issue.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 January 2025 China+ Monitor China's PBoC reasserts its determination to keep RMB stable

  • China’s currency is under pressure from expectations of more PBoC easing and a less dovish Fed.
  • Foreign reserves fell sizeably in December, driven primarily by currency and bond valuation effects.
  • Some of China’s policy firepower has been saved, to be deployed depending on future US trade policy.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, December

In one line: Despite upside surprises on headline numbers, Korean WDA exports weakened in December amid regional demand slowdown and political uncertainty 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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