Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, December 2023

In one line: German firms will be happy to say Goodbye to 2023! 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Labour Costs & Trade, Eurozone, Q3/October

In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December 2023

In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December 2023

In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q4 2023

In one line:  A clear dovish shift; rate cuts are next. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, October 2023

In one line: Exaggerated by an Irish drop, but still not good news.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP-Bund Spread at 100bp Sounds Fanciful, but It's Doable

  • The BTP-Bund spread is currently around 175bp, but we think it will fall to 100bp by end-2024...
  • ..In line with the current spread between Spanish government-bond yields and Bund yields...
  • ...Faster QT than we anticipate risks preventing the spread from falling to 100bp.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, October 2023

In one line: Confirming that output fell in each of the big four in October.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, October 2023

In one line: Not enough to convince us that net trade was a boost to GDP in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Italy Still in the Doldrums Despite Upward Revision to Q3 GDP

  • Italian GDP increased in Q3 rather than flat-lined, as the advance release had suggested...
  • ...It is still more likely to fall than rise in Q4, and we are lowering our forecasts for H1 2024.
  • BTPs are rallying, and we look for further gains; we see yields falling to just over 3% by mid 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence