In one line: NBS non-manufacturing PMI dragged down by construction activity in July.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s industrial profits slid further in June, weighed down by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s exports slip unexpectedly in June, raising risk of a technical recession
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in July; most relevant PPI components rose modestly.
- The rise in distributors’ margins in the PPI is implausible, given surging tariff revenues and CPI data.
- We think hopes for a near-term “reshoring boost” to manufacturing look misplaced.
Samuel TombsUS
- Retail sales declined sharply in Brazil, with credit-sensitive segments under the most pressure.
- Services held firm up until June, but PMI data now point to a weakening trend.
- Consumer sentiment is fragile, and high interest rates continue to weigh on household spending.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth beat consensus expectations in June, rising by 0.4% month-to-month.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2 was above the MPC’s latest forecast, 0.1%.
- The expenditure breakdown for GDP in H1 shows household spending growing at a healthy pace.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Sales stumble again as financial headwinds intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The REC improves in July but signals the jobs market remains weak.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressure despite falling employment suggests a cautious MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: We’re comfortable assuming the MPC on hold for the rest of this year after hawkish guidance changes and vote.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Official retail sales will rise at a healthy clip in July.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A stabilising labour market and elevated pay growth constrain the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Down, in line with the fall in the sentix.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We estimate that AI-linked investment lifted GDP growth in H1 2025 by about half a percentage point.
- The aggressive capex plans of the big tech firms suggest a similar boost in the coming quarters.
- July's PPI data likely will show that retailers’ and wholesalers’ margins are being squeezed by tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
