Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

11 June 2024 US Monitor Inflation and Wage Expectations are no barrier to Fed easing

  • The NY Fed survey shows wage growth and long-run inflation expectations are in line with the 2010s. 
  • People plan to spend 5% more over the next year, but expectations correlate poorly with actual spending.
  • Tight credit conditions are weighing heavily on small firms, an ominous sign for the economy at large.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

10 June 2024 US Monitor Core September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls

  • The initial estimate of a brisk 272K rise in May payrolls likely will be revised down, given many weak indicators.
  • The case for firms to hoard staff is weakening as the unemployment rate grinds higher.
  • The unwinding of a calendar quirk drove May’s jump in average hourly earnings; the trend still is slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 June 2024 US Monitor Private payrolls likely rose in May at the slowest pace since October

  • The Homebase data were revised as we expected, so we are sticking with our 180K May payroll forecast.
  • Rising jobless claims and the NFIB’s very weak hiring intentions index signal soft summer payrolls.
  • We look for a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings; a calendar quirk points to slight upside risk.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

A solid headline number, but the labor market is a weak spot.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment Report, May

ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 June 2024 US Monitor Dollar likely to depreciate as the Fed eases faster than other central banks

  • We expect EURUSD to weaken by 8% to 1.18 by year-end, as the Fed eases faster than the ECB.
  • Initial claims likely rose last week; public holidays depress them less now than seasonal adjustment assumes.
  • The ISM services index is an unreliable guide to activity, but a weak employment balance points to trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 June 2024 US Monitor The Q2 GDPNow forecast is still a lot of noise and not much signal

  • The drop in the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow estimate says very little; it's still far more model than tracking.
  • April's JOLTS report brings further signs of labor market normalization. Lower wage growth is likely to follow.
  • ADP's data and the employment index of the ISM services survey are hopeless indicators of payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing recovery fizzling out before it has even begun.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

4 June 2024 US Monitor April quits rate likely still pointing to a further slowdown in wage growth

  • The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
  • Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over. 
  • The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Chicago PMI, May

A headscratcher, but an unreliable signal for the broader economy.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & spending, April

Real incomes, spending and core prices increases are all slowing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

3 June 2024 US Monitor Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts

  • The spike in the core PCE deflator is over, but Fed officials will want to see more data before they relax.
  • Consumers’ spending is on course for another modest 2%-ish increase in the second quarter.
  • Manufacturing is in better shape than implied by the grim Chicago PMI; auto sales headed for Q2 bounce.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US GDP Second Estimate/Advance Goods Trade

GDP details better than the headline, but growth is slowing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

31 May 2024 US Monitor April's core PCE deflator likely rose at the slowest pace since December

  • We expect a 0.23% rise in the core PCE deflator in April, but a rounded 0.3% print would be no great surprise.
  • Real personal consumption probably rose by just 0.1%, given the drop in retail sales in April.
  • Final domestic sales growth was strong in Q1, despite the low GDP headline, but that's about to change.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

30 May 2024 US Monitor Q1 GDP growth is set to be revised down sharply, to just over 1%

  • Q1 GDP growth will be revised down sharply today, thanks mostly to weaker consumption.
  • Final sales still rose at a decent pace, but momentum is fading, and the labor market will reflect the downshift.
  • Jobless claims probably are trending higher; look out for a hefty drop in pending home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, May

A decent bounce, but the headwinds to consumption are mounting.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

29 May 2024 US Monitor State and local government construction has boomed; it's over

  • State and local government investment spending has slowed sharply; soon it will fall outright…
  • ...Both tax revenues and federal government payments to S&L are falling; cashflow is evaporating. 
  • The rebound in consumers' confidence likely will prove unsustainable if job growth weakens as we expect.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, April

Better headline numbers, but the underlying trend is still weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

28 May 2024 US Monitor Fading rate cut hopes and rising layoff fears hit confidence hard in May

  • Methodological changes do not explain all the fall in the Michigan survey measure of consumers' confidence...
  • ...Fewer people expect the Fed to ease soon, while layoff fears have grown; slower spending growth lies ahead.
  • Equipment investment looks set for a weak second quarter, despite better-than-expected May orders.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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