US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
Massive rise in airline fares leaves core PCE deflator set to rise by 0.3%.
Samuel TombsUS
- PPI data combined with our CPI forecast suggest core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.0% in December...
- ...But the PPI report also contained some reassuring signals for the near-term inflation outlook.
- Further improvement in the NFIB in December likely driven by politics rather than by fundamentals.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.5% increase in the December headline CPI, and a fifth straight 0.3% rise in the core.
- Strong holiday demand boosted prices for gasoline, air transportation and accommodation.
- Rent and auto insurance prices likely rebounded after below-trend increases in November.
Samuel TombsUS
- December payroll growth likely will be revised to a slower pace, given the usual skew in late responses.
- The trend is revealed only from data spanning about six months; payroll growth was lower in H2 than H1.
- Homebase data make payroll forecasts less accurate; they are a poor guide even to hospitality payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
Claims are noisy at the turn of the year; forward-looking indicators point to a renewed rise ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Option pricing indicates markets will move sharply today if payrolls deviate much from the consensus...
- ...But payrolls have become noisier as the response rate has declined; trends take six months to emerge.
- Auto sales have been lifted by storms, tariff talk and a dip in auto loan rates; expect sales to falter mid-year.
Samuel TombsUS
Falling quits point to a further slowdown in wage growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Profits are very sensitive to GDP growth, and reliably lead employment growth at turning points.
- Much weaker growth in profits would suggest trouble ahead for the broader economy.
- Seasonals are pushing down claims; they also fell in the first week of prior years with identical calendars.
Samuel TombsUS
- JOLTS job postings are noisy and usually revised down; Indeed’s data are a better guide to the trend.
- Muted overall net hiring, and net job losses among very small firms, suggest Fed policy is still too tight.
- Fade the jump in the ISM services prices index; it is far more volatile than underlying services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a lethargic 150K in December payrolls, with private jobs increasing by just 120K...
- ...NFIB hiring intentions and Indeed job postings—the only survey indicators worth tracking—are weak.
- Mild weather likely lifted December construction payrolls, but the boost won’t last.
Samuel TombsUS
- Manufacturing payrolls have been falling for several months, and construction looks vulnerable too.
- Job losses in these sectors have often signaled trouble for the broader labor market and economy.
- We think the economy is in a more fragile position than markets and the commentariat appreciate.
Samuel TombsUS
- The end of year declines in both initial and continuing claims are due to seasonal adjustment problems.
- The recent pick-up in WARN layoff filings suggests initial claims will rise over the coming months.
- Unemployment likely rose again last month, despite lower claims, driven by rising long-term joblessness.
Samuel TombsUS
The post-election pick-up in sentiment has faded quickly.
Samuel TombsUS
Shipments point to unchanged equipment investment in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
Expect further mild core PCE increases in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- Big increases in purchases of high-value durable goods largely drove November's brisk consumption.
- Real after-tax income growth will slow next year amid modest wage rises and falling savings income.
- Spending growth will lull in mid-2025 even without tariffs, as people are acting now like they are coming.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.13% increase in the November core PCE deflator, easing fears about sticky inflation.
- The unemployment rate probably still rose in December, despite the slight fall in continuing claims.
- The recent upturn in home sales is unlikely to last now that mortgage rates are rising again.
Samuel TombsUS
- Most FOMC members envisage easing by just 50bp in 2025, but rising unemployment will spur more.
- WARN and Challenger data point to a renewed rise in jobless claims and an above-consensus print today.
- A rare rise in the Leading Economic Index in November will grab attention today, but it should be ignored.
Samuel TombsUS
- November's retail sales suggest real consumption is on track to rise by a solid 3% or so in Q4...
- ...But income growth is slowing and favorable wealth effects on spending will fade in 2025.
- Expect a downturn in residential construction, now that the pipeline of new projects is drying up.
Samuel TombsUS
Stagnation will remain the story in 2025.
Samuel TombsUS
