UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- GDP’s 0.2% month-to-month gain in January shows last year’s recession will prove fleeting.
- Stripping out the noise, GDP has been improving since the low point last October.
- We expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Downside wage growth surprise will raise MPC confidence that inflation pressures are fading.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Slowing employment growth shows that the labour market continues to loosen gradually.
- LFS sample problems mean the MPC won’t place much weight on the unemployment rate.
- Softer-than-expected wage growth will give the MPC a little extra confidence in a summer rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to 3.5% in February from 4.0% in January.
- Risks are for a lower reading, as our headline CPI inflation forecast is on the cusp of rounding to 3.4%.
- We expect services inflation to slow to 6.1% in February, from 6.5%, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect household real income to rise 2.2% year-over-year in 2024...
- ...As real wage growth stays strong, and Chancellor Hunt’s tax cuts add 0.8pp.
- A falling saving rate will help too; consumption should rise 0.5% quarter-to-quarter through 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for PAYE employment to rise 30K in February and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.8%.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses...
- ...Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to exceed the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expected interest rate cuts breathe life into house building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Constrained by economic forecasts, the Chancellor mustered tax cuts of only 0.5% of GDP in 2024/25.
- That boosts GDP 0.2%, and inflation less. Duty freezes lower MPC near-term inflation forecasts 0.2pp.
- This won’t shift the economic needle, or the MPC’s thinking, much. We expect the first rate cut in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast, supporting services inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stagnant, but real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rain stopped play, sales will recover.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP rose 0.2% month-to-month in January, as retail sales stormed back from December’s drop.
- That is not a flash in the pan, as the PMI shows firms’ optimism in the growth outlook at a two-year high.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.5% in February, from 4.0% in January, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Base effects should cut services inflation, while weaker costs continue to reduce goods inflation.
- Another ONS update to the CPI weights should have only a small impact outside of airfares.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We remain optimistic about GDP this year, expecting quarter-to-quarter growth to average 0.3%.
- Energy-price falls will lower inflation below 2% in Q2, supporting the real wage outlook.
- We expect the MPC to lower rates by 75bp in 2024, but sticky services inflation could delay the first cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
