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5th Mar 2024 19:16UK, Daily Monitor

  • Constrained by economic forecasts, the Chancellor mustered tax cuts of only 0.5% of GDP in 2024/25.
  • That boosts GDP 0.2%, and inflation less. Duty freezes lower MPC near-term inflation forecasts 0.2pp.
  • This won’t shift the economic needle, or the MPC’s thinking, much. We expect the first rate cut in June.

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Keywords for: 7 March 2024 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence