UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We estimate the Chancellor’s headroom for tax cuts will double to £25bn, mainly due to lower debt interest costs.
- The Chancellor will likely use most of that headroom for personal tax cuts and revving up the housing market.
- Markets will assume the next government will hike taxes to return government finances to a sustainable path.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still consistent with GDP growth exceeding the MPC’s forecast, and a very gradual slowing in services CPI inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Borrowing in 2023/24 set to undershoot the OBR’s forecast by £10B, despite January’s smaller-than-expected surplus.
Samuel TombsUK
- PMI data point to GDP rising 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1; firms expect the upturn to gather momentum ahead.
- The services employment index exceeds its 1998-to-2019 average, bringing the risk of labour market re-tightening.
- The recovery, however, has been supported by expectations of falling rates; the MPC needs to deliver some cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
PRICES HAVE TURNED A CORNER; EXPECT A 5% RISE IN 2024...
- ...AS REAL INCOMES RISE & MORTGAGE RATES EDGE LOWER
Samuel TombsUK
- Public borrowing in 2023/24 is set to undershoot the OBR’s Autumn Statement forecast by about £10B.
- The OBR will revise down its forecast for debt interest payments in 2024/25 by around £14B...
- ...enabling Mr. Hunt to cut taxes materially without risking markets’ ire with higher debt issuance projections.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC will see labour market data for April, showing the impact of the NLW hike on wages, if it waits until June.
- The MPC also will have two more CPI reports to hand if it waits until June; both likely will show sub-2% inflation.
- Most Committee members would rather wait too long than cut prematurely; the cost of waiting should be low.
Samuel TombsUK
- The response rate to the Labour Force Survey of households remained low in Q4, despite reforms.
- The response rate for the “TLFS”, which is set to replace the LFS in September, is only slightly higher.
- The response rates for the business surveys used for the GDP and wages figures, however, remain high.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Further narrowing likely this year, reducing sterling’s sensitivity to the risk profile of foreign investors.
UK
In one line: Amid the monthly volatility, signs of a consumer-led recovery taking hold.
Samuel TombsUK
- Smooth out the huge noise in December and January retail sales and the trend is improving.
- Sales volumes rose 1.5% between October and January, as falling inflation boosted consumer spending power.
- In 2024, we expect real wages to rise the most in 17 years, propelling the UK out of recession.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: GDP will return to a rising path in 2024; the MPC needn’t panic.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Near-term momentum in services price rises is slowing, bolstering Q2 rate cut chances.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC won’t put much weight on news GDP fell again in Q4, not least due to the upward bias in revisions.
- The downside surprise in GDP relative to the MPC’s forecast was largely due to real government expenditure.
- Surveys of business and consumer confidence have strengthened into 2024; expect GDP to rise again in Q1.
Samuel TombsUK
- Headline CPI inflation and services CPI inflation both undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in January.
- Sharp falls in accommodation prices and airfares helped but the underlying rate of services price rises also eased.
- The headline rate still looks set to fall below the 2% target in Q2, with core CPI inflation down to 3.0% by May.
Samuel TombsUK
- The fall in the LFS measure of unemployment in H2 is inconsistent with indicators of improving staff availability.
- The risk of non-response bias is very high; just 15% of approached households participated in the LFS in Q4.
- Ex-bonus wages rose 4.0% month-to-month annual- ised in December, but revisions might alter the picture.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for a below-consensus 1.3% month-to-month rise in January retail sales...
- ...Surveys were very weak, and December’s sharp drop might be revised smaller, reducing scope for a rebound.
- Sticky energy payments might explain some of the gap between rising real disposable income and spending.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation rose merely to 4.1% in January, from 4.0% in December...
- ...But services inflation likely leapt by 0.5pp to 6.9%; January 2023’s fall in the catering CPI likely wasn’t repeated.
- Our services inflation forecast exceeds the MPC’s, but it would still point to slowing near-term momentum.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Further evidence to support our view of a material recovery in house prices this year.
UK
- Most labour demand indicators have weakened a bit further, so employee numbers were likely flat in January.
- LFS data remain of poor quality; the unemployment rate is probably slightly higher than the current data suggest.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in ex-bonus AWE in December, still inconsistent with the inflation target.
Samuel TombsUK
