UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Retail sales are on track to drag the economy out of recession in Q1.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening finances will drive consumer spending this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers’ confidence in their personal financial situation rose to a 28-month high in March.
- Retail sales beat the consensus in February, staying on track for a 1.7% quarter-to-quarter gain in Q1.
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to comfortably exceed the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: MPC gears up for a summer rate cut with tweaks to guidance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Turning point; house prices to rise for the rest of 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fractionally weaker PMI still signals solid recovery and growth beating MPC forecasts.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC’s tweaked guidance moves it closer to cutting rates.
- It continues to set sizeable hurdles to the first cut, downplaying weakening wages and inflation.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but still see risks skewed to a delay until August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing inflation will raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in February, as base effects unwound.
- Every month that passes without inflation surprising the MPC to the upside brings us closer to a rate cut.
- The MPC’s measure of underlying services inflation is proving sticky, however, keeping it cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE’s Q1 Inflation Attitudes survey is encouraging; long-run expectations are below average.
- A methodology change in 2020 distorted the data though, potentially biasing expectations downwards.
- YouGov’s survey, meanwhile, shows long-term expectations 0.4pp above average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will need to cut rates rapidly if the weak Report on Jobs survey is right about pay growth.
- The RoJ reliably shows the direction of pay but is less good at measuring the precise growth rate.
- Other—also reliable—surveys are stronger; pay is slowing, but not as much as the RoJ indicates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Bernanke review, due in April, to recommend three changes to MPC communication.
- These are: to publish interest rate projections, switch to a staff forecast and make more use of scenarios.
- This will cause volatility, as markets learn about the new communication, likely implemented in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price gains heading to 5% year-over-year soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Weaker-than-expected inflation and wages likely raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
- A stronger-than-expected growth rebound suggests some caution still.
- So, we expect no major change to the guidance at the MPC’s meeting on March 21.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong imports worsen the trade deficit.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: GDp on track for strong rebound in Q1, beating MPC forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP’s 0.2% month-to-month gain in January shows last year’s recession will prove fleeting.
- Stripping out the noise, GDP has been improving since the low point last October.
- We expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Downside wage growth surprise will raise MPC confidence that inflation pressures are fading.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Slowing employment growth shows that the labour market continues to loosen gradually.
- LFS sample problems mean the MPC won’t place much weight on the unemployment rate.
- Softer-than-expected wage growth will give the MPC a little extra confidence in a summer rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to 3.5% in February from 4.0% in January.
- Risks are for a lower reading, as our headline CPI inflation forecast is on the cusp of rounding to 3.4%.
- We expect services inflation to slow to 6.1% in February, from 6.5%, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
