UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Manufacturing output likely rose in November as auto production recovered after the JLR cyber attack.
- Leading indicators suggest that consumer-facing services were spared the worst of pre-Budget worries.
- Output growth in Q4 2025 will likely run close to the MPC’s forecast and the steer from the PMI.
- In one line: Discounting and post-Budget relief boost autos sales in December, but the trend remains upwards.
- In one line: Look past the dissapointing headline, because forward-looking balances improved and price pressures strengthened.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.3% in December, from 3.2%, as tobacco duties rise.
- A later CPI collection date than we assume would tip our forecast to 3.4% via higher airfares inflation.
- Strong BRC Shop Prices for clothes in December pose an upside risk to our forecast.
- Look past the disappointing headline PMI for December; forward-looking balances improved.
- The Q4 PMI is consistent with 0.0-to-0.2% growth, but new orders point to an improvement in January.
- Price pressures remain stubborn despite weak jobs, which will keep the MPC cautious.
- In one line: The money and credit data for November show a solid footing for activity in 2026.
- Strong ISA savings were likely front-running the Budget rather than signalling weak spending.
- Credit flows to businesses and households rose strongly in November, conveying confidence.
- Mortgage approvals ticked down only slightly, and buyer interest should pick up in 2026.
- The story of 2025 was growth averaging close to potential but inflation much higher than expected.
- We see similar trends in 2026, with growth rebounding in Q1 and inflation proving persistent.
- We expect the MPC to end its rate-cutting cycle with a 25bp Bank Rate reduction in April.
GROWTH AND INFLATION RISKS SHIFT DOWN...
- …BUT WE STILL THINK INFLATION WILL PROVE STICKY
- Q3 GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter, down from 0.2% in Q2.
- Business investment in Q3 was revised up, and declining borrowing costs should boost credit flows.
- The household saving rate fell to 9.5% in Q3, from 10.2% in Q2, and should continue to drop in 2026.
- In one line: Downside news focused in volatile items and partly driven by early discounting, while underlying inflation pressures remained firm.
- In one line: Post-Budget relief boosts manufacturing sentiment, but activity will rise only slowly in 2026.
- In one line:Budget chaos hits retail sales, but arguably by less than might have been feared.
- In one line: Weak house price inflation in October means we cut our Q4 forecast.
- In one line:Fiscal plans rest on shaky foundations.
- In one line: A post-Budget sigh of relief from consumers, and sentiment has further to rise.
- In one line: Cautious cut, we see one more in April, but it will be another closely fought decision.
- The MPC squeezed in a fourth rate cut for 2025 in response to weak wage, growth and inflation data.
- But rate-setters suggested limited room for more cuts, surprising the market hawkishly.
- We expect one more cut in April now, but that could easily be knocked off course by stubborn wages.
- The MPC reduced Bank Rate by 25bp to 3.75% in a widely expected five-to-four vote yesterday.
- But the meeting minutes were guarded, and Governor Bailey struck a hawkish tone on the pace of pay gains.
- We remain comfortable with our call for just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2026; it will be closely fought.
- In one line: Activity should continue to rise in Q1 2026.
