UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Well below the MPC’s forecast, thanks to slowing services CPI inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Much slower wage growth is increasing the chances of a rate cut in H1 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Average weekly wages rose at a month-to-month annualised rate of just 2.9% in September.
- This first estimate will likely be revised up, but the slowing trend is now entrenched; labour market slack is growing.
- Growth in PAYE median pay has also slowed; the case for cutting Bank Rate gradually will be robust by May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Real interest rates will rise further in 2024 if nominal rates hold steady, encouraging extra private-sector saving.
- The effective interest rate on the stock of mortgages will continue to rise, even if Bank Rate is cut sharply.
- The fiscal consolidation will intensify next year; macro policy will remain restrictive even with rate cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The fall in households’ spending will be reversed in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP would have fallen in Q3, if the volatile net trade and inventories components hadn’t support growth...
- ...But growth in real household disposable income will pick up in Q4, enabling both more spending and saving.
- Business investment was in line with pre-Covid norms despite falling in Q3; surveys signal continued resilience.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Casts doubt on the increases in the Nationwide and Halifax measures of house prices.
UK
- We think services inflation fell to 6.7% in October, from 6.9% in September, 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Granted, Index Day was closer than usual to the school holidays, and rents CPI inflation likely continued to rise...
- ...But surveys show that substantially fewer firms raised prices than a year ago, when energy costs soared.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.
Samuel TombsUK
- On balance, survey indicators suggest payroll employee numbers merely held steady in October...
- ...This implies the claimant count rose, given further workforce growth, but it is an imperfect unemployment gauge.
- Month-to-month growth in average weekly wages likely slowed in September, despite public-sector pay deals.
UK
- Momentum in nominal GDP has meant that public borrowing has undershot the OBR’s forecast this year...
- ...But, in the medium term, the outlook for higher debt interest payments will dominate the tax receipts windfall.
- Mr. Hunt will cross his fingers and hope for scope to cut taxes in the Budget, rather than risk markets’ ire this time.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for a 0.2% month-to-month decline in GDP in September, below the no-change consensus.
- Warmer-than-usual weather hit output in the retail and energy-supply sectors; car sales likely plunged too.
- Strikes in the health sector were more disruptive than in August but look set to moderate in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Another weak month, but car sales should rebound next year.
UK
- In one line: Labour and raw material costs are starting to fall, as demand undershoots supply.
Samuel TombsUK
- PMI data signal a mild recession, but we still expect brisk real income growth to lift households’ spending in Q4.
- We have nudged up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2024 to 3.0%, from 2.7%, due to higher energy prices...
- ...But it is still below the MPC’s latest projection; down- side surprises will open the door to rate cuts from Q2.
UK
In one line: Still pointing to a mild recession, but the survey is probably too downbeat.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC’s forecasts imply it doesn’t expect to cut Bank Rate next year, even as modestly as markets expect...
- ...But Mr. Bailey downplayed the forecasts, and the pledge tokeeprates“restrictive” stillleavesroomforcuts.
- We expect services CPI inflation in Q4 to undershoot the MPC’s forecast, easing concerns about upside risks.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: New forecasts signal no rate cuts in 2024, but the MPC won’t be bound by them.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The destocking process which is weighing on manufacturing output has further to run.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Not the start of a recovery, yet.
UK
