UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Energy-price rises, if sustained, would add 0.2-to-0.3pp to UK inflation in July, and 0.2pp at year-end.
- The market’s 50:50 probability of a March cut looks fair in these early hours after events in the Middle East.
- But two MPC rate cuts this year are unlikely if energy prices drive inflation to re-accelerate in H2 2026.
- Easing inflation expectations and a soft labour-market report seal a March rate cut...
- ...But the activity data remain solid, and business surveys point to sticky price pressures.
- So, we continue to expect just one more cut to Bank Rate this year.
- House prices rose by a respectable 2.4% on average in Q4, down only slightly from 2.5% in Q4 2026.
- 2025’s stamp-duty hike and mansion tax are weighing on house prices in London and the South East.
- A sharp drop in household inflation expectations in February seals a March rate cut.
- The latest public finances data will support the Chancellor by showing borrowing below profile.
- But the headline figures flatter the overall picture, where spending pressures are higher.
- We expect the OBR to revise down borrowing in 2030/31 slightly, though policy U-turns are mounting.
- A surge in retail sales growth in January points to upside risk to GDP growth in Q1.
- The PMI suggests that business sentiment is also improving as policy uncertainty wanes.
- But the dismal weather so far this year means we hold fire on raising our Q1 growth forecast from 0.3%.
- A jump in payroll-measured productivity has coincided with the proliferation of AI tools.
- Studies link AI exposure and weak hiring in some sectors, but the impact is tiny at a macro level, so far.
- The impact of AI will build over time, but the general equilibrium effects on the economy are hard to call.
- Unemployment hit a five-year high in December, meaning the MPC will cut Bank Rate in March.
- But the LFS data remain unreliable, while other indicators suggest a stabilising labour market.
- Strong retail sales and a jump in the PMI leave GDP on track to rise by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1.
- Insolvencies fell year-over-year in January despite months of political chaos causing weaker growth.
- Retail insolvencies have risen, likely as 2025’s payroll-tax and minimum-wage hikes hit the sector hard.
- But overall business failures should drop a little in 2026, as growth recovers and borrowing costs fall.
- In one line: Inflation miss too small to stop a March rate cut, but stubborn services inflation means a second cut this year is far from certain.
- In one line: The housing market was resilient in 2025, but prices will rise more quickly in 2026.
- Energy, education, food, rents and airfares cut inflation to 3.0% in January, and further falls are likely.
- But services inflation exceeded the MPC’s forecast by 30bp, and underlying inflation accelerated.
- A March rate cut remains highly likely despite the inflation miss, as rate-setters focus on unemployment.
- In one line: Consumers’ spending will boost January GDP growth.
- In one line: Momentum is building in the housing market.
- In one line: The trade deficit has some room to further improve.
- In one line:Disappointing Q4 keeps a March rate cut on track, but underlying momentum looks too solid for more than one rate cut this year.
- In one line: Hiring sentiment has further to improve in Q1.
- In one line: Unemployment rate at 5-year high should seal a March rate cut, but more timely data suggests stabilisation.
- Jobless rate hitting a 5-year high of 5.2% in December makes a March rate cut more likely.
- But payrolls beat consensus and have nearly stabilised, while redundancies appear to have peaked.
- Private pay rose by the most month-to-month since April and will likely exceed the MPC’s January call.
- We reflect on our calls, and what we should learn from the misses, in our 500th UK Economic Monitor.
- Solid growth and persistent inflation in 2025 panned out, but job growth was weaker than we expected.
- Our three key themes now? The high neutral rate; structural labour-market shifts; persistent inflation.
- Further evidence of a rebound in growth came from the January RICS, BRC and REC surveys.
- Q4 GDP disappointed consensus—not us—but the crucial business service sectors can drive a better Q1.
- We expect inflation 0.1pp higher than the MPC, and payrolls to fall 10K month-to-month, in January.
