Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, September 2024

  • In one line: House price inflation surges after MPC rate cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 October 2024 UK Monitor Disposable income growth will keep consumption ticking along

  • Disposable income surged 2.8% in H1 2024, but consumer spending rose only 0.8%.
  • We expect the resulting jump in the saving rate to reverse through 2025, supporting consumption.
  • Disposable income growth will slow, but remain solid at 1.3% year-over-year in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 October 2024 UK Monitor Gilts are repricing for slower cuts rather than sovereign risk

  • We think the recent surge in gilt yields reflects stronger US data and inflation risks.
  • A change to the fiscal rules will likely result in more borrowing in the upcoming Budget on October 30…
  • ...but that likely had only a modest effect on market pricing, with little change in sovereign risk premia.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, September 2024

  • In one line: Retail sales rise solidly, shrugging off Budget uncertainty.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 October 2024 UK Monitor CPI preview: services to inflation to drop to 5.4% in September

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August, 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • All of the undershoot relative to the MPC’s call is accounted for by falling motor fuel prices.
  • CPI services inflation will likely slip 0.2pp to 5.4%, as a hotel price jump partially offset a fall in airfares. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

8 October 2024 UK Monitor Labour market preview: hiring pause with strong wage growth

  • September business surveys suggest a hiring pause ahead of the October 30 Budget.
  • We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in September and the August jobless rate held at 4.1%.
  • The DMP and PAYE pay point to a 0.6% month-to-month private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, September 2024

  • In one line: The REC stays weak, supporting another 25bp rate cut in November.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

7 October 2024 UK Monitor Governor Bailey lowers the bar to consecutive rate cuts

  • BoE Governor Bailey’s Guardian interview has raised the risk of rate cuts at consecutive MPC meetings.
  • We expect the MPC to cut once a quarter, but see four rate cuts in 2025 from three previously.
  • We expect higher inflation than the MPC, growth remains solid and MPC guidance is for gradual cuts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, September 2024

  • In one line: The PMI surges as lower borrowing costs and optimism boost activity.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, September 2024

  • In one line: 

    Private sales fall again on an annual basis, but consumer confidence still points to an upturn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, September 2024

  • In one line: Recruitment difficulties ease but inflation and wage growth prove stubbornly elevated.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, September 2024

  • In one line: The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 October 2024 UK Monitor The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget

  • The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
  • It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
  • BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

3 October 2024 UK Monitor GDP likely grew 0.2% month-to-month in August

  • We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in August, as retail sales grow and doctors’ strikes end.
  • Manufacturing output should also rebound from erratic weakness in July.
  • We look for Q3 growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, but GDP revisions pose a downside risk.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, September 2024

  • In one line: The MPC will cut gradually, next in November and then in February.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, September 2024

  • In one line: The PMI dips in September on Budget uncertainty, but output growth remains strong.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

2 October 2024 UK Monitor CPI preview: CPI inflation to fall to 1.9% in September

  • Sharply falling motor fuel prices will drag down CPI inflation to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August.
  • Core goods inflation should hold at 0.3% year-over-year, but BRC Shop Prices pose a downside risk.
  • We expect core and services inflation close to theMPC’s August Monetary Policy Report forecast.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK National Accounts, Q2 2024

  • In one line: Q2 GDP growth revised down but remains above potential, while downward saving rate revisions point to slightly less cautious consumers.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

1 October 2024 UK Monitor GDP will keep rising faster than potential as consumers spend

  • Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, but the mix of growth is better…
  • …Business capex growth was revised up and cuts to the saving rate signal less cautious consumers.
  • Surging mortgage approvals show consumers are responding quickly to the MPC’s interest rate cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, August 2024

  • In one line: MPC interest rate cuts are boosting the housing market and corporate borrowing.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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