Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, March

  • In one line: House prices jump in March, but further gains will be more challenging as markets reprice rate cuts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

24 May 2024 UK Monitor PMI shows that the inflation downtrend remains on track

  • The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
  • The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
  • So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April 2024

  • In one line: June rate cut off the cards as services barely slows.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, April 2024

  • In one line: There isn't room for tax cuts but the Chancellor seems set on another fiscal event in the Autumn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

23 May 2024 UK Monitor Services inflation surprise means MPC will wait until August to cut

  • We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August, versus June previously, following strong April inflation.
  • Services inflation barely slowed in April and was 0.4pp stronger than the MPC expected.
  • The services strength was widespread and not concentrated in a handful of erratic items.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

22 May 2024 UK Monitor Modestly stronger potential growth after the general election

  • Polls suggest the Labour Party will win the general election that must be held by January 2025.
  • The party plans supply-side boosting initiatives, from freeing planning rules to ‘crowding in’ investment.
  • Those policies pose modest upside risk to current UK potential growth of around 1.5% per year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

21 May 2024 UK Monitor Gilt yields will fall, but not as much as you might expect

  • We expect two-year gilt yields to fall to 3.9% by end- 2024 as the MPC cuts rates.
  • But high government refinancing and BoE gilt sales limit the fall in 10-year gilt yields to 4.0% at end-2024.
  • Upside risks remain from inflation persistence and implausibly low public-spending forecasts.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

20 May 2024 UK Monitor Strong net trade in Q1 does not make GDP growth unsustainable

  • We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
  • Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
  • Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 May 2024 UK Monitor Sticking to June rate cut, as MPC words lately matter more than data

  • We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
  • The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
  • ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, March / April 2024

  • In one line: Slowing jobs growth keeps MPC rate cut on track , despite strong wage growth.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 May 2024 UK Monitor Unwinding of the BoE's balance sheet set to continue at pace

  • We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
  • The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
  • Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, March 2024

  • In one line: Falling energy prices improve trade deficit.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 May 2024 UK Monitor Gradually easing labour market keeps MPC on track to cut in June

  • Sharply falling LFS employment suggests the labour market is easing quickly.
  • But those data are misleading, and PAYE jobs will be revised up; the labour market is easing gradually.
  • The MPC needs to brace for another strong pay gain in April, but will likely cut in June nonetheless.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 May 2024 UK Monitor CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in April, below the MPC's forecast

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in April, from 3.2% in March, 0.1pp lower than the MPC forecast.
  • Ofgem’s utility-price-cap cut as well as slowing goods and food inflation chop 95bp off inflation.
  • We expect services inflation to decline to 5.4% in April, as indexed price rises are lower than in 2023.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, March 2024

  • In one line: Back with a bang, upside risks to our growth forecast.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

13 May 2024 UK Monitor Economy bounces back strongly from recession

  • GDP grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, the strongest since Q4 2021.
  • The recovery has been broad-based across sectors and will continue as consumers spend rising income.
  • Strong growth shows interest rates are likely not as restrictive as the MPC is factoring in.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, April 2024

  • In one line: Still uncomfortably weak enough for the MPC to cut rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, April 2024

  • In one line: Encouraging as higher mortgage rates slow price inflation only a little. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 May 2024 UK Monitor June is live after MPC chops inflation forecasts

  • A triple whammy of changes from the MPC suggests a June rate cut is more likely than not.
  •  Two rate-setters voted for a cut, and MPC forecasts indicate three Bank Rate reductions this year.
  •  The MPC’s guidance signals that pay settlements data over the next two months could seal the deal.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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