UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- We expect household real income to rise 2.2% year-over-year in 2024...
- ...As real wage growth stays strong, and Chancellor Hunt’s tax cuts add 0.8pp.
- A falling saving rate will help too; consumption should rise 0.5% quarter-to-quarter through 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for PAYE employment to rise 30K in February and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.8%.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses...
- ...Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to exceed the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expected interest rate cuts breathe life into house building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Constrained by economic forecasts, the Chancellor mustered tax cuts of only 0.5% of GDP in 2024/25.
- That boosts GDP 0.2%, and inflation less. Duty freezes lower MPC near-term inflation forecasts 0.2pp.
- This won’t shift the economic needle, or the MPC’s thinking, much. We expect the first rate cut in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast, supporting services inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stagnant, but real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rain stopped play, sales will recover.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP rose 0.2% month-to-month in January, as retail sales stormed back from December’s drop.
- That is not a flash in the pan, as the PMI shows firms’ optimism in the growth outlook at a two-year high.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.5% in February, from 4.0% in January, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Base effects should cut services inflation, while weaker costs continue to reduce goods inflation.
- Another ONS update to the CPI weights should have only a small impact outside of airfares.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumer credit rebound backs up retail sales recovery in January.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Large bounce in the output index looks suspicious.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Mortgage rate falls do the trick.
Samuel TombsUK
- We remain optimistic about GDP this year, expecting quarter-to-quarter growth to average 0.3%.
- Energy-price falls will lower inflation below 2% in Q2, supporting the real wage outlook.
- We expect the MPC to lower rates by 75bp in 2024, but sticky services inflation could delay the first cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The stronger flow of consumer credit in January backs up the rebound in retail sales.
- Households’ real liquid assets are rising faster than pre-Covid, thanks to higher saving and lower inflation.
- Consumers do not need to raise their saving rate, so real wage gains will boost spending in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The PMI output prices balance implies the underlying services CPI is still rising at a 5% annualised pace.
- Take that signal seriously; the balance has reliably captured big service inflation swings in the past.
- Other surveys support the PMI, showing still- elevated wage growth is driving services inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- House prices have continued to recover over the winter, but sales instructions are also rising alongside demand.
- Affordability will remain a key barrier for many would-be buyers this year.
- We will need to revise up our forecast for a 5% rise in prices between Q1 and Q4 if Mr. Hunt cuts stamp duty.
Samuel TombsUK
- The effective rate on the stock of mortgages likely will rise by about 50bp this year, less than 2023’s 86bp increase...
- ...Fewer households have to refinance in 2024, and the rate increase for those that do will be much smaller.
- The household debt-to-income ratio has fallen to just 122%, well below its 2015-to-2019 average, 135%.
Samuel TombsUK
CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-2.0% AS SOON AS Q2...
- ...BUT STICKY WAGE GROWTH WILL LIMIT RATE CUTS
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Forget the small drop; improving real wage growth will keep confidence rising.
Samuel TombsUK
- We estimate the Chancellor’s headroom for tax cuts will double to £25bn, mainly due to lower debt interest costs.
- The Chancellor will likely use most of that headroom for personal tax cuts and revving up the housing market.
- Markets will assume the next government will hike taxes to return government finances to a sustainable path.
Samuel TombsUK
