UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: The PMI surges as lower borrowing costs and optimism boost activity.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Recruitment difficulties ease but inflation and wage growth prove stubbornly elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
- It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
- BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in August, as retail sales grow and doctors’ strikes end.
- Manufacturing output should also rebound from erratic weakness in July.
- We look for Q3 growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, but GDP revisions pose a downside risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The MPC will cut gradually, next in November and then in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI dips in September on Budget uncertainty, but output growth remains strong.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sharply falling motor fuel prices will drag down CPI inflation to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August.
- Core goods inflation should hold at 0.3% year-over-year, but BRC Shop Prices pose a downside risk.
- We expect core and services inflation close to theMPC’s August Monetary Policy Report forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Q2 GDP growth revised down but remains above potential, while downward saving rate revisions point to slightly less cautious consumers.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, but the mix of growth is better…
- …Business capex growth was revised up and cuts to the saving rate signal less cautious consumers.
- Surging mortgage approvals show consumers are responding quickly to the MPC’s interest rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: MPC interest rate cuts are boosting the housing market and corporate borrowing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rebound strongly in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We have nudged down our Q3 GDP growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter after GDP flatlined in July.
- We lift our 2025 inflation forecast as we add in above inflation duty hikes and private school fee rises.
- We expect a 25bp rate cut in November and three more in 2025, as the MPC guides to “gradual cuts”.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A suite of Taylor rules forecasts Bank Rate between 3.4% and 4.3% at the end of 2025.
- These forecasts are based on MPC inflation and growth projections, which we think are too low.
- Policy rules that are more robust to uncertainty about the neutral rate suggest more gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE-PRICE RECOVERY FALTERS IN JULY, BUT IT’S A BLIP...
- ...PRICE INFLATION WILL ACCELERATE TO 4.5% IN DECEMBER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A Chancellor scrabbling for tax revenue will likely turn to alcohol and tobacco duty hikes.
- We expect Ms. Reeves to raise tobacco duty—by 4% above RPI inflation—and alcohol duty in December.
- Our forecasts include a 10% private-school fee hike, split September 2024, January and September 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth will bounce back but easing inflation will lead the MPC to cut rates in November.
Samuel TombsUK
- We expect house price inflation to accelerate to 4.5% year-over-year in December.
- MPC rate cuts, solid wage growth and low unemployment will drive that housing rebound.
- Forward-looking indicators suggest upside risk; they point to 6% year-over-year house price gains.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
