UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: RICS falters in July but it will gradually rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Strong GDP growth in H1 illustrates a high neutral rate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Above-consensus payrolls and GDP growth show the job market is recovering and growth is holding firm.
- The MPC faces rebounding growth, a stabilising job market and inflation miles above target.
- We expect CPI inflation for July to come in fractionally below the MPC’s forecast at 3.7%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The REC improves in July but signals the jobs market remains weak.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressure despite falling employment suggests a cautious MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: We’re comfortable assuming the MPC on hold for the rest of this year after hawkish guidance changes and vote.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Official retail sales will rise at a healthy clip in July.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A stabilising labour market and elevated pay growth constrain the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A tight vote split and cautious guidance make the MPC’s August cut to Bank Rate hawkish.
- Inflation averaging 3.7% for the rest of the year means August’s rate cut will be the last in 2025.
- The data-flow will firm up this week, to show GDP growth rebounding and payrolls barely falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE PRICES REBOUND IN MAY...
- ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN H2
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC cut by 25bp but was much more hawkish, with a tighter-than-expected 5-to-4 vote in favour.
- The MPC added more cautious guidance, lifted its inflation forecasts and said upside risks had risen.
- So, we maintain our forecast for no more rate cuts this year, which the market moved closer to pricing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Car registrations will bounce back as borrowing costs fall and the market normalises after duty hikes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but inflation is proving persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI should gradually improve as borrowing costs fall and the Government spends big.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuels and airfares rise.
- CPI collected close to school vacations should boost travel prices, while domestic hotel prices likely rose.
- We expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September and still be at 3.7% in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
- We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity should gradually recover as tariff-uncertainty fades.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market recovery is underway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Underlying growth is fine, helped by consumers; we look for GDP to grow by 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Payroll falls are a risk, but we think they exaggerate job losses, and in any case vacancies are stabilising.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, so the MPC will have to pause after it cuts in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
