UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Signs of stubborn wage growth despite weak jobs are widespread.
In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed.
In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.
- In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.
- In one line: House price inflation should accelerate slightly now that the Budget is behind us.
- In one line: The money and credit data suggests few pre-Budget worries in October.
- In one line: Holding up well in the face of chaotic Budget speculation through November.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 13K month-to-month in November, as Budget worries hit jobs.
- The headline LFS unemployment rate will hold at 5.0% in October, as August’s single-month rise corrects.
- Pay growth to slow in October, but wage gains look set to stabilise over the coming 12 months.
- We expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
- A month-to-month fall in food prices and base effects from duty hikes in 2024 will drag inflation lower.
- Our forecast for headline CPI inflation in November sees it 10bp higher than the MPC expects.
- Chaotic pre-Budget tax-hike speculation shifts the risk to our growth forecasts to the downside.
- The Chancellor’s decision to increase fuel duty from September 2026 raises our 2027 inflation forecast.
- We expect the MPC to cut in December and hold in 2026, but are close to adding an April 2026 cut too.
- Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
- But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
- The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.
- Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
- But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer.
- So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.
- We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
- Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
- Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.
- Consumers added to their savings and took on less credit in October, as the Budget approached.
- Bank lending to firms continues to rise year-over-year, but net external finance raised by PNFCs dropped.
- The housing-market data remain solid; mortgage approvals eased only slightly and transactions rose.
- In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.
- The Chancellor is gambling on the MPC cutting rates rapidly, but the Budget provides little reason to do so.
- We think gilts are ripe for a sell-off as the market digests the details of shaky Budget plans.
- This week’s data releases will show a only small hit to activity from months of pre-Budget speculation.
- In one line: Dovish even if the PMI overreacts to politics, so a December rate cut is even more likely.
- A tax-and-spend budget that delayed fiscal consolidation will struggle to drive a sustained gilt rally.
- Measures to cut CPI inflation by 50bp in mid-2026 leave a December rate cut nailed on…
- …but the Budget will boost the MPC’s inflation forecasts fractionally from 2027.
- The Chancellor will likely to confirm a 4.1% rise in the National Living Wage in the Budget…
- …But 18-to-20-year-olds will see a much bigger rise, while the ‘Real Living Wage’ increases 6.7%.
- The BoE now expects a 3.5% rise in pay settlements in 2025, likely supported by hikes for the low paid.
- The bar to data preventing a December MPC rate cut is now very high, in our view…
- …But we expect an extended pause after a December cut, with inflation and growth likely to hold up.
- The Budget will likely be less disinflationary and less credible after Ms. Reeves ditched an income-tax hike.
