UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line:Retail sales should continue to rise despite Budget uncertainty.
- In one line: Consumers are resilient in the face of tax hike rumours.
- In one line: Growth to hold up in Q4 despite Budget uncertainty, but softening inflation indicators gives the MPC doves hope.
- September inflation undershooting consensus pulled forward our rate-cut call to December, from February.
- We still think the MPC will skip November, especially with growth data last week showing resilience.
- Little data this week to shift November MPC pricing, but the BRC Shop Price Index will likely accelerate.
- In one line: The trade deficit is trending sideways as gas prices keep import costs elevated.
- In one line:Growth runs close to potential, limiting the emergence of spare capacity.
- In one line:Borrowing overshoot shrinks but the Chancellor still has to raise taxes or cut spending by at least £25B.
- Plenty of small caveats suggest we treat the downside inflation surprise with a little caution…
- ...But the dovish news was too widespread to ignore, so we cut our forecasts and see a December rate cut.
- We still think the MPC will skip a November cut, with inflation nearly double its target.
- The ONS revised down borrowing by £4.2B, as an error in the collection of VAT receipts was corrected…
- …But borrowing is still £7.2B higher than the OBR forecast for the first half of fiscal year 2025/26.
We expect £33B of tax hikes and spending cuts in the Budget, back-loaded to 2029/30.
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- We have thrown in the towel and include in our forecasts a cut to energy bills in November’s Budget.
- All told, we lower our inflation forecast by 16bp for one year from April 2026.
- We struggle to see the Chancellor freezing fuel duty completely though, given the £5B-per-year cost.
- We now expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in February; previously we expected no change.
- Our rate call change is tactical—five MPC doves seem keen—as sticky inflation requires caution.
- Our hotel price tracker suggests limited impact from the tube strike, but the risk is for a 4.1% inflation print.
- GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in August, after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in July.
- GDP growth will match our call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, 0.4%.
- Underlying GDP growth has slowed due to Budget uncertainty but is still close to potential.
- The next forecast round from the OBR will likely show the Chancellor’s headroom has become a £25B hole.
- We think the government will target headroom of £20B, requiring £35B in tax hikes and spending cuts.
- Stealth, sin, property and pensions taxes will fill most of the black hole in our view.
- In one line: Weaking wage growth makes this a dovish release, but the underlying story is a stabilising labour market with jobs no longer falling.
- In one line: Retail sales holding up given a tube shutdown and wet weather in September.
- MPC doves will seize on weaker-than-expected pay growth, so we now expect a rate cut in February 2026.
- But the underlying story is of stabilising jobs, which will limit the build-up of further slack.
- Accordingly, we think the MPC will be limited to only one more rate cut over the next year.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 4.0% in September from 3.8% in August.
- Motor fuel and airfare base effects should together add 23bp to inflation compared to August.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, so we expect headline inflation to slow only to 3.8% by December.
- In one line: Payroll falls will ease as tax hike hit begins to fade.
- The strongest September car sales in five years indicate signs of life in the consumer.
- September’s REC survey points to easing payroll falls, so we look for an 8K month-to-month drop.
- We doubt graduate recruitment will drag much on payroll growth in September.
- In one line: Budget uncertainty will keep housing market weak until November.
