UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: House price inflation has further to drop as the Iran War dents sentiment and boosts borrowing costs.
- In one line:Retail sales supporting GDP in Q1, but consumers’ spending growth will ease in the coming months.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence has further to fall in 2026.
- In one line: Households and businesses on solid financial footing heading into the energy price shock.
- In one line: The housing market will weaken over the course of 2026.
- The data-flow over the past month has been solid, with underlying growth rising and payrolls stabilising…
- ...But the war in Iran means we cut our growth forecasts and raise our inflation projections.
- We see rates on hold in 2026, but it is hard to argue with market pricing for several hikes.
IRAN WAR RAISES INFLATION AND CUTS GROWTH...
- …MPC WILL HAVE TO STAY ON HOLD
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
- In one line: Slowing pay growth keeps the bar to a hike high, but payrolls show the labour market rebounding ahead of the Iran war.
- In one line: MPC surprises market hawkishly, guidance symmetric but more open to hikes than expected.
- In one line:The public finances will be hit hard if high energy prices persist for long.
- Higher-for-longer energy prices raise our inflation forecast, and we now build in second-round effects.
- We cut our GDP growth forecast another 0.5%—now 0.8% since the war started—partly due to higher rates.
- Market pricing for three hikes is too many, but not wildly too many given upside risk to energy.
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
- In one line: Higher energy costs will weigh on the trade balance.
- In one line:January disappointment partly driven by erratic sectors that will rebound, but we shave our Q1 growth call to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Markets are pricing a more persistent energy-price rise as the war in Iran continues.
- As a result, markets have started to price in higher medium- as well as short-term inflation.
- We see Bank Rate on hold throughout 2026, but that is sensitive to energy and the government’s response.
- In one line: War in the Middle East will hit housing market sentiment in the coming months.
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with Ms. Dhingra and Mr. Taylor voting for a cut.
- The data flow has been slightly dovish lately, but war in Iran has ripped up the ‘disinflation’ playbook.
- Guidance will shift towards giving rate-setters the option to hike in 2026, if required.
- In one line: Retail sales growth should pick up when the weather clears, but war in the Middle East remains a downside risk to activity.
