UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
THE RUN OF BAD INFLATION NEWS WILL END SHORTLY...
- ...THE MPC NEEDS TO HIKE BANK RATE ONLY ONE LAST TIME
- Gilts welcomed the likely smooth transition to a new prime minister after Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation.
- Even so, political risk has offset most of the drag on gilt yields from oil-price falls since their late-April peak.
- Younger people’s waning confidence may signal slowing growth, in contrast to aggregate surveys.
- Andy Burnham is almost certain to become the UK’s next prime minister, but the timeline remains cloudy.
- Timing may prevent an expansionary Budget in 2026, but gilts have rightly priced in longer term fiscal risks.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing at a glacial pace while the labour market steadied in April/May.
- Most rate-setters want an extended Bank Rate hold, though Catherine Mann is weighing a “forceful” hike.
- Risks of a hike remain higher than a cut, with the MPC attentive to upside inflation risks.
- Labour market data mostly surprised in a hawkish direction, suggesting slack is barely rising.
- In one line: Focus on services strength rather than a headline rate dragged down by surprising food and goods inflation slowing.
- In one line: Base effects flatter April house prices, activity will grind down in the coming months.
- Focus on solid services inflation rather than weaker- than-expected headline inflation.
- The headline inflation miss is smaller than it looks and producer prices point to goods weakness reversing.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing only gradually and remains consistent with above target inflation.
- In one line: Consumer spending growth has slowed only a little since the Iran war started.
- In one line: Political drama likely weighed on the RICS in May, but underlying activity remains weak.
- In one line: GDP still on track to grow 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, despite unwinding fuel hoarding and a doctor's strike cutting output in April.
- In one line: High energy costs begin to feed through to core import price inflation.
- In one line: Uncertainty hits hiring plans in May, but sentiment is likely better now than the REC suggests.
- In one line: Slowing growth and easing price pressures skews risks towards rates on hold in 2026.
- In one line: Construction PMI likely too downbeat, but output still set to fall over the coming months.
- In one line:Car registrations resilient in May but demand will slow as higher borrowing costs bite.
- In one line: Easing price expectations and falling jobs raise the chances of the MPC keeping rates on hold.
- We expect CPI inflation to increase to 3.0% in May, from 2.8% in April.
- Airfares will recover, and last year’s vehicle-duty correction will boost recorded inflation.
- Motor fuel prices have peaked, but utility and food bills will push inflation to a peak of 3.6% in November.
- In one line: Consumers and firms look solid in April even if some borrowing was front-running rate hikes.
- In one line: House price inflation to gradually ease over the rest of the year.
- In one line: Manufacturing growth will slow as front-running unwinds, but price pressures are building.
