Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, May 2024

  • In one line: Higher mortgage rates take a toll but estate agents expect a recovery later in the year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, May 2024

  • In one line: Higher mortgage rates take a toll but estate agents expect a recovery later in the year. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 June 2024 UK Monitor MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut

  • We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to hold Bank Rate, after growth, wages and inflation beat its forecasts.
  • Inflation persistence fading more slowly than expected means the MPC will keep its guidance unchanged.
  • We think slowing wage growth and inflation will trigger a rate cut in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, April 2024

  • In one line: Not a lot happening once we look through the noise from erratics, gold and fuel.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP April 2024

  • In one line: Flat GDP is a result, leaving the economy on track to grow 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

13 June 2024 UK Monitor Steady April GDP is a good result given retail sales tanked

  • We think unchanged GDP month-to-month in April signals a strong underlying trend.
  • GDP held steady despite erratic and rain-disrupted sectors slicing 0.4pp off month-to-month growth.
  • We upgrade our growth forecast to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.2% call.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, April / May 2024

  • In one line: Not as bad as feared, labour market is easing and wage growth will follow. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

12 June 2024 UK Monitor Labour market data boosts the chances of an August rate cut

  • The labour market appears to be easing gradually, with employment likely flat and unemployment rising.
  • Slowing underlying pay momentum is being masked by the temporary boost from April’s NLW hike.
  • A gradually easing labour market, and falling inflation, will allow the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 June 2024 UK Monitor CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in May, above the MPC's forecast

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC forecast.
  • We estimate that half of the April services inflation surprise was a one-off that will drop out in May.
  • The MPC can still cut Bank Rate in August as long as inflation keeps slowing, but it will be cautious.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, May 2024

  • In one line: Surveys are playing ball, the hard data will follow.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, May 2024

  • In one line: Construction growth accelerates further, supporting the recovery from last year's recession.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 June 2024 UK Monitor Tax increases will likely be required to fill fiscal black holes

  • The next government will inherit no fiscal headroom and implausible public-spending forecasts.
  • The Labour Party has ruled out increases to three-quarters of the tax base, limiting options.
  • We expect the next government to raise duties, tier BoE reserves, and increase public spending.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May

  •  In one line: Cautious consumers keep private car sales falling.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

7 June 2024 UK Monitor GDP likely fell 0.2% month-to-month in April

  • We think GDP fell 0.2% month-to-month in April, as wet weather reduced consumer spending.
  • We still expect 0.3% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q2, as retail sales should bounce back in May…
  • ...Business surveys, moreover, suggest output growth remains robust.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May 2024

  • In one line: Cautious consumers keep private sales falling.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

6 June 2024 UK Monitor The MPC will be encouraged by the PMI showing inflation slowing

  • The final composite PMI for May points to 0.25% quarter-to-quarter growth.
  • Firms are responding to rising output by hiring, suggesting official employment data will rebound soon.
  • The PMI indicates services inflation will slow ahead of the MPC’s August interest rate decision.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2024

  • In one line: Retail sales bounce back from April’s catastrophe.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

5 June 2024 UK Monitor CPI inflation should fall to 2.0% in May as goods inflation slows

  • We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
  • Almost all the slowdown comes from core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation.
  • We expect services inflation to slow but still exceed the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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