UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Underlying inflation accelerating tips the balance towards rate hikes if oil prices stay high, or limits the room for cuts if oil prices fall back.
- In one line: Stabilising jobs and unemployment fall challenges the MPC assessment of how fast the labour market was loosening.
- In one line: House price inflation to remain weak in 2026.
- Payrolls were stable in March, despite the Iran war, once we adjust for likely revisions.
- Unemployment corrected for last August’s volatile rise and suggests the MPC was too pessimistic.
- Slowing pay growth was dovish, but PAYE median pay and surveys suggest the official data have undershot.
- February GDP exaggerates monthly growth, but stripping out noise the economy was growing solidly.
- Oil prices consistently below $100/bl mean we are close to removing our forecast for an MPC rate hike.
- A payroll fall and wage slowdown in this week’s data will keep the MPC cautious about hiking.
- In one line: Import price growth will jump in the coming months.
- In one line:About half of the February GDP gain was erratic, but that still leaves signs of improving underlying growth as Budget uncertainty eased.
- In one line: Housing market activity will grind down over the course of 2026.
- In one line: Construction sector activity to remain weak in the coming months.
- February GDP exaggerates the growth trend, because of erratic gains in a number of sectors.
- But growth was surprisingly strong even if we strip out the noise; the economy was recovering.
- We now look for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- In one line: Surging input prices will worry the MPC.
- In one line: Growth in autos registrations will ease in the coming months.
- In one line: Job market stable in March, but high inflation will weigh on employment in 2026.
- In one line: BRC sales flattered by early Easter in March, growth will slow in April.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
- The temporary two-week ceasefire is already under strain, suggesting energy prices will remain high...
- ...and the data-flow since the start of the Iran war has been fractionally hawkish, in our view.
- But the MPC will wait for more clarity before jumping, so we expect a hold in April and a rate hike in June.
- In one line: House price inflation has further to drop as the Iran War dents sentiment and boosts borrowing costs.
- In one line:Retail sales supporting GDP in Q1, but consumers’ spending growth will ease in the coming months.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence has further to fall in 2026.
- In one line: Households and businesses on solid financial footing heading into the energy price shock.
