UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Consumers’ spending will boost January GDP growth.
- In one line: Momentum is building in the housing market.
- In one line: The trade deficit has some room to further improve.
- In one line:Disappointing Q4 keeps a March rate cut on track, but underlying momentum looks too solid for more than one rate cut this year.
- In one line: Hiring sentiment has further to improve in Q1.
- In one line: Unemployment rate at 5-year high should seal a March rate cut, but more timely data suggests stabilisation.
- We reflect on our calls, and what we should learn from the misses, in our 500th UK Economic Monitor.
- Solid growth and persistent inflation in 2025 panned out, but job growth was weaker than we expected.
- Our three key themes now? The high neutral rate; structural labour-market shifts; persistent inflation.
- Further evidence of a rebound in growth came from the January RICS, BRC and REC surveys.
- Q4 GDP disappointed consensus—not us—but the crucial business service sectors can drive a better Q1.
- We expect inflation 0.1pp higher than the MPC, and payrolls to fall 10K month-to-month, in January.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.0% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- We shaved our call from 3.1% previously, partly as we factor in more generous pub sales than we expected.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel charges mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
- We expect the flash payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month fall in January.
- Stabilising single-month unemployment suggests the headline jobless rate will hold at 5.1% in December.
- Wage inflation will tick down in December, but surveys suggest that pay gains will plateau soon.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.1% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- Education, airfares and energy prices will all contribute to the inflation slowdown at the start of the year.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel prices mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
- The ONS updates CPI weights twice a year, in January and February.
- Our forecast of weight changes raises our inflation forecast only fractionally; by 3bp on average in 2026.
- ONS improvements to hotel price measurement will likely reduce seasonal swings in the component.
- Surveys support our call for GDP growth to have picked up to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- A dovish MPC means we have brought forward our forecast for the next cut to March, from April.
- We think this will be the last reduction in this rate cycle, however, as wages are proving sticky.
- In one line: Dovish vote and minutes make March close call and signal a desire to cut twice this year at least.
- In one line: Construction activity to grind only modestly higher as tailwinds dissipate.
- In one line: Autos registrations will continue to rise slowly over the coming year.
- In one line: Rebounding growth as uncertainty falls and stubborn price pressures point to just one Bank Rate cut this year.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity can rise at a steady rate in 2026.
- In one line: More downbeat money and credit data, but good enough to signal economic growth close to potential.
- A dovish five-to-four MPC vote to hold rates alongside changes to guidance signal a March rate cut.
- The MPC slashed its two-year-ahead inflation projection by 30bp, justifying two rate cuts this year.
- We shift our call to a March rate cut, from April before, but think sticky pay will stop the MPC easing again.
