UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in July, thanks to retail sales growth and fewer strike days.
- Professional services are the wild card for July; we make a conservative growth assumption.
- Our Q3 growth forecast is close to rounding up to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, above the MPC’s 0.4%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong construction growth continues as interest rate cuts boost demand.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation continues to slow, but the pace of decline is easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The strengthening PMI means the MPC will wait until November to cut rates again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales gain more ground in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing output grows solidly giving firms the confidence to hire again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The final August PMI signals Q3 GDP growth of 0.4-to-0.5% quarter-to-quarter.
- The PMI indicates falling inflation, but rising margins and job growth will keep price rises elevated.
- The MPC has little reason to rush through another rate cut this month; it will wait until November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The July jobless rate should fall to 4.1%, with a risk of a 4.0% print, while LFS job growth should accelerate.
- We look for August PAYE employment to gain 30K month-to-month.
- We assume 0.5% month-to-month AWE growth in July, and a 0.1pp upward revision to growth in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Lower mortgage interest rates boost the housing market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices drop unexpectedly in August, but should rebound as borrowing costs fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers' confidence unchanged in August, but it will improve from here.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers and firms seem gradually to be shifting behaviour in response to expected interest rate cuts.
- Households raised liquid assets by the least in 11 months, and mortgage approvals jumped.
- Smoothing through volatility, corporates have been raising net external finance since March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI is now pointing to Q3 GDP rising by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, below the MPC’s forecast.
- Falling inflation signalled by the August PMI as both input and output price balances drop.
- Firms are confident to hire again; the MPC will be wary of employment growth in a tight labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to agree in September that QT will continue at a £100B-a-year pace from October.
- The BoE has welcomed increased use of its short-term repo facility as part of a strategic shift…
- ...to a demand-driven reserves system, while small changes to active QT would be fine-tuning.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
REBOUNDING GROWTH AND SLOWLY EASING WAGES
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN NOVEMBER AND THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Spending is already overshooting Budget forecasts, government borrowing will exceed the Budget forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The ONS Blue Book revisions raised the level of GDP in Q4 2022 by 0.8%.
- Statistician’s will publish full revisions up to the latest data in Q2 2024 on September 30.
- Revisions to growth two years ago will have little effect on monetary or fiscal policy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC has shifted its focus away from inflation and wages to broader economic scenarios.
- Even rate-setters voting for an August cut placed considerable weight on the more hawkish scenario.
- Reduced data-sensitivity and the scenarios suggest gradual rate cuts, with the next one in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales volumes gained 0.5% month-to-month in July but were depressed by a large seasonal factor.
- We estimate that retail sales volumes are trending up at a 2.5% month-to-month annualised pace.
- Surveys and consumer confidence signal improving retail sales, while rate cuts will give a boost.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
