Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In Q1, the Winter Olympics and fiscal support soften the hit to Italian consumption from the energy shock.
- EU recovery funds will help support Italian GDP growth this year as domestic demand slows.
- We lower our forecast for EZ GDP growth in Q1 and Q2, by 0.1pp in each quarter, to 0.2%.
In one line: Industrial production likely fell over Q1.
In one line: Lifted by soaring energy inflation, but the core and food will rise too in due course.
- Data out to February show that Spain’s growth streak was faltering even before the energy shock.
- Industrial production, retail sales and construction all likely declined over Q1.
- But record-high employment and fiscal support likely kept growth from grinding to a halt last quarter.
In one line: Spanish industry was performing poorly even before the energy shock.
In one line: Industrial production fell in Q1, but net trade in goods rose sharply.
In one line: Decline will be exacerbated over the coming months.
- German manufacturing fell in Q1, but survey data point to a robust end to the quarter and Q2 strength.
- Net trade in goods surged in Q1, but we suspect the boost was partially offset by a fall in inventories.
- Our nowcast models for Germany point to big upside risk to Q1 growth, but take them with a pinch of salt.
In one line: New orders stung by surge in input prices.
In one line: Strong gain in core orders.
- US-Iran ceasefire takes the sting out of rising EZ rate expectations, but tightening remains our base case.
- Core orders in German manufacturing rose solidly in February, and surveys point to further upside.
- Retail sales in the Eurozone all but stalled in Q1, and the outlook for Q2 is poor too.
In one line: Downside risks are widening for Q2.
- France is set to swing right in the 2027 presidential election, but that’s not strictly good news for RN.
- Big declines in energy consumption and output due to mild weather likely stung French growth in Q1.
- French tax revenues ended 2025 on a high, bringing much relief to the embattled minority government.
- Higher energy prices in March more than offset the disinflationary impact of the strong Swiss franc.
- But a decline in domestic inflation kept the headline rate from rising as much as the consensus expected.
- Headline inflation will rise further this year, as domestic price pressures are building.
In one line: Energy shock gives the SNB room to breathe as inflation is set to accelerate further.
- Higher energy prices in March more than offset the disinflationary impact of the strong Swiss franc....
- ....and likely pushed the headline inflation rate in Switzerland to 0.6%, from 0.1% in February.
- A surge in price-setting expectations suggests inflation will pick up quickly over the coming months.
In one line: The stagflation shock is underway.
In one line: Stable, but renewed risks now loom.
In one line: Risks tilted to upside for EZ inflation; spending stung by weakness in both core and energy.
In one line: Slowing before the energy shock.
