- Political uncertainty weighed on business sentiment in France in December…
- ...Politically-driven sentiment moves don’t usually translate into hard data, but growth will still slow.
- Services trade figures in the EZ current account point to downside risk to our EZ net trade call in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November, to 2.2%—rather than 2.3%—from 2.0%.
- It will increase further in December, and risks to our call for a 2.5% print are to the upside.
- The headline will fall in early 2025, allowing the ECB to cut rates further, less than markets expect though.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction escaped recession in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November; another rise this month is likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The IFO BCI sank in December, pointing to downside risk to our call for German GDP to stagnate in Q4.
- Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, perked up, in line with rising equities.
- EZ trade took a hit in October; front-loading ahead of higher tariffs will prevent a Q4 drag from net trade.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German investor sentiment recovers; EZ goods trade takes a hit in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sinking to its lowest since May 2020, and the first Covid lockdowns.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMIs in December were still a dovish signal for ECB policymakers…
- ...and the ECB President made it clear further easing was on the way in her speech in Lithuania…
- ...But she failed in her promise to clarify the Bank’s level of restrictiveness.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Growth will still slow, despite increase in PMI in December; rising price indices still point to downside risks for inflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still no sign of a pick up in new orders in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The recession in industry continued in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sinking; exports to the US likely stung by port strikes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Relief in the PMIs today? We hope so, but the overall message from the survey will remain negative.
- Germany’s exports slumped in October, likely due in part to port strikes in the US.
- EZ manufacturing should remain on the back foot in Q4, while France gets a new Prime Minister.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB eases by 25bp, with the SNB delivering a 50bp cut; bang in line with our expectations.
- Yesterday marks the start of a new regime for the ECB, but where is that neutral rate again?
- We think the SNB will ease again in March, by 25bp, which will be the final cut in this cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Dovish, but staying open on the path in 2025 and the level of the neutral rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: As expected; no longer need for a restrictive policy rate. Where is neutral?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Martin Schlegel comes out swinging with jumbo cut at his first meeting as SNB Chairman.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
