In one line: ECB hawks are about to eat humble pie.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German unemployment is rising, but employment growth is resilient.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downside risks to EZ inflation data.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A solid start to Q4; a sign of more to come?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation fell sharply in November, widening the gap between the reality and the ECB’s forecasts.
- January HICP is key for the 2024 inflation outlook; we look for a return to normal in m/m pricing.
- The ECB’s hawkish facade will soon crack; look out for a shift in messaging at the December meeting.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services confidence is holding up; employment expectations fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Better for consumers and manufacturing, but service confidence fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in Germany and Spain undershot consensus in November; will EZ HICP do the same?
- German inflation will snap back in December due to base effects in energy; the core is falling rapidly.
- Core inflation in Spain declined sharply in November, and the downturn has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE EZ ECONOMY IS SLIPPING INTO RECESSION...
- ...WHEN WILL THE ECB’S MESSAGE SHIFT?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Adjusted for savings money data suggest an improving outlook for H1 next year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid headline, but unemployment fears are rising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Depressed, despite an improving outlook for real income growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money supply is not falling as fast as it was earlier in the year, but it is still declining...
- ...Lending growth, meanwhile, is fading, which bodes ill for our call for a rebound in GDP in H1 2024.
- The package holiday CPI can be volatile in November; risks are tilted to the downside this week.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials suggest the EUR is currently undervalued against the USD...
- ...Political uncertainty measures suggest it is right where it should be, at 1.10...
- On balance, we think EURUSD will trade between 1.10 and 1.15 for most of 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still-rising, but will the fiscal impasse hit the December data?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with falling GDP in Q4, despite rising.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: French GDP is headed for a decline in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German GDP fell in Q3, and we look for a further decline in Q4, pushing the economy into recession.
- Real disposable income growth remains weak; we still think it will improve next year as inflation eases.
- The fiscal impasse will be resolved, eventually, but a near-term hit to growth is now likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
