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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, June 2024

In one line: Core is settled around 2%; headline should fall further from August onwards.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, June 2026

In one line: Falling, and survey data point to further declines ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, May

In one line: Decent, but not enough to prevent a Q2 decline. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor The curious case of the vanishing EZ monetary policy transmission

  • EZ private-sector balance sheets are healthy; this dulls the monetary policy transmission mechanism. 
  • The private sector’s interest-rate-sensitivity has almost halved compared to before the GFC. 
  • Strong private balance sheets, fiscal activism and labour-hoarding will keep ECB policy rates elevated. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters

  • Marine Le Pen’s RN fell flat on its face in the French parliamentary elections. The centre (left) holds on. 
  • The path to a working government in France is unclear, but OAT-Bund spreads have likely peaked. 
  • Germany’s trade surplus jumped in May, due mainly to a crash in imports; the July Sentix dropped. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, France, May 2024

In one line: A nasty plunge in manufacturing, but don’t forget rising services output.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Manufacturing still a drag in Q2; Q3 will be different, we hope

  • Friday’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain made for difficult reading.
  • The recovery in EZ manufacturing was still missing in Q2, but we look for better in H2.
  • The trend in retail sales remains flat, but they still likely picked up in Q2, and services spending rose.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Fall in Swiss inflation reaffirms our call for further SNB rate cuts

  • Swiss inflation edged lower, despite an uptick in services; a further, albeit marginal, fall is likely.
  • We look for two more SNB rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 0.75% by year-end; markets see fewer cuts.
  • The appointment of Martin Schlegel as the new SNB Chairman points to continuity in the rates outlook.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, June

In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation will hit 2% by August, oil prices permitting

  • Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on. 
  • Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now. 
  • Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will the Centre-Left vote unite to deny RN an absolute majority?

  • Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
  • Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
  • German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, June 2024

In one line: Soft, and further declines are likely over the summer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Advance Inflation in France & Spain, and French Consumers' Spending, June/May 2024

In one line: EZ headline and core inflation still on track for marginal declines in June.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Headline and core inflation in the Eurozone likely dipped in June

  • Inflation in the EZ likely fell in June, by 0.1pp to 2.5%; all set for a dovish message from Sintra this week.
  • Forecast upgrades in Spain and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2.
  • German unemployment hit a new post-Covid high in June and likely will rise a bit further in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, June 2024

In one line: M1 growth is rebounding, and the credit cycle is stabilising.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,