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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, January 2025

In one line: Soft in CPI, but the core HICP is sticky, and selling prices are rebounding.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our models suggest Bunds are fairly priced at 2.4-to-2.5%

  • Bunds have hovered close to fair value since the beginning of the year, according to our models. 
  • US Treasuries and Schatz point to upside risks to Bund yields, but fundamentals pull the other way. 
  • Near-term risks to Bund yields are tilted to the downside, before bear-steepening in H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium

  • US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have only a minimal direct impact on EZ exports and GDP… 
  • …But the constant threat of tariffs is raising uncertainty for firms, adding to downside risks for capex. 
  • The CDU/CSU remains in pole position in Germany, but it is ceding ground to the AFD.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Output stung by falling auto production; exports finish 2024 on a strong note.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB policymakers will struggle to stay neutral on neutral

  • Attempts by the ECB to persuade markets to give up focusing on the neutral rate are laudable, but futile.
  • The ECB’s own forecasts suggest that the policy rate should stabilise at neutral, wherever that is.
  • EZ industrial production fell sharply in December, but we look for a solid rebound in January.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Signs of underlying strength, despite boost from major orders.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor News of a crash in 2025 EZ wage growth is greatly exaggerated

  • Bonds rallied yesterday on dovish headlines in the ECB’s wage tracker, but the details beg to differ. 
  • The EU is ready to strike back at US tariffs, but we still see a low risk of a prolonged tariff spat. 
  • ‘Habemus budget’ in France; industrial output fell in December, but it will rebound in January. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor A 10pp hike in US tariffs on EU imports priced in by EURUSD

  • President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air. 
  • A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3. 
  • EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment & State CPIs, Germany, January 2025

In one line: Unemployment is still rising; soft state CPIs can’t be extrapolated to the HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, December 2024

In one line: A poor finish to 2024, but probably not as bad as initially reported.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Risks tilted slightly to the downside for EZ headline inflation today

  • We now see EZ headline inflation unchanged at 2.4% in January, with a 0.1pp dip in the core, to 2.6%.
  • Selling price expectations are rising in Germany and France, but core inflation will dip further in Q1.
  • Is the consumption recovery in the Eurozone finally kicking in? We think so.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q4 2024; Unemployment, EZ, December 2024; ESI, EZ, January 2025

In one line: GDP growth slowed at end-2024 despite continued strength in the labour market. ESI points to better times ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q4-24

In one line: A drop, as expected, but the details point to robust domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor The ECB can't dodge questions on the neutral rate for much longer

  • The ECB eased policy further, as expected, but it is now likely closer to neutral than markets think. 
  • EZ GDP stagnated in Q4, held back by declines in the two largest economies, Germany and France. 
  • The first national inflation figures for January lead us to raise our call for EZ core inflation, due out today.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, December 2024

In one line: Ignore headline fall; M1 growth is still accelerating.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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