- The BTP-Bund spread has held broadly steady at around 100bp so far this year.
- We still see scope for further narrowing in 2025, to 70bp, implying BTPs trading inside OATs in France.
- Risks are broadly balanced, with German stimulus a downside and further trade uncertainty an upside.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ compensation per employee growth slowed in Q1, in line with easing negotiated wage growth.
- Other measures out in the coming days are likely to also show slower wage growth in Q1.
- We suspect wage growth will now plateau in the 2.5%-to-3.0% range, remaining historically high.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Fastest growth in eleven quarters thanks to tariff-front-running-led jump in Irish GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A drop in EZ headline inflation to 2.0% in May should be enough to pull a 25bp ECB rate cut over the line.
- The ECB’s 2026 HICP forecasts likely will determine whether doves get rates cut to 1.75% over summer.
- German retail sales fell in April, but the upturn in EZ real M1 growth accelerated further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP was propelled higher in Q1 on the back of an upwardly revised Irish GDP figure...
- ...This was, in turn, down to tariff front-running practices, which will almost surely reverse in Q2.
- We are cutting our forecast for EZ Q2 GDP, but the strength in Q1 means our 2025 call is still up a tad.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: PMI still paints a picture of underlying weakness in construction.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Surprisingly strong, but the details are volatile.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0%, as expected, but Ms. Lagarde signalled this is it.
- We still see a final 25bp cut, to 1.75%—now in September—but we’re less certain than before.
- The ECB’s new forecasts are very dovish on inflation and likely will have to be revised up in due course.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A rough start to Q2; little sign of tariff front running supporting industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ sovereigns have been largely spared in the global bond-market rout, but French bonds remain fragile.
- Foreigners own more than half of government bonds in France, with Japanese savings a key swing factor.
- We think Japan owns around €165B-worth of French government bonds, or 5% of French GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Below zero; brace for a 50bp cut from the SNB.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in both the EZ and Switzerland fell below the respective central-bank targets in May.
- In the EZ, the decline solidifies the need for a rate cut this month, and we look for another one in Q3.
- In Switzerland, deflation is likely to become a mainstay, so brace for a 50bp rate cut from the SNB.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The 0.3% increase in Italian GDP in Q1 was driven by both domestic demand and net trade.
- In Switzerland, it was just domestic demand that pushed GDP up by a whopping 0.8% on the quarter.
- Growth is now slowing in both economies, though risks to our H2 calls are likely to the upside.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Switzerland was on a tear before the tariff shock; surveys point to slower growth in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Upturn in money supply continues; Italian GDP on a solid footing in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Strong, but remember difference in base effects in the CPI and HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consumption growth will slow in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
