Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.
- India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
- …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
- We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively.
- In one line: A forgetful Q2, overall.
- In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.
- Malaysia’s retail sales are still weak; sales volumes registered no month-to-month increase in May.
- Real wage growth has been stagnant since the pandemic, weighing on disposable incomes.
- Q2 GDP will get no lift from consumption, but the recent rate cut could help Q3
- In one line: Modest, on-and-off deflation looks set to be the theme for H2.
- Front-loaded exports from EM Asia will start to correct in H2, even if US “reciprocal” tariffs soften.
- A few economies are much less exposed, though; we note a couple of sector-specific upside risks.
- Longer term, we maintain that EM Asia exports will have a brighter future, supporting their markets.
Indonesian sales remain tepid, at best… stimulus ‘pop’ looking small
- The BNM made its first rate cut in five years, reducing the overnight policy rate to 2.75% from 3.00%.
- The Bank is clearly prioritising weak consumption and exports above the risk of re-sparking inflation.
- Indonesian retail sales remain subpar in spite of the May bounce; no early signs of a stimulus boost.
Philippine sales are now effectively flat-lining
- Another month of exports above 30% in Taiwan, as they fail to moderate despite our expectation.
- This will be good news for Q2 GDP year-over-year, which is highly correlated with exports.
- Food and housing costs are finally down consistently, helping to keep inflation below 2%.
- GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1, comfortably outstripping all forecasts…
- …But brisk export front-loading to the US will unwind shortly, especially with a ‘deal’ now in place.
- We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 6.9%, implying an H2 slowdown to an average of 6.4%.
A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards
Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range
- Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
- …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
- Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.
Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
- Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
- Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
- In one line: Headline absurdity continues.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
- …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
- Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.
