Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Hit by a descent into outright food deflation.
- BNM left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as it remains confident despite US tariffs...
- ...The Bank has seen strong orders for electronics and expects domestic demand to stay robust.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts for Thailand to just -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
A more confident uptick in ASEAN manufacturing, with tariff clouds receding
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI rose more comfortably above 50 in August, to 51.0…
- …Consolidation above 50 is looking likely, with short-term leading indicators recovering in tandem.
- But downside risks prevail over the long run; for now, we’ve yet to see firms cut prices to fight tariffs.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
- …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
- Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.
Still-robust export growth is driving Indonesia’s trade surplus to its highest in years
Surprisingly soft CPI numbers all around for August
- India’s ‘strong’ Q2 GDP, at 7.8%, was in large part down to a big, positive swing from discrepancies.
- The data for Q3 so far point to another 7.0% print, at least; we now see full-year GDP growth at this pace.
- We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast markedly, to 6.0%, taking into account the likely US tariff hit.
- In one line: Flattered hugely by discrepancies, but some reassuring details nonetheless.
- In one line: Ignore the June bounce; consumption is still very much slowing.
Very mixed start to Philippine two-way trade at the start of Q3
- In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.
- In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.
BI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THE ‘STRONG’ Q2 GDP
- …TAIWAN’S EXPORT OUTPERFORMANCE HAS STAYING POWER
- The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
- …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
- We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
- Taiwan is experiencing a boom in demand for its electronics, namely semiconductors and AI servers.
- These are key components in the large data centres being built by Big Tech firms in the AI arms race.
- Taiwanese exports are likely to stay strong if Big Tech continues with its capex plans.
India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat
- In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
- In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.
