Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

  • In one line: Still sticking to our call for Q4 easing, but a September move can’t be ruled out.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

  • In one line: Still believe that cuts are just around the corner.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian exports in H2 to benefit from stronger electronics growth

  • Both export and import growth in Malaysia beat consensus by a large margin in July…
  • …But the stronger surge in import growth resulted in the trade surplus more than halving.
  • Smaller trade surpluses are likely to be typical in H2, but a pick-up in real activity should support GDP.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Untenable export bounce saves Thailand's Q2; demand still weak

  • Thailand’s economy lost momentum in Q2, despite a hefty—but unsustainable—bounce in exports…
  • …External demand looks set to stay lacklustre into 2025, weighing further on already-weak capex.
  • We remain downbeat on growth, and still see the BoT cutting rates twice before year-end.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade Balance, Malaysia, July

  • In one line: Surplus more than halves, but little reason for concern.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 19 August 2024

Unsustainable export bounce saves Thai Q2 GDP; domestic demand still lethargic

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Exports are likely to benefit Singaporean manufacturing in Q3

  • Growth in Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports surprised to the upside in July.
  • It was supported by a pickup in electronics exports, friendly base effects and non-monetary gold.
  • Reversal in August is likely but the overall trajector y for exports will probably stay positive in Q3.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 August 2024

The BSP pulls the trigger… more—and potentially larger—cuts to come in Q4
Indonesia’s small trade surplus isn’t actually that bad, while the stellar y/y rates need to be put into context

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Starting gun fired; the BSP likely to step up cuts to 50bp each

  • The BSP started easing policy yesterday; we now expect much larger 50bp cuts from December.
  • The ousting of Thai PM Srettha will weigh further on the capex recovery and silence some MPC hawks.
  • Indonesia’s July trade data were very mixed; don’t read much into the upside and downside surprises.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor July CPI doesn't say October RBI cut, but watch veg prices and GDP

  • The July collapse in inflation in India below the key 4.0% mark, alone, won’t matter to RBI policy.
  • A tepid bounce in August, however, with vegetable prices now correcting, would support calls for a cut.
  • We also think that this month’s Q2 GDP will disappoint heavily; our final forecast is 6.0%

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 August 2024

Underlying sales momentum in Indonesia was fading heading into Q3

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian retail sales are at risk of flat-lining again; eyes on Q3

  • The fledgling recovery in Indonesian sales growth masked a persistent loss of momentum in Q2.
  • Slowing real wage growth is likely to put pressure on Malaysian retail sales until the end of the year.
  • Taiwan’s electronics exports continue to recover, despite the sharp drop in export growth in July.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Ignore the hype, consumption in the Philippines is in recession

  • Base effects were behind the Philippines’ consensus-matching Q2 GDP print, nothing more.
  • Consumption is now in a shallow recession, while the post-Covid catch-up in capex is still struggling.
  • We have raised our forecasts, but still see GDP growth slowing to 5.4% this year and 5.2% in 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 August 2024

Ignore the consensus-matching Q2 y/y print, Philippine consumption is in recession
The RBI keeps up the inflation-fighting talk
Malaysian fuel sales take a hit from subsidy removal

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 August 2024

Thai inflation will return to the target range in the next few months
Sales volumes in the Philippines suffer a second straight q/q drop

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Above-1% Thai CPI is coming, but subdued core is here to stay

  • Thai CPI surprised marginally to the upside in July, with headline rate rising to 0.8% and core to 0.5%.
  • The mean-reversion up in food prices should see inflation return temporarily to target-range until Q1.
  • Core inflation is likely to remain under 1%, though; the weak economy will keep this gauge anchored.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, July

  • In one line: Imported inflation puts pressure on commodity inflation.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 August 2024

First BSP rate cut delayed to October
The net trade story will be painful for the Philippines' upcoming Q2 GDP report

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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