The H2 recovery in Philippine sales is stagnating, at best
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM opted to hold rates at its March meeting, as inflation remains benign and growth intact.
- It signalled that the MYR is undervalued, but we expect it not to turn to interest rates to address this.
- The slump in Philippine sales is nearly a year old, underscoring the weakness of household budgets.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Seasonal effects aside, Singaporean consumer demand remains healthy
Outright deflation in Thailand should be over in a few months
The favourable January food price drag in the Philippines is unwinding partially
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Consumer demand in Singapore remains healthy, despite the Lunar New Year hit to Jan. retail sales.
- The rebound in Philippine food inflation won’t last, but it pushes back the likely first rate cut to June.
- Deflation in Thailand has finally turned a corner; expect to see a muted return to the black in Q2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI hit a six-month high in February, but underlying demand remains poor.
- Price pressures are building at the margins again, though the year-over-year story is still deflationary.
- Vietnam’s impressive export recovery is on track, despite a Tet-induced growth crash in February.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Thank the labour market for the six-month high in ASEAN’s PMI
Non-core factors lead a February bounce in Indonesian inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect Taiwanese GDP growth to recover this year to 3.4%, after declining to 1.4% in 2023…
- … As the recovery in external demand and tech cycle upswing paper over weaker local demand.
- The CBC is likely to be on hold for all of 2024, even though inflation will probably average less than 2%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: We repeat; forget the discrepancy-inflated headline, India’s main engine is still stuttering.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Feel free to continue ignoring the rosy headline.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Don’t worry about the Tet noise, Vietnam's export recovery remains on track
Reported sales growth continues to tell only a small part of the—weak underlying—story
Noticeable seasonal demand for food and adverse base effects push inflation up to 4%
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q4 GDP surprised massively to the upside, with growth rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3...
- ...But statistical discrepancies continue to inflate the headline, hiding the sluggishness in consumption.
- The drag from net trade eased too, but this was all down to an unwelcome quarterly plunge in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
CHICKENS COME HOME TO ROOST IN THAILAND
- ...FAREWELL TO AUTOMATIC FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IN INDIA
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect a sharper slowdown in Q4 Indian GDP growth than consensus, to 5.6% from 7.6% in Q3...
- ...The main blow will likely come from capex hitting a wall, while the discrepancies lift should fade further.
- Lunar New Year noise played a lot of tricks on Thai trade data for January; read this for the real story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Singaporean inflation is likely to pick up in February but overall disinflationary path is intact
Malaysian core inflation continues to moderate in Janaury
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The sharp drop in Singaporean inflation, to 2.9% from 3.7%, comes as no surprise to us…
- … As a combination of friendly base effects, lower COE prices and rebates drags on the headline.
- Malaysian core disinflation is likely to continue as lab our-market tightness unwinds.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re firmly with the consensus today, expecting Bank Indonesia to hold the BI rate at 6.00%.
- We continue to believe the first cut will come in Q2; the consensus is too pessimistic on inflation.
- BI is banking partly on construction to lift GDP growth in 2024, but the underlying trends are weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s Q4 GDP report was poor, with growth inching up to 1.7%, from 1.4% in Q3.
- Net trade dealt a big blow to quarterly growth; the low-hanging fruit from the tourism recovery is over.
- Consumption ground to a halt, moving closer to the monthly data, which have been poor for some time.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Import bounce hits Thailand's Q4 hard, but this is no reflection of healthy domestic demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Still waiting on Indonesian retail sales to show any real signs of life
Singaporean export growth leaps in Janaury, but any celebration would be premature
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth surged in January, but this just sets the stage for a correction in February.
- Indonesian retail sales showed no real pulse in 2023, and negative growth is a real threat for H1.
- The BSP remained on hold last week, but rapidly falling inflation has led to a notable change in tone.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
