- In one line: Anticipated hike to electricity tariffs spooks the CBC into a surprise hike.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India's manufacturing PMI jumps to a 17-year high, but so what?
The rebuild of inflationary pressures in services is becoming harder to ignore
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In an unexpected move, the Taiwanese central bank raised its discount rate to 2.000% yesterday…
- …Its main worry appears to be the impending rise in electricity tariffs, likely to come in April.
- The improving economic outlook has given the CBC space, but this hike is likely 'one -and- done'.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still waiting for the first of a couple green lights.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate unchanged at 6.00% yesterday, as universally expected.
- Its ongoing insistence on the need to safeguard the IDR is unwarranted; the carry trade has long turned.
- The Board’s thinking on GDP is becoming more muddled; expect to see the first 25bp cut in June.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Malaysian export growth slumps in February on seasonal effects
Singapore's February exports hide continued recovery in electronics
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean exports fell into the red in February; blame Lunar New Year seasonal distortions...
- ...Export growth will likely resume its recovery path, albeit at a more gradual pace for most of H1.
- Malaysian export growth slowed in February, dragged down by a sharp drop in re-exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A one-off, or is the lumpy slide in non-oil imports finally over?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The early 2024 misery in Indonesian exports continues
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian exports disappointed greatly in February, with demand from China faltering again.
- The trade surplus has plunged to a four-year low; consensus for the 2024 current account is too rosy.
- We see Vietnam’s Q1 GDP print falling well short ofexpectations, at 5.4%, down from 6.7% in Q4.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian retail sales growth remains well below average, despite the January bounce
Upstream core inflation in India is still MIA; great
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth bounced merely to 1.1% in January, remaining well below par…
- …The passenger-car sales data are even more abysmal, amid a steady deterioration in confidence.
- We reckon Malaysian retail sales growth bottomed out in January and will likely rise from February.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food inflation in India looks set to remain sticky until mid-year, amid the collapse in farm output growth...
- ...Forcing us to raise our 2024 CPI forecast to 4.6%, and push back the likely first rate cut to August.
- The slowdown in industry is becoming increasingly broad-based and will soon hit GDP growth hard.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Delaying our first RBI rate cut call to August; industry is floundering, forget the H2 2023 ’strength’ in GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A decent, if quiet, start to the year for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate jumped in Q1, to 4.5%; a smaller labour force is partly to blame.
- Weakness is surfacing, and another minimum wage hike will make matters worse outside the capital.
- The regional reserves rebuild is far from complete; Vietnam's and the Philippines’ lag is the main worry.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Seasonal effects aside, the export growth outlook remains positive.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth tanked in February on the Lunar New Year lull and weak Chinese demand...
- …While ASEAN’s status as an export destination improved, benefiting from firms’ China+1 strategy.
- Existing labour-market tightness should make further services disinflation a lengthy process.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Seasonal impact from the Lunar New Year results in a jump to services inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Ringgit weakness worries BNM, but its opting for non-rate measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
