Don’t worry about the Tet noise, Vietnam's export recovery remains on track
Reported sales growth continues to tell only a small part of the—weak underlying—story
Noticeable seasonal demand for food and adverse base effects push inflation up to 4%
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q4 GDP surprised massively to the upside, with growth rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3...
- ...But statistical discrepancies continue to inflate the headline, hiding the sluggishness in consumption.
- The drag from net trade eased too, but this was all down to an unwelcome quarterly plunge in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
CHICKENS COME HOME TO ROOST IN THAILAND
- ...FAREWELL TO AUTOMATIC FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IN INDIA
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect a sharper slowdown in Q4 Indian GDP growth than consensus, to 5.6% from 7.6% in Q3...
- ...The main blow will likely come from capex hitting a wall, while the discrepancies lift should fade further.
- Lunar New Year noise played a lot of tricks on Thai trade data for January; read this for the real story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re firmly with the consensus today, expecting Bank Indonesia to hold the BI rate at 6.00%.
- We continue to believe the first cut will come in Q2; the consensus is too pessimistic on inflation.
- BI is banking partly on construction to lift GDP growth in 2024, but the underlying trends are weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s Q4 GDP report was poor, with growth inching up to 1.7%, from 1.4% in Q3.
- Net trade dealt a big blow to quarterly growth; the low-hanging fruit from the tourism recovery is over.
- Consumption ground to a halt, moving closer to the monthly data, which have been poor for some time.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Import bounce hits Thailand's Q4 hard, but this is no reflection of healthy domestic demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Still waiting on Indonesian retail sales to show any real signs of life
Singaporean export growth leaps in Janaury, but any celebration would be premature
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth surged in January, but this just sets the stage for a correction in February.
- Indonesian retail sales showed no real pulse in 2023, and negative growth is a real threat for H1.
- The BSP remained on hold last week, but rapidly falling inflation has led to a notable change in tone.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Lumpy non-oil imports continue to sag.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: It won’t be long before cuts enter the fray.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Prabowo Subianto looks to have won by a landslide in Indonesia, removing the need for a run-off.
- The trade surplus fell sharply in January; its support for the rupiah will be a lot less robust in 2024.
- The recovery in export growth is stumbling, with commodities lifeless and China still weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The easing in upstream core deflation has come to a halt.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian IP stuttered at the end of last year, implying no repeat in Q4 GDP of manufacturing’s heroics.
- The RAI’s retail sales data remain weak, pointing to a continuation of below-par consumption growth.
- We’ll be raising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to about 5.5%, still well below the 6%-plus consensus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’ve raised our 2024 average CPI forecast in India to 4.2%, in the wake of January’s upside surprise.
- Crucially, the core rate is still falling, showing the headline the way down, as food inflation wanes...
- ...We see no clash between falling core and ‘brisk’ GDP; RBI surveys back our suspicion of the latter.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still waiting on the onion price correction to show in CPI; the trend in IP growth is clearly one of moderation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean retail sales growth appears healthier than it actually is, due to the higher COE quota.
- Slowing wage growth in Malaysia will likely take its toll on consumer spending in late H1.
- The nascent turnaround in Philippine demand is just about intact, thanks to a resilient job market.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Cracks are emerging in the RBI’s unity
Discretionary spending over the holidays boosts Malaysian sales growth in December
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI’s MPC voted 5-to-1 to keep the repo rate at 6.50%, but Mr. Varma’s dissent is no real surprise.
- We still expect a Q2 cut; Q4 GDP likely will fall short of the MPC’s forecast and 4% inflation is imminent.
- The BoT stood pat on Wednesday, as expected, but telegraphed a big cut to its 2024 growth forecast.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
