Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Philippine sales are now effectively flat-lining
- Another month of exports above 30% in Taiwan, as they fail to moderate despite our expectation.
- This will be good news for Q2 GDP year-over-year, which is highly correlated with exports.
- Food and housing costs are finally down consistently, helping to keep inflation below 2%.
- GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1, comfortably outstripping all forecasts…
- …But brisk export front-loading to the US will unwind shortly, especially with a ‘deal’ now in place.
- We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 6.9%, implying an H2 slowdown to an average of 6.4%.
A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards
Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range
- Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
- …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
- Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.
Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
- Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
- Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
- In one line: Headline absurdity continues.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
- …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
- Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.
