Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Indonesian CPI returned to the black in March, as the power discounts expired; food will soon U-turn.
- The Philippines’ sales index continues to surge, but a number of consumer sectors are still struggling.
- Food inflation in Taiwan continues to rise, though some of this is exaggerated by base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Seasonally adjusting Vietnam’s quirky GDP data shows that growth improved further in Q1, to 7.3%…
- …But a sharp fall by year-end to sub-5%—at least— looks inevitable, as US tariffs hit exports and capex.
- Outright deflation in Thailand seems set to take hold, again, bolstering our call for an April BoT cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A brief spell of policy-induced deflation is around the corner in Thailand
Very soft, but March should be the low for Philippine inflation this year
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have led to cuts of 0.1-to-0.7pp to several of our 2025 GDP forecasts…
- …Vietnam’s outperformance has shrunk materially; India won’t enjoy as much of an import-drop offset.
- We now see the SBV restarting cuts to the tune of 50bp, and have added a fourth cut to our RBI view.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The nascent improvement in ASEAN manufacturing is far from comprehensive
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMIs for India and ASEAN have regained momentum recently; Taiwan is wobbling…
- …But the pick-up within ASEAN is skewed; expect domestic demand’s outperformance to continue.
- Regional export volumes are hovering above trend, implying they could stomach a big hit from tariffs.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Core production growth in India fell to a five-month low in February, due partly to residual seasonality.
- The plunge in refined petroleum products output growth is real though, with more softness likely.
- The bright spots—steel and cement—should soon feel the pinch of a waning public infra drive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blame mainly an unsurprising reversal of the January jump in petroleum products.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Thailand sank to -1% in January, but volatile ‘other’ sales are to blame.
- The nascent post-stimulus recovery in confidence is wobbling, and could be hit further by the quake…
- …Fundamentally, though, labour productivity is improving, boding well for future wage growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
