The H2 recovery in Philippine sales lost a lot of upward momentum in Q4
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine inflation is now firmly within the BSP's 2-to-4% target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine inflation is now below the mid-point of the BSP’s target range, bolstering our Q2 cut call.
- The Bank of Thailand will stand pat today, but the MPC’s pessimistic CPI views no longer hold water.
- We’re still waiting on the new weights for Indonesian CPI, but we continue to expect cuts to start in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth rebounded slightly to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.9% in Q3, in line with expectations...
- ...But the uptick owes a lot to inventories, which can’t be relied on, with external demand still fragile.
- Private domestic demand ended 2023 softly; we still expect annual growth to slip to 4.8% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Inventories hide a general slowdown in Indonesian private domestic demand in Q4
Jump in Singaporean vehicle sales in December was unable to offset weakness in other areas
The near-2% consensus for average Thai inflation this year is looking increasingly absurd
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India interim budget for 2024/25, presented last week, sees a smaller—5.1% of GDP—deficit…
- …But consolidation will no longer benefit from post-Covid catch-up growth and high inflation.
- Investment has be en a real priority in recent years, but the problem of underspend is creeping in.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An encouraging, but most likely temporary, bounce in ASEAN manufacturing
Yet another reassuring below-consensus drop in Indonesian core inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The run-up to 2024 was devoid of upward momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still-lofty growth remains very exposed to a further slowdown.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines cooled only modestly in Q4 to 5.6%, from 6.0% in Q3...
- ...Trade and government spending were big drags, offset inconsequentially by inventories and noise.
- Fixed investment was the only real bright spot, but this is also benefiting still from the Covid catch-up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
