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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EM Asia Datanote: November CPI & October IP, India

  • In one line: The worst of the recent food price surge is over; Diwali calendar effects flatter October IP massively.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 12 December 2023

Don’t worry too much about the October crash in Philippine exports

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 December 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Subdued Retail Sales Growth in Indonesia Faces a Tougher 2024

  • Indonesian retail sales grow th has made a steady recovery lately, but historically it remains sub-par…
  • … A return to the red in Q1 can’t be ruled out; catchup growth will weaken and confidence is fading.
  • Malaysian retail sales grow th drops to a 22-month low, as slowing real wage growth takes its toll.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 December 2023

Encouraging start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales, but dark clouds loom
Weak start to Malaysian private consumption in Q4

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 December 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Pushing Our Call for the First RBI Rate Cut to April

  • The RBI is still sounding cautiously hawkish, due to food inflation risk ; April is now the likely earliest cut .
  • In our view, its CPI forecasts are too pessimistic, while its outlook on growth is overly optimistic.
  • Beware, the number of unemployed workers in the Philippines has now risen for two straight quarters.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 December 2023

Deflation in Thailand will stay for at least one more month
A reminder that any recovery in Philippine domestic demand will be bumpy

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 December 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Deflation Should End Soon, but Inflation Will be Trivial in 2024

  • Thailand’s brief spell of CPI deflation should end in January, despite November’s downside surprise.
  • We still believe average inflation will fall sharply in 2024, even if power tariffs shoot up next month.
  • Sales growth in the Philippines kicked off Q4 poorly, but the nascent and fragile recovery remains intact.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 December 2023

India’s PMIs are entering 2024 with waning momentum
Weak start to Singaporean retail sales in Q4
Target range inflation in the Philippines is around the corner

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 December 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor India's PMIs Undeniably Rolling Over, GDP Growth to Follow Soon

  • India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
  • Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
  • Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 December 2023

Only a small respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November
The mean-reversion in Indian’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact
Adverse food price base effects in Indonesia will now unwind

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 December 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Manufacturing in ASEAN Limping into the New Year

  • The respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November won’t last long, with demand still deteriorating…
  • …Export-oriented countries continue to cause the most misery; supply-side issues are re-emerging.
    We no longer expect BI to start cutting this month, following the upside surprise in
  • November CPI.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Q3 GDP and October Core Production, India

  • In one line: Q3 was better than Q2, but the headline continues to be flattered absurdly by statistical discrepancies.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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