PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 March 2026

Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war

30 March 2026 Emerging Asia INR's 'record' fall in context; more a threat to Q2 growth than inflation

• The INR fell below the symbolic 94 level versus USD last week; the threat is to growth, not so much CPI.
• The BSP held at its off-cycle meeting last Thursday, while likely inadvertently setting a high bar for hikes.
• The global energy shock is hitting inflation harder in Thailand; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 0.9%.

March 2026 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

CPI FORECASTS UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN EM ASIA

• …BUT FROM LOW STARTING POINTS; ONLY SBV SET TO HIKE

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.

26 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Oil surge will pull Thailand's current account into modest deficit in 2026

• Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
• The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
• The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 March 2026

Iran war, unsurprisingly, hits India's PMIs immediately

25 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor War hitting Indian industry hard and fast; PMIs point to 6% GDP for Q1

• India’s PMIs have been softening for a while, but the Iran-war hit is notable, especially in manufacturing…
• …The complete PMIs for Q1 back our downbeat call for GDP of 6.1%; the long-term outlook is unfazed.
• Taiwanese retail sales—ex-vehicles—are better than they look; the war is unlikely to hurt tourist inflows.

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, February 2026

• In one line: Infrastructure sectors carrying more of the weight alone; overall momentum still solid.

23 March 2026 Emerging Asia BSP's April meeting 'live', but a hike for signal sake would be misguided

• Last week’s fuel-price gains in the Philippines and the firmer oil outlook will lead to 4%-plus inflation…
• … A hike is now on the table for April, but it would be rash, given the more forgiving backdrop this time.
• The start of modest fuel-price rises in Thailand will help lift the economy out of outright deflation.

19 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India should be able to stomach oil at $150 this year; main risk is 2027

• Oil at $150 should pose no urgent CPI risk to India; fiscally, it’s better placed to manage this shock…
• …Main threat would be higher imported inflation from late-2026, as the CA deficit would blow up.
• Indonesia could see an 11% rise in subsidised fuel prices this year—more than in 2022—with $150 oil.

18 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BI makes it clear, by omission, that its rate-cutting cycle is over

• Bank Indonesia held rates yesterday, as expected, and no longer pledged to find room for more cuts.
• We lower our estimate for India’s current account deficit this year to -3.0% of GDP, due to the oil crisis.
• Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for January- to-February point to 49.7% growth in electronics.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, February 2026

• In one line: Big short-term downside risks to the deficit due to the Iran war.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 March 2026

Iran war forcing an upgrade to our 2026 India WPI forecast to 5%

16 March 2026 Emerging Asia EA activity heap maps; major exporters still outperforming

• Introducing our regional activity heat maps, giving a snapshot of cyclical growth stage and momentum…
• …They show that major exporters continue to outperform domestic-oriented peers in early 2026.
• Indian inflation rose further in February on food prices; our 4.0% view for 2026 remains appropriate.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, February 2026

• In one line: Still mainly a food story, but Middle East pressures should surface in the March data.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 March 2026

A decent, if unimpressive, start to the year for Indonesian retail sales

11 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Oil price lands an instant punch in the Philippines and Vietnam

• The Philippines’ staggered fuel hikes won’t stop inflation from jumping above 3% this month…
• …Vietnam’s much larger adjustment bolsters our view that the SBV will hike rates at least once in H2.
• The modest pace of Indonesian retail sales growth is looking increasingly fragile once again.

10 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India and Indonesia will be backed into fuel hikes, but not yet rate hikes

• The spike and projected stickiness in oil prices due to the Middle East unrest is now material for Asia…
• …We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecasts for India and Indonesia to 4.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
• Taiwan’s exports moderated in February amid Lunar New Year noise, but now face serious energy risk.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 March 2026

Don’t stress about the February collapse in Vietnamese export growth
A disappointing Tet season for retail sales in Vietnam
Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast for Vietnam to 3.7%
Strong end-2025 momentum in Philippine sales carrying over to early-2025

9 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's disinflationary spell likely over, due to Middle East conflict

• Taiwanese CPI rose to 1.8% in February, but it’s just Lunar New Year noise; a bigger issue is at hand...
• … A likely increase in fuel prices will hit Q2 inflation, though we still expect no rate hike.
• Tet noise means that Vietnam’s ‘ weak’ February exports should be ignored; the hot CPI less so.