Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
RBI not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts
Already-low food inflation in the Philippines continues to backslide
- Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
- We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
- … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.
Food inflation returns to the black in Thailand
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
- More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
- India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.
- In one line: Made to look much worse by Diwali distortions.
- ASEAN’s PMI rose to a 38-month high in November, but a few of the drivers are questionable.
- Indonesian exports missed badly in October, but commodities should be more supportive next year.
- Food disinflation is back in Indonesia, dragging the headline rate below the consensus for November
ASEAN’s PMI strengthens to a 38-month high
Indonesian export growth finally comes back down to earth; 2027 should be a bit better
The turn in rising food inflation in Indonesia is here
- In one line: Not worth the paper it’s printed on.
- In one line: The theatre of the absurd is back.
Ignore the Philippines’ misleading y/y trade headlines
THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID
- TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME
- India finally implemented its new labour codes after five years of dithering, reviving reform momentum…
- …But the structural employment shift from farming will still be held back by huge agricultural support.
- On the surface, the strong and market-beating Q3 GDP is beyond absurd; tread very carefully.
Thailand's bigger-than-expected October deficit masks resurgent US exports
Shaping up to be a very anti-climatic Q4 for India
Malaysia’s recent inflation spike could be over
- India’s PMIs are still broadly losing steam heading into 2026, pointing to ‘just’ 6.4% Q4 GDP growth…
- …The future output indices in both PMIs are tanking, pouring cold water over a mid-2026 recovery.
- Malaysian inflation eased to 1.3% in October after months of rise s; we think food inflation will return.
- In one line: Poor; residual Diwali noise is only partly to blame.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
- BI stood pat yesterday, as widely expected; we see one final cut in December and RRR easing in 2026.
- Singaporean export growth leapt unexpectedly in October, but leading indicators remain very soft.
- Malaysian exports are finally benefiting from the AI boom, as they surged by 15.7% in October.
- Surging gold imports are only part of the historic blow-out in India’s trade deficit in October…
- …Real import demand looks to be rocketing too, though INR depreciation should keep this in check.
- Exports weren’t as weak as their headline plunge suggests, but non-US demand is now wobbling.
