Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Returning to earth, again; other, more credible data show a decent Q4.
- Indonesia’s soaring equities sold off sharply last week, threatened with a downgrade to ‘frontier’…
- …Fundamentally, the correction seems harsh, from the standpoint of improving ‘real’ economic activity.
- Thailand’s election at the end of this week still looks set to result in a fragile coalition government.
Anti-graft drive drags Philippine growth down to weakest in nearly 15 years
- In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.
Sagging Philippine imports—masked by base effects—is the real story
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP was grim, with growth plummeting to just 3.0%, from 3.9% in Q3…
- …We’ve yet to see signs of a bottom in investment-related indicators, while consumption remains soft.
- We’ve cut our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, from 5.0%.
EM ASIA EXPORTERS END 2025 WITH A GDP BANG
- …WE RAISE OUR 2026 INDIA CPI FORECAST TO OVER 4%
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- Thai customs exports easily beat expectations in December, with growth returning to double digits…
- …Soaring US demand is getting more help from the DM world, while shipments elsewhere are lagging.
- On balance, it looks like net trade will hit Q4 GDP hard, especially with imports bouncing strongly.
- In one line: Exports end 2025 with a bang; those to the US continue to defy gravity.
India showing no care to the US-led geopolitical noise
- India’s flash PMIs for January saw a big bounce in both headlines; no trend-change yet, though…
- …Their early Q1 signal points to sub-7.0% GDP growth, and we think it will fall more in Q2 and Q3.
- Our final call for Taiwan’s Q4 GDP print is 12.3%, much higher than the 8.4% consensus.
- In one line: Just about enough to salvage Q4.
- Bank Indonesia remained on hold yesterday, a position we expect to continue for all of 2026…
- …Worries over BI’s independence seem overblown; note its sovereign debt holding is no longer rising.
- Core IP in India firmed up more in December, but Q4 on the whole, and the details are uninspiring.
- In one line: Their latest slip aside, exports to the US are seeing some consolidation.
More confirmation that food price pressures are coming back in India
- Conservatives within Vietnam’s ruling party look to be reasserting themselves ahead of the Congress…
- …The big U-turn on the annual credit quota suggests to us that 2026 will see one rate hike.
- Thailand’s opposition PP looks poised to win in February, but acute political uncertainty will linger.
- Food deflation in India is receding quickly, pushing headline inflation up further, to 1.3% in December…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 average forecast to 4.1%, but underlying inflation remains very benign.
- Indonesian retail sales growth has hit a 20-month high, despite the big holes in discretionary goods.
Recovering sales growth in Indonesia hiding big holes under the surface
- Taiwan’s AI boom is losing momentum, with December seeing the first cooling in exports…
- …Export growth will continue to slow in 2026, due to high base effects, despite aggressive AI spending.
- Malaysian retail sales growth slid in December, but this probably won’t matter much for Q4 GDP.
