PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 May 2026

Indian manufacturing still struggling; pop in prices fading

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, April 2026

• In one line: Still losing momentum at the margin.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, May 2026

• In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.

21 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's huge, but explicitly pre-emptive, 50bp rate hike likely a one-off

• BI surprised almost everyone with a larger-than-expected 50bp rate hike, amid the IDR’s struggles…
• …This increase should be a one-off; pressure on the IDR will ease and the CPI target still looks secure.
• Malaysian export growth hit 37% in April, as the AI boom further boosted electronics exports.

19 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Thailand's consensus-beating Q1 GDP provides no real comfort

• GDP growth in Thailand rose unexpectedly in Q1, to 2.8%, but inventories hid a broad domestic easing…
• …We maintain our 2.2% growth forecast for 2026, implying a sustained slowdown to 1.0% by Q4.
• India’s scorching WPI print was no surprise to us, and we find much comfort in still-tepid WPI food.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 May 2026

Thai growth sees a natural payback from the interim government pop
Analysts were also too gloomy on Singapore exports 

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, April 2026

• In one line: Some reassuring developments, but take the y/y leaps with a pinch of salt.

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, April 2026

• In one line: Hot, thanks to the naturally delayed oil boost.

14 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Indian inflation now unlikely to breach 4%; watch food U-turn

• Headline inflation in India was much softer than expected in April, merely inching up to 3.5%...
• ...Low food-price base effects were the sole reason; our daily food tracker points to a big reversal in May.
• We’ve cut our 2026 average inflation forecast to 3.4%, even if diesel prices are raised by up to 8%.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, April 2026

• In one line: Food price pressures at the margin are collapsing.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 12 May 2026

Sales growth is souring in Indonesia, for a handful of reasons

13 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's household backdrop still healthy, but more cracks appearing

• Retail sales growth in Indonesia slowed in March, but Q1 overall was the best quarter in two years.
• The historically tight job market is finally reviving wage growth, but cracks are surfacing in the former.
• Income-used data continue to show rising caution, with the share for savings now above average.
  
  

11 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Is this the end of Taiwanese exports' invincible acceleration?

• Taiwan’s export growth finally moderated in April, to 39%; adverse base effects have kicked in…
• …Q2 will also be plague d by the supply-side constraints that are showing up in the PMIs.
• BNM held the OPR at 2.75%; the Bank has little reason to panic when core inflation remains benign.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2026

The main reason why the BSP should be reluctant to hike further

8 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' GDP going from bad to worse; we cut our 2026 call to 4%

• Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
• Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
• We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 May 2026

Iran war ’saves’ Thailand from prolonged deflation
Already signs of an inflation squeeze on Philippine sales

7 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN CPI hot in April, but now likely to cool

• April CPI releases from ASEAN have so far mostly surprised to the upside, barring Indonesia…
• …We’ve raised our 2026 calls for the Philippines and Vietnam to well over 5.0%, but the oil hit is fading.
• Indonesian authorities will now likely be compelled to raise subsidised fuel prices by 5%, at least.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 May 2026

Indonesia’s sturdy Q1 GDP is only skin-deep
ASEAN manufacturing continues to lose steam
Another BSP rate hike now seems likely, however misguided
Singapore's March retail sales doesn't look as good as it does under the surface

6 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Dubious leap in public spending behind Indonesia's Q1 GDP beat

• GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
• But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
• We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.

5 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Heat map check: war hitting India fast; big exporters mostly unfazed

• Our heat maps show only India is feeling the war’s pinch, highlighting its Middle East exposure…
• …By contrast, the main exporters are still going strong; no signs yet of the chip boom losing steam.
• The RBI’s surveys show Indian consumer sentiment is already wobbling even without fuel-price rises.