PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 November 2025

No slow-moving crash, but the honeymoon in Vietnamese exports is clearly over
Ignore the softest sales print in a year
Outright transport deflation will return

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 November 2025

Local private demand let the Indonesia economy down in Q3
The post-“Liberation Day” recovery in ASEAN manufacturing sentiment continues
Outright Thai deflation still has a number of months left
Softer food and firmer housing & utilities inflation in the Philippines offset each other

6 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The real stories behind another 5% GDP print for Indonesia in Q3

• GDP growth in Indonesia slipped minimally in Q3, to 5.0% from 5.1% in Q2, in line with our forecast…
• …The main cause of the dip was softer private local demand; the Q2 pop in equipment capex is fading.
• Private consumption is facing more headwinds, with real wage growth falling back into the red.

4 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's GST collection in October indicates no post-cut pop in activity

• India’s real GST collection growth in October was flat, at best, showing no post-cut pop in spending.
• Recovering Chinese demand is helping to keep Indonesian export growth lofty, but big risks linger.
• We have raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Indonesia to 3.1%, in light of the firm October reads.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 November 2025

A deceptively quiet end to Q3 for Indonesian trade
Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast to just over 3%

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, August 2025

• In one line: ‘Others’ component goes from friend to foe; underlying growth is showing more stability.

3 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's GDP growth still strong, but we think it's finally peaked

• Taiwan’s GDP growth for Q3 b eat expectations, though it moderated slightly to 7.6% from 8.0%.
• Demand for AI hardware remains solid, but supply-side factors give no indication of strong growth…
• …Still, the AI boom could also be accelerating productivity gains and capital- deepening.

27 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Tariff hit still the main story in India's PMIs; GST relief nowhere to be seen

• India’s flash PMIs for October were a mixed bag, but it’s clear that the mid-2025 re-acceleration is over.
• Short-term leading indicators are still softening post-50% tariff, while long-term are average at best.
• The partial Q4 read chimes with our view that the economy is in the midst of a steep GDP slowdown.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 October 2025

The 2025 upswing in India's PMIs has stalled

October 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

SURPRISE HOLDS FROM THE BOT AND BI WON’T LAST

• …A SERIES OF EARLY-Q3 GDP UPSIDE SHOCKS IN ASEAN

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, October 2025

• In one line: Another month, another surprise… this time for a pause, as the Board adopts wait-and-see.

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, September 2025

• In one line: A minor setback; positive momentum still rebuilding.

23 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A surprise hold, but BI isn't done; we still see a cut to 4.50% by year-end

• BI surprised again, but with a rate hold this time; we’re sticking to our end-2025 call of 4.50%.
• Malaysian inflation increased again, the third rise since the expansion of the sales and services tax.
• India’s full core IP data for Q3 show a solid bounce, but the GDP signal remains subdued.

20 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysia's Q3 GDP surprisingly rises, thanks to extractives

• Malaysia’s Q3 GDP growth shocked to the upside, powered by a rebound in mining and quarrying...
• ...But weak commodity exports suggest stockpiling or soaring domestic energy demand.
• Electrical and electronics exports are heating up, which could point to a rise in the Q4 GDP print.

17 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Fret more about India's plummeting US exports than its gold import leap

• The ballooning in India’s trade gap in September was due to gold imports, but beware US exports.
• Singapore’s Q3 GDP print surprised to the upside, at 2.9%, but the headline slowdown is far from over…
• …The MAS expects this to be the case too, implying the bar to fresh policy easing is still high.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, September 2025

• In one line: Blame yet another sudden spike in gold imports, though exports aren’t helping either.

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, September 2025

• In one line: Flirting with outright deflation, which looks likely in the next two reports.

15 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Sub-4.0% average annual inflation in India now on the cards for 2026

• India’s inflation gauges softened yet again in September, with food prices still largely sliding…
• …Housing inflation popped out of nowhere, but the fundamentals don’t support persistently big gains.
• We have cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts further, to 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, September 2025

• In one line: Food & beverage deflation is back, and will likely deepen this month.

13 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor AI boom continues to support Taiwan's exports, despite slight dip

• Export growth in Taiwan missed expectations, but it moderated only slightly and is still historically high.
• Strong quarter-to-quarter export growth points to a solid overall Q3 GDP growth print.
• Inflation is declining again, despite the recent typhoons, underpinned by falling crude oil prices.