- In one line: An abysmal start to Q2, but support from energy has been fading for a few months.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand slipped modestly in Q1, to 3.1% from 3.3%, with exports giving a big cushion…
- …But our global forecasts point to goods export growth slowing below 2% by Q4, from nearly 14%.
- This will increasingly expose headline GDP growth to the broad-based sluggishness domestically.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Pre-“Liberation Day” anxieties were there for all to see in Thailand’s Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Don’t panic about the continued ballooning of India’s trade deficit
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- VND underperformance could look bad amid ongoing US trade talks, but the SBV’s hands are tied.
- Talk of a ‘crisis’ in Thai tourism is overblown; yes, Q1 was grim, but other big markets are struggling too.
- Singapore export growth easily beat expectations in April, though underlying trends are softening.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A larger-than-expected Ramadan bump in Indonesian sales that isn’t expected to last
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s March retail sales report was flattered by Ramadan effects; beware the slide in confidence.
- Malaysian sales were also strong in March, at 6.6% year-over-year, suggesting strong Q1 consumption.
- Indian WPI inflation dropped to a 13-month low in April, thanks in large part to waning food pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian inflation dropped to a 69-month low in April; we now see a terminal rate of 5.25% for the RBI.
- Below-average food inflation looks set to stay, with this year’s monsoon season expected to be fruitful.
- Note that CPI has yet to benefit fully from the slump in global oil prices, implying huge downward risk.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports defied expectations, rising by 30% year-over-year in April; front-loading continues...
- ...It’s unclear when this will stop, but a surge in the value of the T WD is a new headwind.
- Inflation moderated to 2.0% in April, from 2.3% in March, but it’s still too soon to celebrate.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
Huge bounce in Philippine imports masks a broad-based Q1 improvement
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up in Q1, to 5.4%, but a big import bounce is to blame…
- …Activity broadly improved, especially government spending, though the Q1 bump should be a one-off.
- Consumption should improve this year due to low inflation, while capex still faces many headwinds.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An overdue—and big—m/m correction in Philippine sales to close Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI plunged to a new post-Covid low in the wake of “Liberation Day”…
- …But it looks like China’s struggles are more pressing, for now, and it’s best to wait for hard IP data.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 average inflation forecast for the Philippines to just 1.8%, from 2.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US looks to have hit a ceiling
A quiet start to Q2 for retail sales in Vietnam, following a robust Q1
Lots of moving parts, but April saw no change to Vietnamese inflation
Below-target-range inflation in the Philippines looks set to persist until year-end
This bout of Thai deflation should be short and shallow
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian growth fell to 4.9% in Q1, as base effects hit public spending and construction flat-lined…
- …Machinery capex should come under more pressure soon, with Chinese import demand cratering.
- We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, to 4.9% from 5.0%, and still see 100bp in BI cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian CPI came in above expectations in April, mainly reflecting the end of power discounts.
- The consensus for the Philippines’ Q1 GDP is well-positioned; we expect a similar-ish 5.8% print.
- The MAS is likely to ease policy further in July, but October could be more 50-50.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our bullish forecast for Taiwan’s GDP paid off for Q1, as growth jumped to 5.4% year-over-year.
- Exports surged 20%, driven by extreme front- loading ahead of tariffs set on “Liberation Day”.
- We expect this momentum to slow, as the front-loading inevitably fades in the months ahead.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
