Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
The AI tide is finally lifting Malaysian exports
- Surging gold imports are only part of the historic blow-out in India’s trade deficit in October…
- …Real import demand looks to be rocketing too, though INR depreciation should keep this in check.
- Exports weren’t as weak as their headline plunge suggests, but non-US demand is now wobbling.
- In one line: Gold imports are still surging, but real import demand has also gone up a gear.
- GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
- …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
- We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.
Destocking largely to blame for Thailand's Q3 GDP miss
Upstream price pressures in India remain soft on all fronts
- Vietnam has formally approved a 10% GDP growth target for 2026, which would be a record result…
- …Flying M2 growth means this is within reach, but it seems destined to correct sharply in the near term.
- Our final forecast for India’s Q3 GDP sees growth slowing markedly to 6.8%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- In one line: Headline is going nowhere for the rest of this year.
- CPI inflation in India fell to an historic low in October, at 0.3%, as food deflation deepened…
- …Our daily food-price tracker compels us to lower our 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 2.1% and 3.3%.
- The mean-reversion up in core inflation vanishes completely if we strip out the lift from gold prices.
Decent, if unspectacular, close to Q3 for Indonesian retail sales
Sales days and festivals boost Malaysian retail
- Indonesian retail sales remain soft, particularly discretionary items, with BI cuts yet to be felt at all…
- …Confidence revived suddenly in October on job hopes, but faster income growth remains far away.
- Numerous ‘sales’ days in Malaysia boosted retail in September; e-commerce is altering the landscape.
- Taiwan’s exports hit a record $61.8B in October, up 49.7% yearly, driven by surging AI and US demand.
- Investors are more uneasy as Big Tech firms ramp up AI-related capex, shifting to debt financing…
- …A correction in tech valuations could ensue, which would culminate in a fall in Taiwan’s exports.
- In one line: Export growth continues to shock to the upside.
The Philippines’ Q3 GDP was ugly all around
Still no light at the end of the tunnel in the sales data
- GDP growth in the Philippines collapsed to a post-pandemic low of 4.0% in Q3, as investment tanked…
- …More capex weakness is likely ahead, as we’ve yet to see the full impact of the ICI’s scrutiny.
- We’ve downgraded our 2025 and 2026 full-year GDP forecasts to just 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively.
- In one line: Probably the boost from the autumn moon festival.
- In one line: Resilience to US tariffs, give no reason to cut rates.
No slow-moving crash, but the honeymoon in Vietnamese exports is clearly over
Ignore the softest sales print in a year
Outright transport deflation will return
- Vietnamese exports disappointed in October, but the payback from US front-loading isn’t one-way.
- BNM held rates as the economy remains resilient to US tariffs; the new trade deal will enhance this.
- Taiwan’s inflation ticked up in October, probably lifted by mid-autumn festival spending.
