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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

2 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentals will help to buttress the IDR's stability in the short run

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
  • …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
  • Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 September 2025

Still-robust export growth is driving Indonesia’s trade surplus to its highest in years
Surprisingly soft CPI numbers all around for August

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's punchy Q2 GDP only skin-deep; H2 will be a tale of two halves

  • India’s ‘strong’ Q2 GDP, at 7.8%, was in large part down to a big, positive swing from discrepancies.
  • The data for Q3 so far point to another 7.0% print, at least; we now see full-year GDP growth at this pace.
  • We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast markedly, to 6.0%, taking into account the likely US tariff hit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q2

  • In one line: Flattered hugely by discrepancies, but some reassuring details nonetheless.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, June

  • In one line: Ignore the June bounce; consumption is still very much slowing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 August 2025

Very mixed start to Philippine two-way trade at the start of Q3

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, July

  • In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, August 2025

  • In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

August 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THE ‘STRONG’ Q2 GDP

  • …TAIWAN’S EXPORT OUTPERFORMANCE HAS STAYING POWER

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

29 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP hints strongly at end of cuts, but we're not in the "sweet spot" yet

  • The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
  • …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
  • We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai exports have just US front-running to thank for the July beat

  • Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
  • Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
  • Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Silicon Valley's capex spree spells good long-term news for Taiwan

  • Taiwan is experiencing a boom in demand for its electronics, namely semiconductors and AI servers.
  • These are key components in the large data centres being built by Big Tech firms in the AI arms race.
  • Taiwanese exports are likely to stay strong if Big Tech continues with its capex plans.

Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 August 2025

India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, July

  • In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Recovery in India's PMIs finally entering a meaningful stage

  • India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
  • …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
  • Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, August 2025

  • In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more

  • Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
  • …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
  • Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A fairly decent Q2, but Thai GDP growth will now slow more sharply

  • Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
  • …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
  • We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 August 2025

US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Demographics, demographics, demographics...still a big boon

  • EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
  • …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
  • We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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