Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Distorted by technicalities; real import demand remains healthy-ish.
- The August bounce in India's inflation should prove short-lived; high food base effects will return…
- …The upward mean-reversion in core CPI is starting to see more cracks and waning momentum.
- We have cut our full-year average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.3% and 4.2%, respectively.
- In one line: Caused mainly by more moderate primary articles deflation; still tepid, overall.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary headline bounce.
- Emerging Asian countries have announced national strategies to enter the semiconductor market.
- We think they will be unlikely to gain a meaningful foothold in manufacturing semiconductors.
- If they play to their strengths, however, they could attract capital to other parts of the supply chain.
A robust start to Q3 for Indonesian retail sales
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate in July jumped to its highest level in close to three years, at 5.3%…
- …Adverse weather rightly was to blame, but hiring intentions are now weakening more noticeably.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia popped in July, but the long-term outlook remains very challenging.
A quiet start to Q3, but Philippine sales are still sliding
- Indonesia’s finance minister is out, introducing uncertainty in an area of policy that’s been sound…
- …Fortunately for Mr. Purbaya, the worst of the slump in public revenue growth should be over.
- Taiwanese exports moderate, but not as sharply as expected, as the impact of the AI boom prevails.
- Vietnam’s August export figures confirm that the front-loading to the US is well and truly over.
- Our proxy GDP gauge is holding steady from Q2 at 6.8%; ‘official’ growth rate will probably be higher.
- The household sector is still on the mend, finding greater support from the job market.
Philippine inflation has finally bottomed out
- We’ve created our own GDP deflator for India; it suggests that growth collapsed in Q2, to just 5.8%…
- …The fiscal cost of ‘GST 2.0’ is small, so expect the same for its macro impact amid fiscal consolidation.
- Taiwanese inflation ticked up to 1.6% in August , from 1.5%, as typhoon Podul drove up food prices.
- In one line: Hit by a descent into outright food deflation.
- BNM left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as it remains confident despite US tariffs...
- ...The Bank has seen strong orders for electronics and expects domestic demand to stay robust.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts for Thailand to just -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
A more confident uptick in ASEAN manufacturing, with tariff clouds receding
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI rose more comfortably above 50 in August, to 51.0…
- …Consolidation above 50 is looking likely, with short-term leading indicators recovering in tandem.
- But downside risks prevail over the long run; for now, we’ve yet to see firms cut prices to fight tariffs.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
- …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
- Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.
Still-robust export growth is driving Indonesia’s trade surplus to its highest in years
Surprisingly soft CPI numbers all around for August
- India’s ‘strong’ Q2 GDP, at 7.8%, was in large part down to a big, positive swing from discrepancies.
- The data for Q3 so far point to another 7.0% print, at least; we now see full-year GDP growth at this pace.
- We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast markedly, to 6.0%, taking into account the likely US tariff hit.
- In one line: Flattered hugely by discrepancies, but some reassuring details nonetheless.
