EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, February

• In one line: Lunar New Year distortions.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 March 2026

Don’t stress about the February collapse in Vietnamese export growth
A disappointing Tet season for retail sales in Vietnam
Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast for Vietnam to 3.7%
Strong end-2025 momentum in Philippine sales carrying over to early-2025

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, January 2026

• In one line: Spending on big items is failing to recover.  

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Diesel fix still more than safe; shading our 2026 forecast.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Negara Malaysia Decision, March 2026

• In one line: Members hold rates, but seem spooked by the Middle East crisis. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 March 2026

Don’t read too much into the Lunar New Year noise in Singapore’s January sales
Returning food inflation drives Philippine inflation up higher; BSP target still safe

6 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BNM maintains rates but is holding its breath on the Middle East

• BNM held rates at 2.75%, as expected, but its statement carried an unusually cautious tone.
• Singapore’s January retail sales were weaker than expected, but highly distorted by Lunar New Year.
• We raise our 2026 CPI call for the Philippines and cut that on Thailand; the difference is fuel policy.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 March 2026

Rising domestic and external demand lifting most boats in ASEAN

4 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India--for now--can afford to shrug off the global oil-price surge to date

• We see no need yet to rethink our India CPI and rate calls, as fuel prices are already unnaturally high…
• …The clearer threat to CPI this year is the slowdown in agri growth; we see February inflation at 3.2%.
• The pre-Iran-war oil-price gains had barely any impact on industry in India and ASEAN.

EM Asia Datanote: IP, India, January 2026

• In one line: An understandable, and likely temporary, breather to start 2026.

3 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Boost to Indonesian exports from oil spike still small compared to 2022

• Indonesian exports fell well short of expectations in January, with the commodities lift still subdued…
• …But this should change in H2, with prices set to lift growth above 10%, helping to rebuild the surplus.
• The breach of BI’s CPI target range in February is skin-deep, but we’ve upped our 2026 call to 2.7%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 March 2026

No post-Ukraine-war like burst, yet, to expect from export growth
Underlying price pressures rising, but feel free to ignore the breach of BI’s range

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q4

• In one line: New series paints a more stable picture of recent years; ’statistical discrepancies’ no longer a bug-bear. 

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, December 2025

• In one line: Household momentum is rebuilding, but still nowhere near as fast as this absurd headline suggests.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 February 2026

Ignore the y/y misses; lots to be reassured about in the Philippine trade details

February 2026 Emerging Asia Chartbook

THAI BALLOT AND HOT Q4 GDP NO SILVER BULLET

• …INDIA’S 2026/27 BUDGET KICKS THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD

2 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India's new GDP more stable and carries greater credibility

• GDP growth in India cooled modestly to 7.8% in Q4, from 8.4% in Q3, based on the revamped series…
• …‘Statistical discrepancies’ are now much less of a headache; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 6.7%.
• The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling is a clear win for EM Asia; risks to export growth, in all, are receding.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, February 2026

• In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.

26 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BoT surprises with a cut, while also throwing its hands up in the air

• The BoT surprised almost all forecasters, including us, with an extra 25bp cut to its policy rate to 1.00%.
• At the same time, though, it has conceded the battle against structurally subdued GDP growth…
• …We still believe that 1.00% will mark the terminal rate, but more CPI misses could force another cut.

25 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian electronics exports still booming, thanks to AI demand

• Malaysian exports continue to defy expectations, soaring by 19.6% in January, due to the AI boom…
• …CPI inflation remains elevated, but only because of a sewerage cost increase that affected housing.
• Singaporean core inflation showed a surprise seasonally adjusted month-to-month decline.