PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 January 2026

Strong Malaysian Q4 GDP points to no rate cut next week

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, December 2025

• In one line: Their latest slip aside, exports to the US are seeing some consolidation.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 January 2026

More confirmation that food price pressures are coming back in India

15 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Big shifts in Vietnamese policy on the eve of the 14th Party Congress

• Conservatives within Vietnam’s ruling party look to be reasserting themselves ahead of the Congress…
• …The big U-turn on the annual credit quota suggests to us that 2026 will see one rate hike.
• Thailand’s opposition PP looks poised to win in February, but acute political uncertainty will linger.

13 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Raising our 2026 India CPI forecast to over 4%, as food prices turn

• Food deflation in India is receding quickly, pushing headline inflation up further, to 1.3% in December…
• …We’ve raised our 2026 average forecast to 4.1%, but underlying inflation remains very benign.
• Indonesian retail sales growth has hit a 20-month high, despite the big holes in discretionary goods.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 12 January 2026

Recovering sales growth in Indonesia hiding big holes under the surface

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Taiwan, December 2025

• In one line: Export growth eases, but Q4 GDP remains on track for a millennia-high.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 January 2026

Sales growth in Malaysia dips

12 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's exports finally temper but will still reach new highs in Q4

• Taiwan’s AI boom is losing momentum, with December seeing the first cooling in exports…
• …Export growth will continue to slow in 2026, due to high base effects, despite aggressive AI spending.
• Malaysian retail sales growth slid in December, but this probably won’t matter much for Q4 GDP.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, December 2025

• In one line: Mild.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 January 2026

Reviving food inflation should soon return Thai CPI to the black

8 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor No need to rethink our February BSP cut call after hot December CP

• The Philippines’ hot December CPI was no surprise to us; we still expect a February BSP rate cut.
• Thai deflation eased as much as expected in December, but core disappointed to the downside.
• Taiwanese CPI inched up in December, but we think it will trend down further this year.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 January 2026

GDP growth in Vietnam surprisingly holds steady above 8%
A robust end to the year for Vietnamese exports, but momentum continues to fade
December bump salvages Vietnamese real retail sales in Q4
Rising food inflation in Vietnam cushions what could have been a bigger December deceleration
Encouraging, but Philippine sales are still broadly struggling
Philippine food inflation is finally reviving

7 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Reasons to believe Vietnam's Q4 GDP growth shock is the peak

• GDP growth in Vietnam surprised massively to the upside in Q4, rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3…
• …But we still expect to see a sustained moderation this year; our revised 2026 forecast is 7.5%.
• Export momentum has almost vanished, FDI is rolling over, and wage growth is softening.

6 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Singapore GDP ends 2025 on a high, but we expect this to fade

• Singapore ended 2025 strongly, with GDP growth accelerating to 5.7% in Q4, from 4.3% in Q3.
• Manufacturing drove the uptick, led by pharmaceuticals and electronics exports…
• …We think the headline was inflated by tariff-related front-loading that could fade in coming quarters.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 January 2026

The H2 surge in ASEAN manufacturing ends on a soft note
Slump in Indonesian export growth should soon bottom-out
Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation in Indonesia

5 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Festive rewind: India's Nov. IP trick; strong Thai US exports are no cure

• India’s punchy November IP print is a big head-fake; cooling manufacturing will hit Q4 GDP growth.
• Thailand’s exports to the US are still soaring, but likely to no real avail for the broader economy…
• …The overall Q4 numbers to date suggest the economy faces a real risk of a technical recession.

22 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor CBC holds rates, with economic growth poised to be best globally

• Taiwan’s CBC held rates steady last week; strong growth has removed the need for easing…
• …Still, growth is increasingly precarious, with exports—and GDP—heavily reliant on the AI boom.
• The silver lining is the CBC can now save a rate cut for when a genuine shock materialises.

EM Asia Datanote: Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) Decision, December 2025

• In one line: No rate cut needed.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.