China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- - CHINA’S ACTIVITY TICKING OVER ENOUGH
- - BOJ SIGNALS BOND BUYING TO SLOW
- - STRONG EXPORTS ALLOW BOK’S MORE HAWKISH STANCE
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea’s 20-day exports continued their uptrend in June, thanks to base effects and chip demand.
- Exports to the US are soaring, while shipments to China rose modestly; but the EU market is still weak.
- Export value growth is outpacing volume growth, thanks to rising semiconductor prices.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean exports power ahead thanks to AI-chip shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean WDA 20-day exports forge ahead, thanks to AI chip boom
Japan's consumer inflation ticks up, despite softening flash PMI readings
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s consumer inflation rose in May, due to the phasing out of household energy subsidies.
- Cost-push inflation is set to return in H2, reflecting the lagged impact of the weak JPY.
- But the June flash PMIs point to flagging domestic economic activity; what a headache for the BoJ!
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng on Wednesday hinted the Bank is likely to start bond trading.
- The definition of M1 will probably be broadened, after the dramatic plunge in May.
- The Bank expects credit growth to remain slow, given China’s changing economic growth model.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's exports buoyed by US and Chinese demand, despite falling shipments to the EU
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s credit grew in May for the first time in six months, as government-bond issuance surged.
- Home-loan demand was still feeble, though the data are clouded by existing-mortgage repayments
- May M1 posted a record dive, as businesses shifted money after, in effect, a regulatory deposit-rate cut.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May activity data point to a modest uptick in consumer spending on services and appliances.
- Industrial-equipment upgrade policies are propelling fixed asset investment growth.
- Expect little shift in policy direction; the focus will be on the implementation of existing policy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China activity bolstered by equipment upgrade and home appliance trade-in policies, despite weak property and auto sales
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Government bond issuance props up credit creation, as M1 takes a dive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left its policy rate targets unchanged and committed to paring back bond purchases.
- Details of tapering will be revealed in July after consulting the market; the amount is likely “significant”.
- We still expect only one rate hike this year, as consumption will likely take longer to recover.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Producer price reflation hastens in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's CPI print points to sluggish domestic demand; Producer price reflation hastens in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China will probably temper its response to the EU’s EV tariffs; a full-blown trade war should be avoided.
- Labour Day holiday tourism likely boosted retail sales in May; car sales remain weak amid price cuts.
- May’s jump in government-bond issuance should keep fixed asset investment ticking over.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
- Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
- More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+