4 February 2025 China+Monitor China likely to temper its response to the US's opening move on tariffs

• China is likely to be restrained in its retaliation to the US tariff hike announced over the weekend.
• A limited trade war is more likely than a near-term grand bargain. Goodwill gestures seem likely.
• The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January but held up better than the official gauge.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, January

In much better shape than the headline suggests

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, January

Caixin PMI holds up better than official index

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 February 2025: Caixin PMI holds up better than official PMI

China's Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Korean PMI rebounds with underlying export growth in decent shape

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, January

Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 January 2025: Tokyo inflation bumps up

Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 February 2025 China+ Monitor DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors

• DeepSeek shows China can make cutting edge AI models, even if the training cost claims are murky.
• Chinese AI firms are likely to trail closely behind cutting-edge US leaders and improve in some ways.
• The PBoC’s asymmetric reaction function means the USD CNY downside is larger than the upside.

Duncan WrigleyChina+