Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 June 2024: Caixin PMI rises; Korean PMI hits two-year high

China's Caixin PMI rises, thanks to robust consumer goods output

Korean manufacturing PMI hits a two-year high

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 May 2024: China's NBS PMIs surprised to the downside

Manufacturing activities flounder in May on weakening domestic and external demand

Non-manufacturing PMI stalls as construction activity slow sharply

Japan’s Tokyo inflation accelerates on the back of expiring energy subsidies

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 May 2024: April's industrial profits show slower recovery

April's industrial profits show slower recovery due to protracted reflation cycle

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 June 2024 China+ Monitor US tariffs on "new trio" to have limited impact on Chinese exports

  • The US has proposed new tariffs on Chinese imports, which will have limited impact, in our view.
  • Lithium batteries likely will be most affected, among other items targeted, with the US more exposed to it.
  • China’s manufacturing activity shrank unexpectedly in May, suggesting more stimulus might be needed.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

31 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's new property support measures will need beefing up

  • China’s new property-market measures aim to stabilise the sector, rather than return to the boom times.
  • The focus on housing-inventory reduction is the right direction, but the funding so far is too small.
  • First-tier cities will probably bottom out first, but overall a drawn-out rebound is still on the cards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

30 May 2024 China+ Monitor Manufacturing profits in rude health as overall profits stall

  • China’s industrial profit growth was unchanged in April; the recovery is weaker than previously thought.
  • A slowing reflation cycle is to blame, but also excess capacity and rising input costs.
  • Manufacturing profits remain solid, but expect more policy support for the economic recovery.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

28 May 2024 China+ Monitor Weak yen and higher import costs likely to lift Japan's inflation in H2

  • Japan’s consumer inflation continued to slow in April, with a notable cooling in food inflation.
  • The phased removal of energy subsidies, then higher import costs, will lift inflation in the rest of the year.
  • Japan is still far from seeing sustained inflation based on consumption growth; no rate hike until Q4.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 May 2024: Japan's consumer inflation still cooling

Japan’s consumer inflation still cooling, as the BoJ monitors wage inflation and the impact of the weak JPY

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, May

In one line: The Bank of Korea stands pat in May, citing upside risks to inflation

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan’s manufacturing activity expands for the first time in a year, largely driven by improvements in output and new orders.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23 May 2024: The BoK stays put in May, citing upside risks to inflation

The Bank of Korea stands pat in May, citing upside risks to inflation

Japan’s manufacturing activity expands for the first time in a year, largely driven by improvements in output and new orders.

Services activity continues to grow at solid pace in May 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

24 May 2024 China+ Monitor BoK signals delay to rate cuts on rising inflation risks

  • The BoK stood pat in May, citing rising inflation risks due to strengthening economic conditions.
  • The rate-cut timing is less certain now due to volatile expectations of the Fed’s move and geopolitical risk . 
  • Japan’s flash PMI surveys show tentative signs of growth broadening to manufacturing.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 May 2024: Japan's exports maintain steady growth

Japan's exports maintain steady growth, led by cars and chips

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, May

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports hit hard by May’s fewer working days but underlying momentum was improving on a WDA basis.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 May 2024: Korea's 20-day exports hit hard by fewer working days

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports hit hard by May’s fewer working days but underlying momentum was improving on a WDA basis.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 May 2024 China+ Monitor Korea's export recovery continues, when adjusted for working days

  • Korean 20-day exports slowed sharply in May because of working-day effects.
  • The underlying trend is actually improving after adjustment. Chip shipments remain the major driver.
  • We expect no change at the upcoming BoK meeting but have pushed back our first rate cut to Q4.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

21 May 2024 China+ Monitor China's new property measures a good first step, but not enough

  • Policymakers on Friday announced a raft of property support measures aimed at tackling oversupply...
  • ...But the funding allocated to buy up unsold housing inventory is just the start, and more will be needed.
  • In April, second-hand housing prices plunged at their steepest rate since September 2014.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 May 2024: China's banks held LPR unchanged

China's banks held LPR steady in May; More funding is need to prop up the real estate sector

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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