China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Korean PMI rebounds with underlying export growth in decent shape
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- DeepSeek shows China can make cutting edge AI models, even if the training cost claims are murky.
- Chinese AI firms are likely to trail closely behind cutting-edge US leaders and improve in some ways.
- The PBoC’s asymmetric reaction function means the USD CNY downside is larger than the upside.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s real exports jumped in December, reflecting front-loading ahead of potential US tariff hikes.
- The January flash manufacturing PMIs fell, with new export orders remaining weak.
- Business expectations are still relatively strong though, despite worries about trade risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Vanke’s latest travails show persistent developer debt issues, despite slightly better property-market data.
- Residential area sold and developer funding rose in December but are still at low levels.
- China’s tier-one cities are likely to lead the upturn; with many cities lumbered with large housing supply,
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s official PMIs unexpectedly fell in January; manufacturing activity dropped to a five-month low.
- The services PMI reversed December’s gain and fell back to the period-average prior to that month.
- Manufacturers and developers are optimistic about the outlook despite local and global headwinds.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S Q4 ACTIVITY BUMP IS LIKELY TO FADE
- - BOJ IS KEEN TO NORMALISE RATES
- - BOK IS LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoJ raised the policy rate on Friday; Governor Ueda hinted at further rate hikes at a measured pace.
- The Bank is optimistic about continued steady wage inflation this year, given signs of labour shortages.
- It lifted its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025, due to higher import costs and rice inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's export growth rebounds m/m SA, thanks to improved shipments to the EU and US
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's benchmark lending rates unchanged, as PBoC puts immediate focus on currency stability
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's benchmark lending rates unchanged, as PBoC puts immediate focus on currency stability
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's official GDP hits 2024 target thanks to Q4 stimulus sugar rush, but domestic demand is still lagging output growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC is stressing USDCNY support and holding rates steady, but we see this as tactical.
- Domestic demand is still lagging behind output growth, despite the Q4 GDP print.
- Currency depreciation will be part of the toolkit in response to likely aggressive US trade action.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q4 GDP growth surpassed market expectations, thanks to stimulus policies.
- But domestic demand remains weak overall, especially compared to vigorous output growth.
- China will need to step up fiscal policy support to nurse its recovery, as it faces export growth risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK delivered a ‘dovish hold’ yesterday due to FX-volatility worries, in line with our forecast.
- The MPB recognises the need to shore up the economy but wants to learn more of Trump’s plans.
- The Bank is likely to resume rate cuts in February, as downside risks to domestic growth are rising.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Credit growth propped up by government bond issuance, but sagging long-term corporate loans bode ill for investment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
