CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 March 2024

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February; Upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, February

In one line: China’s upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, February

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February, thanks to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, February

In one line:  Investors return to China’s stock markets in February

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

12 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's CPI bounces; upstream industries still see deflationary pressure

• China’s CPI rebounded due to the timing of Lunar New Year and stronger demand in food and services.
• By contrast, PPI slid further as deflationary pressure on upstream industries persists.
• We expect headline CPI disinflation to resume, and China continues to export deflation to rest of world.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's ramps up fiscal support, notably for industrial development

• The Two Sessions confirm China will mainly rely on fiscal policy to support growth this year.
• We estimate the impact of additional fiscal support at 1.5% of GDP, partly offsetting the property drag.
• Regions are rolling out “ future industry” plans, anticipating the next generation of high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, January-February

In one line: China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb; the jump in the year-to-date headline was due partly to base effects.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 March 2024

Japanese wages pick up, in advance of the Spring union talks

China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 March 2024 China+ Monitor China exports more to emerging markets in January and February

• China’s export growth increased in January-to-February, partly due to the low base from last year.
• Exports to emerging markets have risen noticeably, while shipments to ASEAN were flat.
• New measures are being proposed at the NPC to prop up domestic demand and the property market.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 March 2024: China sticks to targeted support

Premier Li confirms targeted stimulus only, as China reshapes its growth model; Tokyo inflation rises

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

6 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's PMIs suggest weak labour market undermines domestic demand

• The February services PMIs were both respectable, albeit still below long-term averages...
• ...But weak employment indices highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
• Premier Li yesterday indicated a steady course, with no big stimulus, and outlined targeted measures.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 4 March 2024

In one line: Korean PMI reports softer expansion in manufacturing activities

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

5 March 2024 China+ Monitor Korean working-day-adjusted export growth vigorous, due to chip upturn

• Underlying growth in Korean exports was stronger in February, adjusted for working-day differences.
• Surging demand for semiconductors drove exports higher, thanks to a sustained ICT upturn.
• The BoK will start lowering rates only in Q3, owing to inflationary pressure and household-debt risks.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, China, February

In one line: China’s manufacturing sector treads water during Lunar New Year 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 March 2024

China’s manufacturing sector treads water during Lunar New Year 

Holiday spending buoys China’s services activity 

Japanese manufacturing still struggling 

Ignore the headline export slowdown; Korean working-day adjusted export growth is vigorous

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, February

In one line: Ignore the headline export slowdown; Korean working-day adjusted export growth is vigorous

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

4 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's Lunar New Year holiday spending splurge won't last

• Holiday spending drove a modest uptick in the February services PMI, but this is set to fade again.
• The manufacturing PMIs moved sideways over February, waiting for a stimulus lift.
• Premier Li is likely to announce only targeted support for consumption and investment at tomorrow ’s NPC.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 March 2024 China+ Monitor Premier Li likely to announce only targeted support for consumption

• Premier Li is likely to announce targeted support for auto and home appliance consumption at the NPC...
• ...But this should be incremental demand support, rather than a big stimulus.
• China’s recovery will probably remain lacklustre but gradually gain traction in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 February 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's CPI falls less than expected due largely to data anomalies

• Japan’s national prices rise at the slowest rate since Q1 2021, thanks to softer food and energy prices.
• The surge in overseas package-holiday inflation has distorted the outturn away from the consensus.
• BoJ will be more confident to normalise rates but, given Fed’s delayed move, policy will tighten by June.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, January

In one line: Japanese inflation slows less than expected in January

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+