China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
October rate hike seems off the cards
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC official hints that RRR cut will be the next move
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ holds fast, offering rosier view on consumption activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Consumer inflation rises on the back of food inflation, notably rice shortages
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ holds steady as Japan's national inflation rises modestly
China's LPRs unchanged
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August developer-funding figures improved only because of policy support, namely loans.
- Home sales remained weak in August, as the impact of the May policy support is fading.
- A long, grinding recovery is in prospect, with no sign of a change in approach from drip-fed support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August headline credit growth was pretty steady, but due only to government-bond issuance...
- ...Private credit demand looks weak, and on-balance-sheet bill financing was suspiciously large.
- The PBoC is preparing “incremental policy” measures, likely an RRR cut and structural tools.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s retail sales growth faded in August, as people held back on big-ticket purchases.
- Bad weather delayed construction, despite a large funding boost from government-bond issuance.
- Policymakers are unlikely to hit the policy panic button, even if it risks missing 2024’s growth target.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Domestic demand fades in August, with fiscal policy slow to gain traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Government bond surge props up broad credit growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Recent BoJ policymaker statements signal intent to keep raising rates if warranted by inflation.
- The carry trade appears to have largely unwound, but lower oil prices could slow the pace of rate hikes.
- Revised Q2 GDP growth was partly bolstered by short-term factors; Q3 growth is likely to slow.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s early reporting data point to softening domestic demand in August.
- Officials are likely to blame poor activity readings on bad weather, but that’s only part of the story.
- Structural adjustment is dragging on demand, with piecemeal policy support only a partial offset.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s disappointing August core consumer inflation data point to persistently weak demand.
- Headline CPI was boosted by a short-term spike in fresh vegetable prices.
- A sharper drop in producer prices reflects excess industrial supply and the laggardly stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The upcoming seasonal rebound in construction activity won’t decisively turn around falling producer prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's slowing core consumer inflation indicates weak demand
Producer deflation steepens as construction activity splutters
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A PBoC official on Thursday hinted that an RRR cut is imminent...
- ...even though the bond market’s performance in August indicates ample liquidity.
- A likely cut to existing-mortgage rates won’t move the needle on consumption.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth held up well in July, thanks to both bonuses and regular pay rises.
- Headline wage growth is likely to fade in the coming months, but that won’t shift the BoJ.
- The timing of the BoJ’s next rate hike is dependent on its perception of market risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's wage surge largely propelled by bonuses, but regular pay also making gains
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August services PMIs indicate steady demand growth, but activity was hit by bad weather.
- Services firms cut prices, in response to fierce competition, despite rising costs.
- Consumers remain much more keen to spend on tourism rather than big-ticket items or housing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Severe competition drives services price cuts in China, despite resilient demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
