China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Strong trade surplus likely offsets valuation drag on China’s FX reserves
In one line: China’s RatingDog composite PMI signals faster Q2 GDP growth; services PMI lifted by holiday demand
In one line: Hong Kong PMI partially recovers on Golden Week tourism demand and construction.
In one line: Korea’s WDA export growth accelerates further on rising chip demand.
In one line: China’s RatingDog PMI reinforces NBS evidence of softer industrial production and export growth in May
In one line: Korea’s manufacturing activity hit a 5 year high on precautionary stock-building
In one line: Holiday services demand lifts China's non-manufacturing activity, while construction activity recovers slightly
In one line: China’s official PMI weighed down by May holiday disruption and payback from March’s overshoot.
In one line: Regular wage growth rose above 3% for three straight months
Consumption activity rebounded in April
- Japanese consumer spending surged in April, albeit mainly due to tax changes that spurred light truck sales.
- Solid real wage growth is partly cushioning consumers from energy worries, however.
- Governor Ueda hinted on Wednesday at a June rate hike, stressing inflation risks over growth risks.
- The outbound investment crackdown goes beyond brokers, foreshadowing greater economic control.
- Investors should be aware of the potential implications for assets from such measures in China‘s policy agenda.
- Hong Kong’s PMI partially recovered in May, thanks to Golden Week holiday demand as well as construction.
In one line: Korea inflation rise in May makes July hike likely
- China’s urban-renewal plan has unduly excited stock investors; it implies a modest boost for home demand…
- …The focus is urban investment, unlike the resettlement policy, which directly creates demand.
- New BoK Governor Shin on Monday again signalled a likely rate hike; May inflation surged on energy costs.
- China’s May PMIs point to a short-term improvement in construction and manufacturing.
- Still, Q2 average industrial output growth is likely to be below 5%, raising the chances of targeted support.
- Domestic demand remains sluggish, with petrol-car sales almost halving year-over-year in May.
In one line: BoJ won't be swayed by Tokyo inflation dip
- The new BoK Governor, Mr. Shin, is signalling a rate hike, likely as soon as July, worried about financial risks.
- Korea’s resurgent semiconductor exports out weigh the growth risk from higher energy costs.
- The BoJ is likely to raise the policy rate on June 16, despite Tokyo inflation slowing in May.
In one line: BoK stays put today but new Governor Shin signals rate hikes on the way
- Chinese youth unemployment is hovering near historic highs, with AI only the latest factor weighing on hiring.
- We estimate the 10pp rise in youth unemployment since 2018 has knocked around 0.5pp off GDP growth.
- Still, China’s pursuit of AI as a critical growth engine aligns with public excitement and trust in AI.
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- - CHINA'S Q2 WEAK START ONLY PARTLY DUE TO IRAN WAR
- - BOJ LIKELY TO RESUME POLICY NORMALISATION IN JUNE
- - NEW BOK GOVERNOR LIKELY TO SET HAWKISH TONE
- Industrial profits accelerated in April, supported by PPI reflation and better margins in the upstream sector.
- Gains were uneven, skewed towards energy and high-tech sectors, but broader momentum is improving.
- Profit growth will likely ease later this year as external demand softens and energy-price support fades.
